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  #11  
Old 9th April 2015, 06:00 PM
woof43 woof43 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rinconpaul
Why the big difference?


Not that I have ever looked at what your quoting,
But in a lot of instances a logarithmic scale is used for scores above 100 and linear below, this is what is employed for something like Beyer's scores.
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  #12  
Old 9th April 2015, 06:06 PM
evajb001 evajb001 is offline
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woof43 interesting you say that, when I was looking at how fav rankings compare between field sizes I found that the prices fit pretty closely to both exponential and logarithmic scales. If you plotted the rankings and prices over time for field sizes i'm guessing you'd be able to come up with an equation that estimates the prices closely to R&S P$, if you want to go to that effort i mean.
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  #13  
Old 9th April 2015, 06:35 PM
Rinconpaul Rinconpaul is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by evajb001
woof43 interesting you say that, when I was looking at how fav rankings compare between field sizes I found that the prices fit pretty closely to both exponential and logarithmic scales. If you plotted the rankings and prices over time for field sizes i'm guessing you'd be able to come up with an equation that estimates the prices closely to R&S P$, if you want to go to that effort i mean.


Been there, done that, but can't quite agree. Sure the charts differ, but I think it's more a duplication of this scenario: 6 blokes go to the club for a Sat punt. Natural selection (Fibonacci) will probably see 3 blokes back the fave, 2 the 2nd and 1 the 3rd. It's just nature and it produces a log curve. Look at my thread on the Golden Number 1.618. Using that ratio alone,is the almost the exact sequence for rank strike rates.
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  #14  
Old 9th April 2015, 06:41 PM
Mark Mark is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rinconpaul
Layers - Your underlays are in the first 2 or 3 faves.

Now every race is different


If you wish to make profits short term/long term whatever, look no further than these 2 lines. It's all you need to know.
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  #15  
Old 9th April 2015, 07:25 PM
Shaun Shaun is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rinconpaul
I've said it before, and I'll say it again, "Shaun is one of a kind! Not only is he brilliant and benevolent but with a heart of gold to match"

Cheers


That's how i learned, from the help i got.
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  #16  
Old 9th April 2015, 08:03 PM
Rinconpaul Rinconpaul is offline
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Default A Tale of Two Cities

No this isn't a Dickens novel, it's Beaudesrt 11, and the two different tales of probabilities.

It's useful if you plot a chart from excel before committing to a betting decision. You know, "A picture's worth a..."

The blue line is the good old predictable Betfair back price. It always starts around 30% and follows the tried and true path to oblivion, as that's what everyone expects, it's inherent in humankind.

The red line is the rating courtesy of R&S . Wow!...the 1st fave is looking like it'll fall over, and did (2% ~ 33%). The 2nd fave won but not a value Back bet (15% ~ 28%)
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  #17  
Old 10th April 2015, 04:07 PM
Rinconpaul Rinconpaul is offline
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Default Chart of the Day?

Chart of the Day goes to Geelong #4. Jive Music got up and won at $85. Why isn't that a surprise....coz it was rated at $6..??
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