Smartgambler
Pro-Punter

Go Back   OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums > Public Forums > Horse Race Betting Systems
User Name
Password
Register FAQ Search Today's Posts Mark all topics as read

To advertise on these
forums, e-mail us.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
  #21  
Old 27th September 2017, 11:18 PM
Shaun Shaun is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Western Australia
Posts: 5,149
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
A simple rule based system with a theme:

Target Favourites in form starting from a poor barrier.

1. Favourite in the race
2. Barrier >= 5
3. Must be a last start winner
4. Should be top rater (usually 100) on tatts

Pretty simple rules. Makes a profit (< 5%) with a good strike rate (42%).

Now most of those rules will be in commercial databases. Even the tatts rating is in some. But add in one other free ratings method which is not as well known and therefore not in any commercial databases and it improves to a very good profit (> 10%) with a 56% strike rate.

Commercial databases will get you so far. Having your own set of data which is different to everyone else will help you find that extra bit of gold.


People underestimate the power of being fav, i know with the rules i gave you if you changed it from fav to say a runner under $4 things start to drop away, or if you kept all the rules but changed it from last start winner to a runner beaten 1 length it drops off a bit, the only issue is the tighter the rules the less runners you have, not sure if your database gave the the average runners but i know for what i gave you it is less than 20 a month, one other thing i found interesting when i was testing was i looked at the average price of all selections and the average price of the winners and when the prices were close i had a lot more winners.
__________________
"If the corporates are treating you poorly , just go elsewhere."
"If they need you , they will soon find out."
"If you need them , you will soon find out."
--moeee
_______________________________________________
Reply With Quote
  #22  
Old 28th September 2017, 05:08 AM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 2,967
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaun
People underestimate the power of being fav, i know with the rules i gave you if you changed it from fav to say a runner under $4 things start to drop away, or if you kept all the rules but changed it from last start winner to a runner beaten 1 length it drops off a bit, the only issue is the tighter the rules the less runners you have, not sure if your database gave the the average runners but i know for what i gave you it is less than 20 a month, one other thing i found interesting when i was testing was i looked at the average price of all selections and the average price of the winners and when the prices were close i had a lot more winners.


Yep favs are always the best chance in the race. 20 a month is probably about right from memory for that system you had earlier in this thread.

The reason the results get worse is because you have gone from identifying the best horse/condition to test to testing a "near" best horse/condition. This opens up to more selections of poorer quality.
Reply With Quote
  #23  
Old 28th September 2017, 07:12 AM
Snert Snert is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 43
Default

Hi UB,

What's the win strike rate and average divvie of 100 top rater on Tatts please?
Reply With Quote
  #24  
Old 28th September 2017, 08:31 AM
Snert Snert is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 43
Default

I don't use ratings, never have. I think I understand how they're constructed but I just cannot figure out how a 100 rated horse can be double figure odds? I believe those doing the ratings would chop and change their methods to suit the times.

I just don't know enough about ratings.

I concentrate on data that has been proven over nearly two decades and has survived all the changes to racing and the way we bet. As you would appreciate, it's taken me many years to get into the position I'm in which is looking for repeating patterns.
Reply With Quote
  #25  
Old 28th September 2017, 02:02 PM
Snert Snert is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 43
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
You didn't answer but by your test system I see its a commercial database. Pretty sure I know which one.

It will get you part of the way but the only way to get a really good edge at system betting is by using information others do not collect in a commercial database.



You got me interested indeed. With all the variables in a horse race it's a wonder that favourites win 30% of the time. Class (and the elements that one horse possesses where the others don't, known either before or after the race) fitness and luck combine and we get horses winning in the order of betting market. So where are the hidden gems, the extra bit of gold?

When is the favourite fantastic value? Do we look at the stewards report? What about internationals? It appears that they come good after one preparation here. Do we bet on provincial horses that have many owners or do we stay out knowing they'll probably be under the odds. I'm generalising here of course, and taking a long term view, as I do.

I have no idea where the extra bit of gold is, and no clue where to find information that gives me an edge. What I do know is that I'm up against other punters. That's all I've got.
Reply With Quote
  #26  
Old 28th September 2017, 02:03 PM
Shaun Shaun is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Western Australia
Posts: 5,149
Default

Ratings are simply a numerical opinion attached to a piece of form then calculated to create a final rating, the hardest part is creating a price that reflects the rating and is accurate.
__________________
"If the corporates are treating you poorly , just go elsewhere."
"If they need you , they will soon find out."
"If you need them , you will soon find out."
--moeee
_______________________________________________
Reply With Quote
  #27  
Old 28th September 2017, 02:09 PM
Snert Snert is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 43
Default

I'm looking at gear changes in younger horses, change their bad habits before it's too late. And stewards reports on things that didn't go too well, again for younger horses, but things that a trainer could fix rather quickly.

I don't look at horses that have charged home from the rear of the field and have gone up 200 metres this time in, nor do I look for horses down in class. The odds on offer would usually be less than their chances in the race.
Reply With Quote
  #28  
Old 28th September 2017, 02:33 PM
Snert Snert is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 43
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaun
Ratings are simply a numerical opinion attached to a piece of form then calculated to create a final rating, the hardest part is creating a price that reflects the rating and is accurate.


Could a cynic look at Ratings and see 20 or 30 filters?, like LSW, won in wet, etc, etc
Reply With Quote
  #29  
Old 28th September 2017, 06:07 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 2,967
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Snert
Hi UB,

What's the win strike rate and average divvie of 100 top rater on Tatts please?


Top 100 raters regardless of price / regardless of country / regardless of harness or gallops :

Over 24318 races it had a strike rate of 27.12%. It lost on betfair SP 4.3% once you took into account a 5% commission.

Quote:
I think I understand how they're constructed but I just cannot figure out how a 100 rated horse can be double figure odds? I believe those doing the ratings would chop and change their methods to suit the times.
I just don't know enough about ratings.


Ratings are just a way to compare horses to each other. Most ratings method are based on a mathematical algorithm. Some are based on time, some are based on form, some are based on the stars. Its just another factor in trying to compare one horse to another horse in the same race.

Ratings can easily be at double figure odds and rated 100 as the ratings have an opposing view to the public. Generally in these cases the public is right and the ratings method is wrong on that particular race.


Quote:
I concentrate on data that has been proven over nearly two decades and has survived all the changes to racing and the way we bet. As you would appreciate, it's taken me many years to get into the position I'm in which is looking for repeating patterns.


This is a very basic way at looking at system betting. Your not assessing the race your assessing a horse only. Ratings bring in some analysis around a race and its suitability. Lets say you have a last start winner method and it finds a selection in a race where its the only last start winner. You think its a great selection. The problem is the last start winner won a race in some picnic meeting and the rest of the field just lost in a group 1 to Winx. Is that last start winner really a good bet ? of course not in the above extreme example. Focusing on a selection without taking into account the other horses in a race is leaving out 90% of the information that you need to win.

Quote:
So where are the hidden gems, the extra bit of gold?


Everywhere the public is not looking. Here is something most databases do not have. You can use an odds comparison site to collect the odds 1 hour to race start time, 30 mins to start time, 15 mins to start time, 10 mins to start time, 8 mins to start time, etc. Each bookies odds will move in some direction. You can record the movements on bookies and work out if drifters or firmers perform better. You can compare that to betfair/totes and see if they mirror or if one bookie goes in a different direction to the crowd. You can have a weihted price based on the 10+ bookies prices. You can have a weighted movement of the prices, you can use the price movements as confirmations or filters, etc.

Thats just one site with one set of numbers. Do this over lots of sites and collect speed figures, neurals, don scott ratings, other free ratings, tips from certain sites, forum comments, etc. The amount of information out there is unlimited and might be valuable or might be useless. You don't know till its collected, analysed and then put against a real test.

Quote:
What I do know is that I'm up against other punters. That's all I've got.


Which means you need an edge over them and if 80% of punters are using the same information (form, last start winner, pre post odds) then your sitting just ahead of a small percentage of punters who are just gamblers. But you are no better informed then the average punter and your only edge can be that you are more clever at identifying patterns and trends. This is a hard edge to hold and as other punters use the same data eventually they will find your patterns and erode the odds. It happens all the time and is why most system bettors can not exist long term as they need constantly adjusted systems or start to lose and eventually give up.

If your data is not being analysed by most punters the edges stay around for longer and do not have their odds eroded.


Quote:
I'm looking at gear changes in younger horses, change their bad habits before it's too late. And stewards reports on things that didn't go too well, again for younger horses, but things that a trainer could fix rather quickly.

I don't look at horses that have charged home from the rear of the field and have gone up 200 metres this time in, nor do I look for horses down in class. The odds on offer would usually be less than their chances in the race.


Your talking horses not races. Analysing a race is more important then analysing a horse. If you can work this out you are going to do really well.
send me an email and I'll show you how it changed my system betting. My email is betfinder@exemail.com.au . I don't like to post certain things on public forums.


Quote:
Could a cynic look at Ratings and see 20 or 30 filters?, like LSW, won in wet, etc, etc


It would be the wrong way to look at ratings and a misunderstanding of a rating vs a filter.
Reply With Quote
  #30  
Old 28th September 2017, 08:13 PM
Shaun Shaun is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Western Australia
Posts: 5,149
Default

For me ratings are a way i can assess each runners chance without bias towards another runner, i have already taken in to account all the factors i consider important to me and given it a value, any one can develope ratings and just back the top 3 but very few if any ratings top 3 are profitable unless you target specific races and only back the value runners, but how to know the value runners, this is where an accurate pricing model to suit your ratings is used, what i am saying is if you had the same horse set to run in 2 different races your pricing should reflect this.
__________________
"If the corporates are treating you poorly , just go elsewhere."
"If they need you , they will soon find out."
"If you need them , you will soon find out."
--moeee
_______________________________________________
Reply With Quote
Reply


Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On
Forum Jump



All times are GMT +10. The time now is 05:35 AM.


Powered by: vBulletin Version 3.0.3
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
2008 OZmium Pty. Ltd. All rights reserved . ACN 091184655