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  #1  
Old 24th May 2018, 10:13 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Default Learning from each other

A couple of things I noticed in the recent threads is :

1. People are looking to understand how winning punters think and work.
2. They can't do system bets and compete with the big boys.
3. They don't understand the importance of price.

I suggest we take 1 race every few days and handicap it. And I mean really give it a good go.

For this week I suggest we look at Doomben R4.

I have posted the market below (WIN + PLACE):

IT'S SOMEWHAT 3.30
DUCA VALENTINOIS 4.00
RED EXCITEMENT 5.50
NURSE KITCHEN 8.00
SPECTROSCOPE 8.50
SHEISWHATSHEIS 10.00
COLDSTONE 23.00
RUETTIGER 23.00
HONEY TOAST 26.00
SACRED MASTER 26.00
RUUD NOT TOO 28.00
EMPHASIS 41.00
FIRST CRUSH 51.00

You know the odds above. The simple questions are "Why can each horse win?" and "why can each horse lose?". After you do that work out how you are going to make a profit on the race? Will it be to lay a horse, or back one or several horses?

I'll go through tomorrow night and do the form and see what I come up with and I'll post it here for others to critique.

Handicapping is suppose to be fun. If it feels like work to go through each horse and do the above then punting using handicapping may not be for you.
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  #2  
Old 25th May 2018, 12:42 PM
partypooper partypooper is offline
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nice one UB, do you want comments other than straight out handicapping? I've already assessed the race and in fact I have taken what I consider a great price on one of them.
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  #3  
Old 25th May 2018, 01:43 PM
evajb001 evajb001 is offline
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Only had a bit of time at lunch so focused it on one horse and I don't believe sheiswhatsheis will win. Up in weight, wider barrier from last start with greater pressure on the inside for the lead so will have to either work harder early on to get the lead and retain it, or will need to sit wide. Basically I just don't think it will get it as easy as its last run and its recent form besides the win has been nothing to get excited about.
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  #4  
Old 25th May 2018, 05:59 PM
partypooper partypooper is offline
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casting a 20 second glance, I looked at Its Somewhat and remembered the "pain" so quickly went to Sheiswhatsheis and Nurse Kitchen. then took some more time , taking a line through Sheiswhatsheis who again in theory should beaty Coldstone by 2.5-3 lengths, but that win was on the soft and Coldstone has run close up in all its races, checked the "pumped" price at sportsbet and figured $42 with Craig Williams up is too good to miss, with my saver on Nurse Kitchen (or should I say James McDonald)
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  #5  
Old 25th May 2018, 06:20 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Great comments so far.

Quote:
nice one UB, do you want comments other than straight out handicapping? I've already assessed the race and in fact I have taken what I consider a great price on one of them.


I am going to provide comments on each one but if you have an angle that you think will work then feel free to share. I would suggest instead of backing one horse you should evaluate a few backups in case your horse loses and bet them accordingly to at least break even or slightly profit.

Quote:
Only had a bit of time at lunch so focused it on one horse and I don't believe sheiswhatsheis will win. Up in weight, wider barrier from last start with greater pressure on the inside for the lead so will have to either work harder early on to get the lead and retain it, or will need to sit wide. Basically I just don't think it will get it as easy as its last run and its recent form besides the win has been nothing to get excited about.


At what price is sheishatsheis a good lay? Are you 100% sure it won't win? If so then $1000 is a good lay price or where do you think you would start to think it would be good value?

Quote:
casting a 20 second glance, I looked at Its Somewhat and remembered the "pain" so quickly went to Sheiswhatsheis and Nurse Kitchen. then took some more time , taking a line through Sheiswhatsheis who again in theory should beaty Coldstone by 2.5-3 lengths, but that win was on the soft and Coldstone has run close up in all its races, checked the "pumped" price at sportsbet and figured $42 with Craig Williams up is too good to miss, with my saver on Nurse Kitchen (or should I say James McDonald)


Why only one saver ? surely there are more chances ?
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  #6  
Old 25th May 2018, 06:36 PM
evajb001 evajb001 is offline
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UB thats probably the part I'm working on and struggling with at the moment, is gauging what price constitutes value for this type of scenario. I have a reasonable level of confidence that it wont win but how do you accurately put a value on that without doing this consistently and getting a feel for it. I just feel like these kind of scenarios offer value regularly where people 1) ignore the speed map and 2) ignore that potential speed inside of the horse. It being a last start winner means its price is probably shorter then it should be as well which helps the lay. If I had to put a price on it then I'd maybe say $20 is where the value evaporates but that is really just picking a number out.
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  #7  
Old 25th May 2018, 06:42 PM
Vortech Vortech is offline
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From what I understand the true exercise here is using particular methodologies to generate a % chance on each horse winning and then generating a price.

From this price we can then assess the market price of each and consider them a bet or a lay.

For example the fav is $3.30. Pending the rated chance generated by individuals we could rate it a $2.00 chance which then we back to win or we could rate it a $5.00 chance and hence lay.

The challenge here is gathering the ideas within and determining how we rate each horse. From the little information I have gathered is your need to determine your base rating. From there you can determine the weight of variables to calculate the start rating.

Love to hear others thoughts here as a spectator.
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  #8  
Old 25th May 2018, 07:26 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by evajb001
UB thats probably the part I'm working on and struggling with at the moment, is gauging what price constitutes value for this type of scenario. I have a reasonable level of confidence that it wont win but how do you accurately put a value on that without doing this consistently and getting a feel for it. I just feel like these kind of scenarios offer value regularly where people 1) ignore the speed map and 2) ignore that potential speed inside of the horse. It being a last start winner means its price is probably shorter then it should be as well which helps the lay. If I had to put a price on it then I'd maybe say $20 is where the value evaporates but that is really just picking a number out.


Yep this is where the art form comes into handicapping and assessing it. You have looked at that one horse but how does it compare to the rest of the horses in terms of chance. There are 13 horses in this field. That gives each one a 7.6% chance. At $20 you are rating it at a 5% chance. Does that feel right to you.

Also what is the market telling you ? Its rated a $10 chance right now. That is a 10% chance. They are saying its got better then average chances of winning this race and your saying it has less than average chances. Does that feel right?

Vortech is along the right lines in you need to establish a way of weighting these horses.

I'll post my comments and thoughts soon.
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  #9  
Old 25th May 2018, 07:28 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Here is what I have said for each horse. I worked out why it can win or why it can lose the race. I'll be right on one side of the considerations for every horse.

My next step is to work out how I am going to prfoit from this race.

Feel free to agree/disagree with all my comments on each horse.


Its Somewhat :
GOOD: Reasonable strike rate, beaten other horses in this race before, Won around this distance, Favourite, Run in similar and higher class and been competitive or won. 3rd up form is very good and distance form is ok. Good Jockey. Prefers Clockwise track (which this is). Rated 100 on tatts.
BAD: Ran twice and not won at this track. Barrier gets him sitting in the middle of the pack on the rail and may run into traffic.

Red Excitement:
GOOD:Form is ok. Distance form is good. Wide barrier which doesn't suit running style, Good jockey. 2nd up Form is very good. Won around this distance and has had good form in similar class races.
BAD: Hasn't won in the last twelve months. Never raced at this track. Has lost to Duca Valentinois twice before.

Duca Valentinois:
GOOD: OK Form (including distance and last 12 months). Prefers Clockwise track (which this is), ok Jockey, Won at this distance. Competitive in similar class. Beaten a few of these horses. Second favourite.
BAD:Lost to a few of thse horses. Bad barrier for its mid-back field preference.

Spectrascope
GOOD: Distance form ok. Similar class runs and been competitive. Beaten some horses before.
BAD: Course and twelve month form is not good. 427 days since last win. Prefers Anticlockwise courses. Runs better in the wet. Lost to some horse before. Likes to stay at the back and run on. Rated poorly on tatts.

Ruttiger
GOOD:GOod jockey. Similar class it has been close to winning.Beaten some horses.
BAD:Wide barrier (may not affect running style).686 days since last win. Distance, course and twelve month form suggest this horse runs places and doesn't win. Lost to a competitior previously. Horrible clockwise record. Rated poorly on tatts.

Coldstone
GOOD: ok distance, and twelve month stats. Similar class and competitive. Beaten some horses. RUns on pace. Good barrier for running style.
BAD:Poor course record. Lost to some horses previously. Rated poorly on tatts.

Emphasis
GOOD: OK Distance and course form. Twleve month form ok. Run in similar class and been competitive. Runs well on Good Ground. Barrier is an advantage for running style.
BAD:Poor jockey stats. Been beaten by quite a few of these horses before.Rated poorly on tatts.

Sacred Master
GOOD: Good trainer and jockey stats. Form looks good as does distance form. Ran similar class and been competitive.
BAD:No Course runs or runs in last twelve months except for barrier trials. Been 617 days since last win (only 3 runs though). First up form is not good. Looks to like longer distances. Wide barrier. Rated poorly on tatts.

First Crush
GOOD: Good distance and course record. ok twelve month record. Good overall form. Runs well up front and barrier suits. Been sompetitive in similar class.
BAD: Seems to prefer wetter ground. Been beaten by quite a few of thse horses recently.Rated poorly on tatts.

Honey Toast
GOOD: Good trainer stats. Good trainer/jockey stats. Good ovrall form. Been competitive in similar class. Recent form ok.
BAD:Been 770 days since last win and 7 races. Distance course nd twelve month point to deteriation in form. Bad barrier.Rated poorly on tatts.

sheiswhatsheis
GOOD: Very good jokey and trainer stats. Very good distance, course, recent and twelve month form. Jockey won onboard before. Beaten lots of these horses before. Performed ok in similar class.
BAD:Seems to prefer wetter ground. Barrier a touch wide for a horse that likes to lead. Been beaten a few times by horses in the race.Rated poorly on tatts.

Nurse Kitchen
GOOD:Good jockeya nd trainer stats. Distance stats are ok. Lightly raced. Perfomed ok in similar class.
BAD: Not raced at course before. Prefers Anti clockwise. Terrible barrier. Been 5 races since last win and over 500 days.Rated poorly on tatts.

Ruud Not too
GOOD: Good jockey stats. Good distance stats. Good GOOD ground stats. Preferes CLockwise.
BAD:Rated poorly on tatts. Poor course stats. Poor twleve month form.
Recent form not so good and similar class form has been poor.
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  #10  
Old 25th May 2018, 08:32 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Based on my comments and reviewing the horses I came up with the following table. I rated each horse based on an low, average, good, very good chance of winning. I have ranked it by odds:

Its Somewhat : VERY GOOD ($3.30)
Duca Valentinois: VERY GOOD ($4.00)
Red Excitement: GOOD ($5.50)
Nurse Kitchen AVERAGE ($8.00)
Spectrascope AVERAGE ($8.50)
sheiswhatsheis GOOD ($10.00)
Ruttiger LOW ($23.00)
Coldstone AVERAGE ($23.00)
Sacred Master AVERAGE ($26.00)
Honey Toast LOW ($26.00)
Ruud Not too AVERAGE ($28.00)
Emphasis AVERAGE ($41.00)
First Crush AVERAGE ($51.00)


A couple of horses stick out. Ruttiger and Honey Toast are my LOW ratings. Based on the assessment of the market I will look at laying HONEY TOAST. depending on the price. I would like a price below $100 but willing to go up to $150.

If I was to bet on this race I would say you need to dutch the top 6 horses depending on the odds. You would want to get a 30% profit for this field and I don't think that will be possible.

Its Somewhat : VERY GOOD ($3.30)
Duca Valentinois: VERY GOOD ($4.00)
Red Excitement: GOOD ($5.50)
Nurse Kitchen AVERAGE ($8.00)
Spectrascope AVERAGE ($8.50)
sheiswhatsheis GOOD ($10.00)
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