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  #11  
Old 25th March 2018, 09:35 AM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaun
Where do you go for the fixed odds?


I just use tatts as its easy to go through quickly
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  #12  
Old 25th March 2018, 11:06 AM
Lord Greystoke Lord Greystoke is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
Hobart R4: BANCA BOY $1.65
Rated 100. Thre close contentders at 95,95,96.
Don Soctt rating is fav at $1.95
Clear top rating by 2.5. But not best of last 3 or career. Concerning.
Prizemoney shows similar class but form is just ok.
Career, 12 Month, course not great. Distance record ok.
Jockey and Barrier are good.

Decision : Has a good chance at winning but too many reasons to not consider.


Ratings for last 3 and career are within 1kg of top rated. Is this significant or are you always looking for 'top of the pops' for these indicators when it comes to odds on prospects UB?

cheers LG

PS Just noticed it's a LSBF (odds on) - would you consider for the place?
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Last edited by Lord Greystoke : 25th March 2018 at 11:12 AM.
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  #13  
Old 25th March 2018, 11:22 AM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lord Greystoke
Ratings for last 3 and career are within 1kg of top rated. Is this significant or are you always looking for 'top of the pops' for these indicators when it comes to odds on prospects UB?

cheers LG

PS Just noticed it's a LSBF (odds on) - would you consider for the place?


Generally looking for it to be top. Its odds on so should't it deserve the best rating ? If it wasn't on odds on then you can forgive a few things.
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  #14  
Old 25th March 2018, 12:50 PM
woof43 woof43 is offline
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Default Something from the past

Something i posted nearly a decade ago here, lol

For wagering analysis catergorising Favs , gaps will become your best friend,
and nearly a decade on there is a lot of catching up to be done, if this is now your starting point.


"So, to start moving down that path, you might want to think of a logical approach, in general. My first suggestion would be a series of goals, each one getting a little harder, and a little more useful.

First, you might consider predicting nothing more than which dog in each race will be the crowd favorite. Period. Get really good at this, because it's a MAJOR key to your success. You need to predict who the CROWD will choose as a favorite, because eventually you will find that the crowd bases their betting on the strength of this particular dog. If you don't know which one is going to be the crowd favorite, you'll never be able to develop ANY kind of odds model.

After you get REALLY good at picking the crowd favorite, you then go to the next level, which is predicting which dog the crowd will identify as the WORST in the field. Eventually this will be important as well, because you'll need to understand how punters ELIMINATE dogs, and what that does to betting habits.

After you get really good at identifying (simultaneously) the crowd's #1 pick and #8 pick, then you'll want to go for the whole shebang... ranking all eight dogs in the same order as the crowd ranks them. This is nothing except a ranking. At this point, you just want them in order, and you don't care about the actual odds.

After you get really good at the rankings, ONLY THEN will you start to look at actually predicting odds. At this point, start the process over. Start predicting the odds on JUST THE CROWD FAVORITE. Then go to the crowd's last pick.

Now you need to catorgise the type of race as determined by the punters,
"what will the crowd do with this thing." And I mean quite specifically.
This is a very important part for your future studies, you need to make sure you only ever catergorise races only based on what the punters can see in front of them(formguides).....
You have to look at wagering from a psychological viewpoint. People can't look at very many things simultaneously. The human brain isn't wired like that. People tend to scan over a race, and make some very broad judgments about what KIND of race they are looking at. Then from that bias, they go on to make decisions about what further information they will seek out. The broad view dictates both the kind of information they will look for, and how they will interpret what they see or find. It's like people naturally determine what's important, and that then colours their view of how to handicap and then how to bet on the race.
It's VERY important to be able to size up a race and determine what the crowd will immediately see about the race. And what particular factor is likely to be overplayed
What you are looking for are obvious factors that will get too much play, Remember, too, that a strong attention grabber may NOT make the dog in question into a crowd favorite. That obvious early speed runner in a good box may not run the distance, so it's not assured to be the favorite. But this kind of dog will siphon money AWAY from the dog who may STILL be the favorite, and a favorite that you AGREE with. In that case, you will be given an overlay on a favorite that is also your top-ranked pick. And that overlay will be generated because of excess play on another slightly weaker contender."
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  #15  
Old 25th March 2018, 01:04 PM
Lord Greystoke Lord Greystoke is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by woof43
Something i posted nearly a decade ago here, lol

For wagering analysis catergorising Favs , gaps will become your best friend,
and nearly a decade on there is a lot of catching up to be done, if this is now your starting point.


"So, to start moving down that path, you might want to think of a logical approach, in general. My first suggestion would be a series of goals, each one getting a little harder, and a little more useful."


Indeed .. time is fleeting woof43. From best efforts memory, when I first read your post back then, it came across as a bit of a convaluted mouthful although this would largely be down to my own ignorance at the time. With the benefit of hindsight, I am a bit more acquainted with the concept of 'gaps' and their significance. Particularly when it comes to the 'wizzard of odds'. Second para above is where I am now albeit still at the beginning .. hopefully the end of the beginning!

Cheers LG
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  #16  
Old 25th March 2018, 01:12 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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woof43,

Great post. It all does come down to practice, practice and more practice. Otherwise you can not identify that top pick or that bottom pick (and then you have no idea of those in between).
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  #17  
Old 25th March 2018, 01:15 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Just putting these here so they are easy to digest later.


Hobart R1: THOSE RED COLOURS $1.70 - Decision: Likely to Win. Concerning factors in there so would only bet for a place.

Hobart R4: BANCA BOY $1.65 - Decision : Has a good chance at winning but too many reasons to not consider.

Coffs Harbour R3: CENTRAL WITNESS $1.90 - Decision : Steer clear of this selection.

Port Lincoln R1: FLOP $1.90 - Decision : Risky with the first starters. I can't see the horse not placing though so a place bet is worthwhile.
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  #18  
Old 25th March 2018, 02:26 PM
partypooper partypooper is offline
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[Hobart R1: THOSE RED COLOURS $1.70 - Decision: Likely to Win. Concerning factors in there so would only bet for a place.]


Coffs Harbour R3: CENTRAL WITNESS $1.90 - Decision : Steer clear of this selection.

Always the way ey?

Last edited by partypooper : 25th March 2018 at 02:30 PM.
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  #19  
Old 25th March 2018, 03:27 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by partypooper
[Hobart R1: THOSE RED COLOURS $1.70 - Decision: Likely to Win. Concerning factors in there so would only bet for a place.]


Coffs Harbour R3: CENTRAL WITNESS $1.90 - Decision : Steer clear of this selection.

Always the way ey?


Yep it always is ...
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  #20  
Old 25th March 2018, 04:03 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Saying that 1 day doesn't give much indication of a method either. Takes time and dedication to get things right and over time we should be in front if we are making good decisions.
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