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  #11  
Old 26th September 2017, 11:29 AM
Snert Snert is offline
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Shaun, I think there was a Unitab system on here that claimed 10 winners in a row. I recall it had to be 100 rated and the next best was 93 or less. Don't go to the bank on that though.
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  #12  
Old 26th September 2017, 12:12 PM
Snert Snert is offline
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9. How do you test your systems and confirm they are worth following ?

I'll keep adding to this question. In many cases Vic and NSW respond differently to a similar group of filters, however one of my checks to confirm a system is that both Vic and NSW perform similarly.
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  #13  
Old 26th September 2017, 01:10 PM
Mark Mark is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Snert
History repeats! The percentage of favourites winning has stayed constant,


Too true.
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  #14  
Old 26th September 2017, 03:24 PM
Shaun Shaun is offline
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I picked this up from this forum years ago, i don't use a database and do find this useful.

Quote:
I notice lots of people on this forum and elsewhere plugging away at their systems without the benefit of a big database. Me too. I want to say to these people that you don't need a big database. You just need some scientific sampling.

The science is the same as that which underlies opinion polling and market research. Opinion Pollsters can quite accurately guage the opinions of a 20 million. population using samples as small as 2000. They have a good record of doing so.

Like others I design and try lots of systems. Most fail. I test them like this:

1. First sample = 150 recent races (or bets) If this shows miserable results, forget it. If it gets near to break even or pays POT continue. This sample will include at least one period of three consequitive days.

2. Second sample = 100 races from the same season in previous years (not recent races) but with NO consequitive days. If its near to break even or in POT, continue.

3. Third sample = 100 random races from all seasons trying only one or two races per day from here and there. If its near to break even or in POT, continue. A system MUST pass this test. (If you only sample consequitive days you can hit distorting cycles and mini-cycles. You have to sample against this phenomenon.)

4. Fourth Sample = carefully tabulate results over the last week's races, going back over some days covered in sample 1 but writing it up on a spreadsheet to examine results more closely.

In all cases under-state long-priced winners. It saves averaging results. Set a rule such as "All results over $20 will be recorded as $15 winners". This is essential. The greatest danger in sampling (not a danger in big databases) is that long priced winners blow out your results - they are not really part of the longer strike pattern but just flukes peculiar to that sample.

Also in all samples of 100 I begin by marking down 4 straight losses. This is an added margin of error.

If a system makes it this far and shows a reasonable result I then try it on paper only over a week's live races, continuing the spreadsheet of Sample 4.

If its still ahead then I try it at 50c units in live races. Slow and careful. I used to lash out and say "I have confidence in my methods!" Not any more.

The risk is that you hit a boom day and think you've found the holy grail and overeact. Experience will teach you that many systems romp through the sampling, perform well in live races for a fortnight and then die.

The thing to look for in live sampling is not POT but the same PATTERN of results as in the past results samples. If it shows the same pattern, persist.

Obviously systems that chase longshots require bigger samples to look at longer cycles and patterns.

Here's a trap for new players:

In sampling systems it is easiest to move through one meeting at a time race 1 to race 8 looking for cases of the configuration you are testing.

But in live racing punters tend to move from meeting to meeting these days, so race 1 of the day is at Mornington and race 2 of the day is at Townsville and race 2 is at Randwick, etc.

In which case you cannot apply the patterns of your samples to live racing. If you test it meeting by meeting you will have to bet it meeting by meeting and not across meetings, especially if you are parlaying or loss-chasing etc or depend on a certain strike-rate.

The limitation of sampling is that you tend to only try systems with simple, easy-to-look-up rules rather than complex, finely-tuned rules. But there's nothing wrong with simplicity, I say.

I find the TABQ records the best to sample from. Its an on-line data base of the last two or so years results.

Sampling can be mechanical and time-consuming, but I listen to music and "multi-task". I'm a chronic insomniac anyway and late night TV just isn't what it used to be.

The great advantage to this way of doing things is that my eye passes over hundreds and hundreds of results and fields. While testing one system new observations arise and new ideas come up. You notice patterns. That doesn't happen if you just click the button on a database. I feel like I'm learning more about the game while sampling.

The thing to remember, I reckon, is that in this country we are not playing against the track or the TAB (except as taxpayers) but against each other. This means that you can only win by one of two strategies:

*Do what other punters do and do it better than them.
*Do something other punters aren't doing, exploiting a niche.

Most of my system ideas are looking for a niche.

Happy punting. May you win, but not at my expense. Pari-Mutuel.

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  #15  
Old 27th September 2017, 08:18 AM
Snert Snert is offline
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Here's a system that hasn't made the grade. Misses out because of consistency and NSW being no good.

I don't want anyone coming back and saying they lost on this system. I expect it to lose because I reckon the divvy will go down due to some having a crack at this system as it stands or punting on a combination of most of these filters. I personally think this feels backfitted, even I cannot figure out if I've subconsciously backfitted my own system. That's why my testing is so strict.

Provincial tracks in Vic only
Handicap event
TAB No 1 to 6
ran worse than 3rd last start
Race Distance 1100 to 1800 and 2 to 4 runs this time in
Price range $10 to $30
Either gelding or horse
Career Starts 8 to 40
Must have more than one win but no more than one in five wins
No wins at the distance
Average prizemoney ranking 1 to 6

POT for 10 years up to the end of 2016 is 66% on 478 selections. If anyone can mix this up and find a way to make it profitable in NSW then good luck to them.

TEST IT YOURSELF BEFORE YOU GAMBLE YOUR HARD EARNED
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  #16  
Old 27th September 2017, 08:24 AM
Snert Snert is offline
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I think there's too many filters.
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  #17  
Old 27th September 2017, 08:25 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
I assume by "a database" you mean a commercial one ? Or have you programmed your own?


You didn't answer but by your test system I see its a commercial database. Pretty sure I know which one.

It will get you part of the way but the only way to get a really good edge at system betting is by using information others do not collect in a commercial database.

As you said your test system has way too many rules and I don't think they make sense. Its purely backfitted based on what I am seeing and there is no theme or structure flowing through the system rules.
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  #18  
Old 27th September 2017, 08:44 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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A simple rule based system with a theme:

Target Favourites in form starting from a poor barrier.

1. Favourite in the race
2. Barrier >= 5
3. Must be a last start winner
4. Should be top rater (usually 100) on tatts

Pretty simple rules. Makes a profit (< 5%) with a good strike rate (42%).

Now most of those rules will be in commercial databases. Even the tatts rating is in some. But add in one other free ratings method which is not as well known and therefore not in any commercial databases and it improves to a very good profit (> 10%) with a 56% strike rate.

Commercial databases will get you so far. Having your own set of data which is different to everyone else will help you find that extra bit of gold.
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  #19  
Old 27th September 2017, 10:11 PM
Snert Snert is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
As you said your test system has way too many rules and I don't think they make sense. Its purely backfitted based on what I am seeing and there is no theme or structure flowing through the system rules.


Well said, "no theme or structure". Spot on.
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  #20  
Old 27th September 2017, 11:11 PM
Snert Snert is offline
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Chrome Prince's database.

The system I put up used filters that were constant within other systems, eg; when I was using a TAB number range it was always 1 to 6 or 7 to 24 and the race was a handicap. I've moved on a bit since then. The number of starts this time in with most of these systems was 2 to 4 and I had two starting price ranges, the main one being $4 to $30.

I do have a theme with my current systems.
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