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  #21  
Old 1st April 2018, 01:23 AM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
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So why not reverse your systems for USA and IRE?
Yes, here in Aus and Gb, they are well aware of their broadcasting schedules, so have to start at pretty much start time. In the US, there is no racing radio channel as such, it's mostly ESPN etc. Punters bet either at the track or in the off track betting shops. There is no reason to stick to the schedule as the live feed shows them being saddled up at start time, haven't even paraded, no jockeys to be seen, then it takes what seems like ages for every horse to be led to the post by a clerk of the course.

Which reminds me of a brilliant video....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OiUjb2HRxEY

Enjoy
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http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 30/09/2018
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
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  #22  
Old 1st April 2018, 08:16 AM
demodocus demodocus is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chrome Prince
So why not reverse your systems for USA and IRE?


Nah. I've already dumped USA. I hate getting beaten about the head with a stick (too much like being married) .... there's more to USA racing than I can divine, but I will plod on with IRE. Please God this National Hunt season finishes soon :-)
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  #23  
Old 2nd April 2018, 07:02 AM
demodocus demodocus is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
CP,

In regard to the US erratic start times. Its absolutely nuts. Why do they even bother putting a start time Still there is money to be made.


Today at USA Sunland ..... start time 0733 .... actually ran ... 0750
But you need to look at the HUGE difference in the pools between these times. There again .... I go back to my proposition that you NEED weight of money. A $50k pool on a USA race can easily lead to a distorted set of prices if a big bet drops late.
Meanwhile, back at the ranch, it's time for Mr Jack to have even more delights b4 my daily sleep..
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  #24  
Old 2nd April 2018, 08:31 AM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by evajb001
It takes the starting price of the horse in that race and adjusts for field size and class of race, for example:

Horse 1 last start raced in a 8 horse field, starting price was $5, race had $30,000 prizemoney.

Today's race is a 10 horse field with $50,000 prizemoney. So that $5 starting price would need to be adjusted upwards because the horse is now in a higher class race with a higher level of runners.


Just seen this Josh, somewhere in the archives I actually mentioned this many years ago. I only took into account the number of runners. A $1.50 favourite in a field of four is a LOT different to a $1.50 favourite in a field of 14. Of course class comes into it and it seems you've done your homework.
I did have quite a bit of success with getting an accurate price, but dropped it purely because of the work involved. Best of luck with it, you're on the right track (forgive the pun).
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RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 304,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 30/09/2018
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
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  #25  
Old 13th April 2018, 05:30 AM
demodocus demodocus is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chrome Prince
I only took into account the number of runners. A $1.50 favourite in a field of four is a LOT different to a $1.50 favourite in a field of 14.


Sat Metro NON Mdns.

TAB SP <=$1.50.................>$1.50...<=$1.99

Field 8....WSR 73.6%...............51.9%
.......9....WSR 66.7%................47.8%
.....10.....WSR 69.7%...............49.3%
.....11.....WSR 66.7%...............46.0%
.....12.....WSR 70.0%...............50.4%
.....13.....WSR 65.1%...............50.0%
.....14.....WSR 71.2%...............56.8%

BTW ..... still pottering in the UK/IRE o'nite markets and doubled my bank in a month. There is a VERY good correlation between SP and success in these markets, as long as one stays away from rubbish races and the good ol' USA.
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  #26  
Old 13th April 2018, 12:28 PM
Lord Greystoke Lord Greystoke is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by demodocus
Sat Metro NON Mdns.

TAB SP <=$1.50.................>$1.50...<=$1.99

Field 8....WSR 73.6%...............51.9%
.......9....WSR 66.7%................47.8%
.....10.....WSR 69.7%...............49.3%
.....11.....WSR 66.7%...............46.0%
.....12.....WSR 70.0%...............50.4%
.....13.....WSR 65.1%...............50.0%
.....14.....WSR 71.2%...............56.8%

BTW ..... still pottering in the UK/IRE o'nite markets and doubled my bank in a month. There is a VERY good correlation between SP and success in these markets, as long as one stays away from rubbish races and the good ol' USA.


Betfair on these Demodocus? Cheers LG
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  #27  
Old 14th April 2018, 06:46 AM
demodocus demodocus is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lord Greystoke
Betfair on these Demodocus? Cheers LG


Sorry LG, not got.

I LAY at the other end of the scale and, for example, I laid a horse at Kempton this morning at $30 10 mins b4 the off ...... and it's traded price at the off was $65. Got to be awake to catch the prices on Betfair but it's not worth logging them or looking for BSP prices 'cause they bear little resemblance to the bulk of traded prices. It's the difference between a "trading market" and a Tote.
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  #28  
Old 26th April 2018, 09:36 AM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by demodocus
Sorry LG, not got.

I LAY at the other end of the scale and, for example, I laid a horse at Kempton this morning at $30 10 mins b4 the off ...... and it's traded price at the off was $65. Got to be awake to catch the prices on Betfair but it's not worth logging them or looking for BSP prices 'cause they bear little resemblance to the bulk of traded prices. It's the difference between a "trading market" and a Tote.


Deomodocus,

Completely agree that betfair has many prices but you need to know the prices which is why you should be recording the price movements from 10 mins out through to the BFSP. You probably only need to record each minute to get somewhat of an idea on the traded price movements. Its good having all of the data to do the right analysis. Of course make sure you are betting enough else face the betfair wrath of collecting data without enough being bet.
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  #29  
Old 28th April 2018, 05:56 AM
demodocus demodocus is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
Deomodocus,

You probably only need to record each minute to get somewhat of an idea on the traded price movements. Its good having all of the data to do the right analysis.


I keep watching the wee graph on the LHS of HorseName and the Prices Traded chart attached to it. Sudden large falls in the price in the last few mins usually attract a "Cashout" signal to me and I take a small smacked botty rather than face a potential $600-$700 loss ..... BUT ...... I DO get caught every now and then.
So far .... Day 39 to double bank, so original bank withdrawn and now playing with OPM, Day 56 to triple original bank and pottering along quietly.
This overnight stuff is tiring, but it pays well :-)
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  #30  
Old 28th April 2018, 06:18 AM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by demodocus
I keep watching the wee graph on the LHS of HorseName and the Prices Traded chart attached to it. Sudden large falls in the price in the last few mins usually attract a "Cashout" signal to me and I take a small smacked botty rather than face a potential $600-$700 loss ..... BUT ...... I DO get caught every now and then.
So far .... Day 39 to double bank, so original bank withdrawn and now playing with OPM, Day 56 to triple original bank and pottering along quietly.
This overnight stuff is tiring, but it pays well :-)


Doubling and tripling a bank in that time frame must mean you are working on an aggressive staking plan or percentage.
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