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  #1  
Old 26th April 2018, 06:33 PM
Snert Snert is offline
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Default I reckon this is a great read

David Walsh's wisdom beats the odds / afr.com
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  #2  
Old 28th April 2018, 11:12 AM
Lord Greystoke Lord Greystoke is offline
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Indeed.
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  #3  
Old 29th April 2018, 09:25 AM
Mark Mark is offline
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Snert, I remember reading this article at the time it was printed, and of course it's still relevant today.
Having re-read your post about taking a break, can I ask how you would rate your own mathematical ability?
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  #4  
Old 29th April 2018, 10:02 AM
Snert Snert is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mark
Having re-read your post about taking a break, can I ask how you would rate your own mathematical ability?


Hi Mark, if you're referring to making a book, then I've got no hope of doing that. I don't try to rate races. I select a horse that's in with a chance which includes at least one piece of the puzzle that would turn most punters off with the hope that the odds are way above it's actual chances of winning.

The only maths I take notice of is if my systems show a POT over a long period of time. It's this figure that convinces me that I'm getting a far better price than the true odds.

My post about taking a break obviously didn't clearly articulate what I do after reading the responses.

That's about it really.

I certainly invite your criticism as it will help not only myself but others too.
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  #5  
Old 29th April 2018, 01:22 PM
Mark Mark is offline
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No criticism. You incorrectly assume it's about making books, which can be taught. Each to their own, however by your own admission you're not winning regularly, so this..........

I don't try to rate races. I select a horse that's in with a chance which includes at least one piece of the puzzle that would turn most punters off with the hope that the odds are way above it's actual chances of winning.

The only maths I take notice of is if my systems show a POT over a long period of time. It's this figure that convinces me that I'm getting a far better price than the true odds.

.......is obviously not working.
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  #6  
Old 29th April 2018, 06:42 PM
Snert Snert is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mark
No criticism. You incorrectly assume it's about making books, which can be taught. Each to their own, however by your own admission you're not winning regularly, so this..........

I don't try to rate races. I select a horse that's in with a chance which includes at least one piece of the puzzle that would turn most punters off with the hope that the odds are way above it's actual chances of winning.

The only maths I take notice of is if my systems show a POT over a long period of time. It's this figure that convinces me that I'm getting a far better price than the true odds.

.......is obviously not working.


It is almost impossible for me to punt, so yes, you're definitely 100% correct Mark, thanks. It's not worth it at all. Hard to admit.
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  #7  
Old 5th May 2018, 03:09 PM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
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Great read of the article Snert, but he still skirts issues, the rebates played a huge part in their success, but he still won't admit it.
As far as the maths goes, he reveals little, however I do agree that any ratings method must include the crowd wisdom, BUT that would have to be just before the jump.
I don't agree that top jockeys are overlooked by the crowd, all indications are that hot jockeys are overbet.
Smoke and mirrors!
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  #8  
Old 5th May 2018, 08:53 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chrome Prince
As far as the maths goes, he reveals little, however I do agree that any ratings method must include the crowd wisdom, BUT that would have to be just before the jump.


That is how a lot of the successful syndicates work. They use the final odds as the starting point and adjust that price slightly and bet on multiple selections.
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  #9  
Old 6th May 2018, 10:28 AM
Thenewguy Thenewguy is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chrome Prince
I don't agree that top jockeys are overlooked by the crowd, all indications are that hot jockeys are overbet.


Top trainers as well. Lots of good lays laying Weir & Waller along with jockeys like Bowman.
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  #10  
Old 7th May 2018, 06:45 AM
thorns thorns is offline
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On the subject of good reads,

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/feat...******-racing-code

Figure it doesn't need its own thread.

**also, anyone have a link to the original thats not behind the paywall?
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