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  #11  
Old 18th May 2018, 08:12 AM
demodocus demodocus is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
I do love to handicap.

Mornin' UB
Let me tell you a tale.
Yesterday as I was about to take my old friend for yet another walk I noticed something on the screen. Evangaline Downs R6 (1600m) had several short priced horses and one at $30.10 ..... Run Bayou Bird ...... an odds glance and a pool assessment said "go-fer-it" so I did and LAID wager $30. Liability +/- $900.
Mr Jack and I returned an hour or so later ..... and there it was on the screen, laughing at me ...... Run Bayou Bird WINNER. The foetal position was assumed and this morning at 0345 I cranked up my magic box to have a look at Newmarket only to find a much bigger balance than I'd thought.
In the rush to get Mr Jack sorted I'd BACKED Run Bayou Bird for $30 at $30.10 and it WON.
This is a game of winners and losers ..... but sometimes fate takes control :-)
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  #12  
Old 18th May 2018, 11:55 AM
Snert Snert is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by midas
We all agree that our staking method is as important as our selections.


Loss chasing methods are not for me.

My staking method is simple. I believe that if you cannot win on level staking then at best, you're inviting the sheriff in to see your mortgage title.

Start betting level stakes at whatever percentage of the bank you choose, let's say 2%. Maintain those bets at the exact same dollar amount until you hit a predetermined bank balance increase of say 20%. Adjust your bet accordingly.

Start off with $10k, you're betting $200 per bet. When the bank hits $12k you're betting $240 per bet.

The key: Never reduce the dollar level of your bet at anytime, so when you're betting $240 per bet it never drops from that dollar amount.

A saying I always live by; As you slide down the bannister of life, may the splinters point in the right direction.
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  #13  
Old 18th May 2018, 12:01 PM
Snert Snert is offline
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I accept that under certain circumstances this could in theory be classified as a loss chasing method But that's not the gist of the method.
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  #14  
Old 18th May 2018, 07:06 PM
Vortech
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What defines the percentage of the bank is used? If a place punters is hitting 85 per cent strike rate vs a long shot system would you vary?
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  #15  
Old 18th May 2018, 09:09 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Snert
The key: Never reduce the dollar level of your bet at anytime, so when you're betting $240 per bet it never drops from that dollar amount.


This is almost exactly how I was betting except for when I changed the amount. I was only changing my betting size at the beginning of each month. I rarely lost a month so I was increasing my stakes every month.

I say "was" as I have had to change the way I stake now. Its hard to get my staking size amount of money on some races. I now have a base bet and I have ways of knowing when the amount wagered can increase.

But what you said is a very safe staking strategy provided your bet size is not too high (2% is too high).
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  #16  
Old 18th May 2018, 09:11 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by demodocus
Mornin' UB
Let me tell you a tale.
Yesterday as I was about to take my old friend for yet another walk I noticed something on the screen. Evangaline Downs R6 (1600m) had several short priced horses and one at $30.10 ..... Run Bayou Bird ...... an odds glance and a pool assessment said "go-fer-it" so I did and LAID wager $30. Liability +/- $900.
Mr Jack and I returned an hour or so later ..... and there it was on the screen, laughing at me ...... Run Bayou Bird WINNER. The foetal position was assumed and this morning at 0345 I cranked up my magic box to have a look at Newmarket only to find a much bigger balance than I'd thought.
In the rush to get Mr Jack sorted I'd BACKED Run Bayou Bird for $30 at $30.10 and it WON.
This is a game of winners and losers ..... but sometimes fate takes control :-)


Well that was a happy accident. I doubt you will be that lucky too many times a year so enjoy the windfall Winning allows for grinning.
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  #17  
Old 19th May 2018, 06:57 AM
Vortech
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor

But what you said is a very safe staking strategy provided your bet size is not too high (2% is too high).


Has there been any discussions on an appropriate levels stakes % of bank if you combined varying methods?

i.e. you use 5 systems with varying strikes rates and volume of bets. Do you bet a set amount of bank or individual stakes per system?
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  #18  
Old 19th May 2018, 07:47 AM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vortech
Has there been any discussions on an appropriate levels stakes % of bank if you combined varying methods?

i.e. you use 5 systems with varying strikes rates and volume of bets. Do you bet a set amount of bank or individual stakes per system?


I think its a combination.

The way I have set it when I was building my bank was to look at the maximum drawdown I could handle. It was 10% for me but yours might be higher or lower. I then used historical analysis to determine my largest drawdown with all of the systems running using level stakes. I can't remember the exact figure but lets say it was 20 units. I then assumed that it could always get worse in the future so I doubled that to 40 units.

Now we have a 10% loss which I can handle and it can be broken down by 40 units. That is a bet size of 0.25% of your bank.

I then looked at the maximum bet size if systems picked the same selection. Lets assume it was 20 systems. I also do not want to lose more then 1/3 of the maximum draw down on any one selection. So that would be 3.33%. Divide this by the 20 systems and you get a bet size of 0.1665% .

From here I would just be conservative and round it to 0.15% for easier calculations. I would then use the lower of the two figures which in this case was 0.15%. It would change depending on what systems I was running as sometimes it would be based on the draw down and sometimes it would be a based on the system count. But I would alwas take the lower figure.

I am extremely risk adverse though. My bank roll growth is llarge though because I can generate massive turnover and I don't want anything to go wrong. I am happy to give up a bit of growth in order for bankroll preservation.

Its worked for me.
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  #19  
Old 19th May 2018, 10:16 AM
Vortech
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Some nice information there UB thankyou.
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