Smartgambler
Pro-Punter

Go Back   OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums > Public Forums > Horse Racing
User Name
Password
Register FAQ Search Today's Posts Mark all topics as read

To advertise on these
forums, e-mail us.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
  #11  
Old 20th August 2017, 09:10 PM
walkermac walkermac is online now
Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 849
Default

Don't know how it posted the half-written profile earlier on. My computer froze and when it eventually started working again there was a warning message saying that I couldn't post more than once every 30 seconds! "*More* than once?!". I marked it for deletion, so hopefully a mod cleans that up.

Anyone else want to do a profile for a likely Cup runner? Go ahead
Reply With Quote
  #12  
Old 20th August 2017, 09:31 PM
Chiquita Chiquita is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 513
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chiquita
Current Cup favourite Red Cardinal running tonight at Deauville, France
On a hat trick

Melbourne Cup best at the moment
Red Cardinal $19.50
Reply With Quote
  #13  
Old 21st August 2017, 10:09 AM
walkermac walkermac is online now
Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 849
Default

Here's Red Cardinal in the Prix Kergolay last night:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2QY6ZP1p8Y8

He came 5th. So is he ruled out as a chance for the Melbourne Cup? I'm not so sure....

The caller said that the track was Good to Soft (which is a fair range, but I guess it was over the whole circuit; the results I saw recorded it only as Good). Red Cardinal had heretofore not run on worse than Good and he certainly seemed to sink and struggle at times. On further investigation, I found these quotes regarding a run earlier this prep:
Quote:
Jockey Eduardo Pedroza in a first statement on the run: "I have caught the inner track and could save some lengths there. I had a bit of concern because of the soaked soil, since he does not really like it. But Red Cardinal has a lot of class. "

It was similar to coach Andreas Wöhler, who already mentioned the next goal: "The ground was already a bit loose, it does not seem (to) like that [..]"
Positioning in the race was not ideal either, this time running as a backmarker. His pedigree above doesn't indicate a strong finishing burst (though this would, of course, be overruled in the face of actual, physical evidence).

I'm not sure the pace of the race did Red Cardinal any favours either. It seemed to be pretty fast early. The final time of 3'09.56 was the fastest in more than 30 years. Protectionist won the 2014 edition with a time of 3'30.08. Wohler seems to think a fast early pace suits however: "The faster they go for him the better it is; pace helps him a lot". ...or is that reverse psychology?!

Red Cardinal was the favourite for this race earlier on, but started at $4 (out from $3.20). The winner Marmelo opened at $4.40 and started at $3.40. Marmelo had a 10L win on Soft early in his career, so perhaps that could be why. They had comparable R&S ratings so it wouldn't be surprising if one would beat the other under more favourable conditions.

I guess we wait to see what happens next. The best indication would be that he gets the first plane out and has a run in Australia on what would surely be a firmer track. One plan floated earlier on was the Herbert Power (over 2400m).

Odds are now out to $26 for The Cup and the new favourite is Admire Deus $16.
Reply With Quote
  #14  
Old 22nd August 2017, 04:53 PM
walkermac walkermac is online now
Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 849
Default



Admire Deus
6yo ch h
01/01/2011
Admire Don (JPN) - Royal Card (JPN) (Sunday Silence (USA))

22s: 5-2-5

Is success in the Tenno Sho a good indicator of suitability for the Melbourne Cup?

Curren Mirotic was set to "embarass" the rest of the field in 2016, after being beaten in a photo finish in the Spring Tenno Sho (in a time over 3200m that was faster than any Melbourne Cup in history). He came 23rd.

Fame Game in 2015? 2nd by 0.3L in the Tenno Sho and.....13th and 6L back in the Melbourne Cup.

Admire Rakti in 2014? Well....

Tokai Trick in 2010? Had 4 goes at the Tenno Sho and finished between 4th and 9th. 12th place and 12 lengths back in the Cup.

But what about Delta Blues and Pop Rock?! They finished 1-2 in 2006! Delta Blues was 10th and 14L back in the Tenno Sho. Pop Rock hadn't even made the field for a Tenno Sho before it's Melbourne Cup run (it ran two later in its career and came 4th and 12th respectively).

Much of the buzz regarding Admire Deus is with respect to his effort in his last run, the Spring Tenno Sho. He finished in 4th, only 1.85L behind the winner Kitasan Black who ran a new race record of 3'12.5. It's undoubtedly an impressive effort, but is he a deserved Melbourne Cup favourite?

I've yet to see it reported that Admire Deus was at odds of 100-1. Nor that he had a charmed run, racing forward and finding the rail and cover behind the winner after the first bend, as a pace horse dragged the field along. Nothing ran on and the runners more or less kept their order to the finish line.

Hasn't been under $25 in his past four races. Hasn't won a race since March 2015 (12 starts since then). Has never won or placed in a G1 after 10 starts. Never won or placed anti-clockwise. You'd want your fingers crossed for an inside barrier: 5w from 13 starts (barrier 1-6), 0w from 9 starts (barriers 7+). And hopefully the official handicapper doesn't buy into the hype and make him topweight, as in 12 attempts at carrying 57kg or more, Admire Deus has no wins and only two placings.

Another indicator to be wary of is that his Japanese owners sold him! Apparently that's quite rare and Australian Bloodstock, the new owner, only got him once the Kondo stable decided to bring just the one runner from their stable to Australia. They stuck with Albert, who finished one place and 3 further lengths back in the Spring Tenno Sho.

Admire Deus's Dosage profile is (5-0-9-0-2), which isn't very impressive, particularly as much of his heritage is from North American and Irish stock and thus catered for by the standard list of chefs de race. The balance of influences makes for slightly better reading with a DI = 1.46 and CD = 0.38, but ideally you'd want that CD at least in the negatives. That sort of figure indicates that 2100m would be likeliest to best suit him (3 of his first 6 races were victories over 2000m; his other two wins were races #9 and #10 over 2400m and 2500m - both first up after a spell).

Conduit Mare Profile is (4-6-2-10-3), Triads are (12-18-15), and Conduit Index = 0.89. It seems to point to that 2000-2100m mark as well (which is not necessarily because this dosage and conduit mare stuff works, just that the breeding may have resulted due to someone applying it; if you don't know about it have a read here: http://www.teamvalor.com/dosage/dosage.htm)

I don't think he's a genuine winning chance, as long as it's a typically-run race. If the race falls his way like it did in the Tenno Sho he's as likely to win as Pirates of Penzance was (which wasn't 100-1, given that his history showed that he could run 2500m+ in group company and his prior run in the Moonee Valley Cup lead to a track record). I doubt Admire Reus will get a run in Australian ahead of the Cup (if he even gets a start, Australian Bloodstock have said they will hold him 'til next season if he doesn't respond well). Odds of $41 sound fair to me, $34 if he gets an inside draw.

So why are Australian Bloodstock so keen and think that he profiles as the right horse for the Melbourne Cup, per Director Jamie Lovett? There's a school of thought that the winner needs to be in the first 'so many' with 'so many' metres to go (they've started reporting on it during the raceday coverage, I just can't remember the 'so many's). Admire Deus appears to usually run in the first third of the field and can clearly run time, so is likely to find this position with a good gate. His best latterday performances also seem to be when he's first up, as is likely to be the case when flying to Australia for quarantine and then dodging the handicapper. Only 1 of that bunch in the prime position can go on to win the race, obviously. Admire Reus will need some more luck than usual if he is that horse...
Reply With Quote
  #15  
Old 25th August 2017, 12:28 AM
walkermac walkermac is online now
Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 849
Default



Who Shot Thebarman
9yo b g
02/11/2008
Yamanin Vital (NZ) - Ears Carol (NZ) (Carolingian (AUS))

42s: 9-7-3

No horse of 9 years of age or older has ever won the Melbourne Cup. Two 8 year olds have; the last one was in 1938. Who Shot Thebarman has fallen short at three previous attempts in the race, with a 4.5L 3rd his best result. If he was ever likely to win, it was either going to be in 2014 or 2015.

That being said, he's still punching away in decent company. His last race was in the Sydney Cup in April, finishing a close 2nd to the international raider Polarisation and just ahead of Big Duke. WTSB was carrying 57kg on a heavy track, whereas the winner only had 51.5kg. Per his part-owner Dan O'Leary, it was only the weight that beat him.

Big Duke and Polarisation are $26 and $34 respectively in early Cup markets, whereas Who Shot Thebarman is $41. Obviously they're taking his age into account, but he certainly doesn't look like a hot winning chance either. Of 18 Group 1 starts he's only won 1 and that was at his first attempt: the Auckland Cup in 2014. 6 of his 9 victories were in New Zealand. He hasn't won a race anywhere since November 2015. Since then, from his 16 starts: 0w-6p. For many of these horses you have to guess whether they'll make the distance, WSTB has had 8 starts over 3200m for 1 win and 3 places. That doesn't sound very impressive, but when the average field size is 17.5, it shows he's actually batted quite well.

Using the Australian and NZ sires, his Dosage Profile is (7-4-15-4-0), DI = 1.61 and CD = 0.47. Plenty of numbers in the profile indicate good breeding, but the balance indicates a best distance of 2050m-ish.

His conduit mare profile is (8-2-3-6-10). Triads of (13-11-19) and Conduit Index of 0.72. There's no exact scale but the indications are maybe...up to 2600m as best distance? Between the two estimates you'll find Barman's best results: 2000m to 2600m: 21 starts for 6 wins and 5 places.

He needs a fast pace to do well. He tends to run towards the rear, so needs luck in running. I don't think he has Father Time on his side nor a fast enough finish to threaten younger, lighter-weighted runners but I also reckon that he shouldn't be ruled out of exotics, particularly if he gets an inside draw and/or a horse like Lasqueti Spirit, for example, is dragging the field along.

$41 doesn't sound far off being right. ....but at shorter place odds than that win price implies
Reply With Quote
  #16  
Old 25th August 2017, 10:34 PM
walkermac walkermac is online now
Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 849
Default

2016 Melbourne Cup winner Almandin resumes tomorrow at Moonee Valley, Race 5 - 2:45PM in the MSC Signs Handicap over 2040m. He ran in it last year (the 3rd race of 6 in his prep), finishing 5th of 12, 4.6L from the winner.

Also in the race and Melbourne Cup Market are: Hans Holbein at $26. Time To Test at $201. Rose of Virginia at $301.

Almandin is presently at $21.

It'll be interesting to see how they plan his Spring. I suspect he won't go great on Saturday, as this performance would be considered for his handicap. The weights are declared on September 8th, whereupon penalties can only be given to the winner of an internationally recognised Listed, Group or Graded flat race: for handicapped races >= 1600m, or non-handicaps >= 2300m. He's already put in a nomination for the Cox Plate (2040m) which is WFA, so is penalty exempt. You'd imagine 2 more races between this weekend and the Cox; he's starting his campaign up at 2040m what can he run in without fear of a penalty? Turnbull Stakes (Caulfield, 7th Oct, 2000m)? Or the Caulfield Stakes (Caulfield, 14th Oct)? Otherwise there's a couple of races in Sydney. Does he jump down in distance? Or does he just risk being weighted out of this year's race (if it's a target at all)?

Last year, post the MSC Signs Handicap, he had to win a lead-up race to pass the first ballot clause (the Listed Harry White 2400m). He likely would have wanted to earn penalty weight to increase his chance of making the field last season, hence him contesting The Bart Cummings; which he won and gained ballot exemption. There's little advantage in him running well in these this year.

Lloyd Williams was complaining about the lack of staying race options in an interview early last month. He was also said to "be considering the Group I Makybe Diva Stakes (1600m) on September 16 as the import's first-up assignment". It looks like they've come up with something else, but it's difficult to see where they'll go from there.
Reply With Quote
  #17  
Old 26th August 2017, 03:00 PM
suds suds is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 657
Thumbs up

Almandin, very pleasing first-up 2nd at Moonee Valley today..
Reply With Quote
  #18  
Old 27th August 2017, 12:43 AM
walkermac walkermac is online now
Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 849
Default



Almandin
7yo b g
27/03/2010
Monsun (GER) - Anatola (GER) (Tiger Hill (IRE))

13s : 5-4-1

Almandin in from $21 into equal favouritism at $15, following Saturday's run. The winner of the race, Pacodali is at $51.
Quote:
Williams said his father and racing manager Malcolm McLaren will plot a path to the Melbourne Cup.

"He'll probably have a light campaign into the race but Dad and Malcolm will work that out," Williams said,

"He's an eight-year-old now and he's going to get a lot more weight in the Cup this year, probably around 56kg," Williams said.
He's eight in Australian racing, but would be considered seven-years-old in Europe.

R&S rated his performance a 62, equal to last season's Bart Cummings win and the 2014 German G1 in which he beat Protectionist. Almandin has only had one run rated higher (at 64.5): his victory in the Cup.

He's 3w/3 at <= 55kg. And 2w/10 at > 55kg (including his maiden; really >= 57kg). So they would be especially keen to minimise his handicap - and cross their fingers that the topweight stays in the race and the weights aren't shifted up 1kg like they were last year. I don't think anyone in his camp minded when Pacodali ran past him (there might have even been some sighs of relief!).

Dosage Profile: (0-3-11-8-0). Dosage Index of 0.63. And Centre of Distribution is -0.23. Not alot of numbers in his profile, but the list of chefs-de-race are skewed towards different racing countries than Germany, so it's questionable how accurate they may be in his instance. 'The dosage guy' has quit and who knows what will happen on that front in the future. 2800m-ish is what the CD indicates might be his best distance.

Conduit Mare Profile: (1-5-6-8-4). Triads: (12-19-18). Conduit Index = 0.59. 2500m-ish?

So long as the field doesn't rocket out (similar to last year, obviously) then he's still in with a pretty decent shot. He and Heartbreak City were 4.5L ahead of Hartnell and 6.8L ahead of Qewy in 4th in 2016. I reckon if he improves 4-6L on last year's performance, carrying a heavier weight this time, then he's in the mix again. His first up performance gives every indication that he's going to improve this prep.

$17 for me, at this stage. Depends on the weight he ends up with and which lead-up races he ends up doing.
Reply With Quote
  #19  
Old 29th August 2017, 01:06 AM
walkermac walkermac is online now
Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 849
Default



Jon Snow
4yo b h
21/09/2013
Iffraaj (GB) - Orinda (NZ) (O'reilly (NZ))

12s: 3-1-4

Winter is coming to Caulfield this Saturday at the Memsie Stakes. Jon Snow resumes over 1400m after his G1 win in the Australian Derby last April.

First, the good news: he's got Points Across The Board in his dosage profile: (5-5-15-1-2) and totals more than 20, hinting at good breeding.

His DI = 1.67 and CD = 0.36, implying 2200m should be around his best distance (if you believe in dosage at all). If Conduit Mares are more your flavour, his profile reads (4-4-1-10-5), with triads (9-15-16) and Conduit Index of 0.62. That seems to say that 2500m or so is ideal.

And now for the not so good news: check out his ratings on R&S. You'll see that every peak rating he has achieved has been on Dead or worse. His results show his surface preference in stark light. On Good: 7 starts for 0 wins and 3 thirds. On Dead/Soft/Heavy: 5 starts for 3 wins and 2 places. He looks to be about 3-4 rating points better when the ground has some give in it.

He's passed the ballot clause and it looks like he's amassed enough prizemoney to make the field (unless there's a remarkably high acceptance rate from older horses). I don't think he has a problem making the distance. He also appears to prefer racing in a favourable, forward position. The real issue is the track surface. Certainly the stats could be misleading and his poor performances on good surfaces thus far were actually due to one or more other reasons; that they all occured on a good surface was a fluke. His prep should obviously be monitored to see if that was indeed the case.

Otherwise, he looks like he may be similar to Gallante, who won the Sydney Cup on Soft ground, but was otherwise unbackable on Good. Gallante's record is 10 starts on Good for 0 wins and 3 places. Whereas his record on Soft is 7 starts for 4 wins and 1 placing. If anything, Jon Snow in his career so far, looks even more negatively impacted by an unforgiving surface.

$21 if the track is Soft. $51 if it's Good. Currently $41 on Sportsbet.


Nominations close tomorrow for the Melbourne Cup.
Reply With Quote
  #20  
Old 29th August 2017, 08:05 AM
suds suds is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 657
Default

Entries close at 12 noon today
Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (1 members and 0 guests)
walkermac
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On
Forum Jump



All times are GMT +10. The time now is 09:31 PM.


Powered by: vBulletin Version 3.0.3
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
©2008 OZmium Pty. Ltd. All rights reserved . ACN 091184655