Smartgambler
Pro-Punter

Go Back   OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums > Public Forums > Horse Racing
User Name
Password
Register FAQ Search Today's Posts Mark all topics as read

To advertise on these
forums, e-mail us.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
  #11  
Old 13th August 2018, 11:29 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 963
Default

Cross Counter won the Group 3 Goodwood Gordon Stakes the weekend before last. Looks like an interesting prospect and after the race trainer Charlie Appleby indicated that the Melbourne Cup could be his next run:

"The plan was always to use the race as a platform for a trip to Australia, and that should get him straight into the Melbourne Cup. If it doesn't then he'll still go down there and hopefully get into the race via one of the trials," Appleby told the Racing Post.

There were only 4 horses in the field but it wasn't a sit and sprint, being run in track record time. Vision of the race is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-sn9eF5As74

Jockey William Buick: "We didn't go an end-to-end gallop but it was an even gallop and it wasn't a falsely-run race by any means. He managed to quicken off the front again, which is always a very good sign.

"It was a track record and was a quality performance. He beat a top-quality stayer in Dee Ex Bee in second and it was great that he could make the step-up to this grade."

He added: "Cross Counter quickened off the front. He gave me a nice feel and it was nice to see him win like that today. He was relentless to the line and I thought that it was a very good performance.

"Cross Counter is only going to keep on progressing and he'll make a lovely horse next season. It's lovely for a horse like him to keep on progressing through the ranks."

6 starts for 4 wins. His two losses were handicaps where he gave away 4kg and 6.5kg to the winner. Has won (by 8L) with 61kg over a 1900m set weight race. Same age as Rekindling was last year. Hasn't run over 2400m - and isn't likely to ahead of the Cup, if he can get away with it. Will do his best to dodge the handicapper.
Reply With Quote
  #12  
Old 14th August 2018, 12:30 AM
evajb001 evajb001 is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 1,286
Default

Ill try find the spreadsheet I had for last year. I won a significant amount on Rekindling last year due to the similar thread and also was extremely close to winning some of the exotics I put on. Most of the rules I follow are hard to put together too far out from the cup but I think if we combine our thinking like last year we should be able to hit the nail on the head again.

I'll post back along the way when i have more to contribute. I'm hoping as we get closer you'll do some similar writeups to last year walkermac as they were especially helpful.
Reply With Quote
  #13  
Old 21st August 2018, 12:00 AM
walkermac walkermac is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 963
Default

Some action over the weekend:

https://youtu.be/SB5_Y3G2kJE
Marmelo was a 2.5L 2nd in this year's Prix de Kergorlay. The trainer thought that the track was a little too firm. He seemed to imply that he only ran the horse 'cause he'd travelled for the race. Since resuming in May from last year's Cup, Marmela was a narrow 2nd in a G2 over 3000m to Varizabad, then had two victories over 2800m (1 Listed and 1 G2) ahead of the Kergorlay race.

Australian Bloodstock were behind the recent purchase of Torcedor, who will be prepared for the Cup by Andreas Wohler. Apparently he will be the third highest timeform-rated horse to ever come to Australia. He's finished within a length of Stradivarius in his last two races and beat Order of St George by 3 lengths.

Godolphin's Hamada has won 5 in a row. The latest of which, the Geoffrey Freer Stakes, was his first Group race (a G3). His only two losses were the first two runs of his career - and the only ones shorter than 2000m.

A bunch of Cup prospects and past runners were resuming at Caulfield in the 1400m P.B. Lawrence Stakes: Hartnell (2nd), Kings Will Dream (4th), Humidor (8th), Big Duke (12th), Harlem (13th), Boom Time (14th) and Red Cardinal (last). It was reported that both Red Cardinal and Big Duke had bone chips removed after last Spring and would need a few runs to regain fitness.
Reply With Quote
  #14  
Old 21st August 2018, 04:34 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 963
Default

Cross Counter is in a 2385m Group 2 race at York tomorrow (Race 3, 12:01am Thursday, AEST). Cross Counter is the narrow favourite over Kew Gardens with most bookmakers.
Reply With Quote
  #15  
Old 21st August 2018, 10:21 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 3,669
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by walkermac
S

Godolphin's Hamada has won 5 in a row. The latest of which, the Geoffrey Freer Stakes, was his first Group race (a G3). His only two losses were the first two runs of his career - and the only ones shorter than 2000m.



Hamada is sitting at $23 on betfair at the moment. Those odds look enticing as I think they will be shorter on cup day.
Reply With Quote
  #16  
Old 23rd August 2018, 12:33 AM
walkermac walkermac is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 963
Default

Cross Counter ($21 in Cup futures) started favourite but came 2nd to fellow Godophin runner Old Persian ($61). Commentators thought he would run on to victory from 2 furlongs out, but didn't show the same finishing pace as in earlier efforts. They were both ahead of Kew Gardens in 3rd ($41) and The Pentagon ($101)


The Lonsdale Cup (Friday 11:25pm AEST) has some prospects in it. A Group 2 held over 3300m, in the field are:
Stradivarius ($18 in Melbourne Cup futures)
Red Verdon ($41)
Count Octave ($61)
Idaho ($61)
Max Dynamite ($81)
St Michel ($101)
Desert Skyline ($201)

The Irish St Leger Trial over 2800m (Saturday 7:25pm) has a couple more:
Thomas Hobson ($61)
Max Dynamite ($81; dual nomination)
Wicklow Brave ($151)

The Grand Prix de Deauville (Sunday 9:35pm) has Tiberian ($61).
Reply With Quote
  #17  
Old 25th August 2018, 09:41 AM
walkermac walkermac is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 963
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by walkermac
The Lonsdale Cup (Friday 11:25pm AEST) has some prospects in it. A Group 2 held over 3300m, in the field are:
Stradivarius ($18 in Melbourne Cup futures)
Red Verdon ($41)
Count Octave ($61)
Idaho ($61)
Max Dynamite ($81)
St Michel ($101)
Desert Skyline ($201)
Stradivarius wins by 1.5L, Count Octave 2nd, Idaho 3rd and several lengths further back.

Replay: https://www.racinguk.com/videos/watch/ondemand/19100
Reply With Quote
  #18  
Old 27th August 2018, 09:17 AM
walkermac walkermac is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 963
Default

Stradivarius ($21) won't be coming to Melbourne, per his owner: "I've got no inclination to take him to Australia, nor travel him – you put some wear and tear on the wheels,” Nielsen said, "He's only young for a stayer and if he stays sound he can go round the clock next year, and the year after. The odds are a younger horse is going to have to come up from somewhere to beat him if he stays sound and his mind is still good." Placegetters Count Octave ($np) and Idaho ($51) both look like the may make the trip though.


Defending champ Tiberian ($51) finished well back in The Grand Prix de Deauville. Hopefully his form indicates to his connections that it's not worth bringing him over: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B7oWeqCwsJg


Muntahaa ($np) won the Ebor Handicap this past weekend strongly: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a_nWp9itEso. The two previous winners have done well in the Cup: Heartbreak City (2nd) and Nakeeta (5th). Per his camp: "If (Melbourne Cup) entries haven't closed yet, we'll put him in. Whether he'd take to it mentally with the hustle and bustle, I don't know."

Reigning champ Nakeeta ($51) didn't do so well this year, finishing back in 7th. Stratum was the favourite and finished 12th but was held up for a run for much of the straight. He had been talked about as a Melbourne Cup prospect but would now have to qualify through local group races.


Bonneval ($41) was recently named NZ Horse of the Year, for the second year running. She was entered in the Melbourne Cup last Spring but withdrew after injury to a suspensory ligament. Apparently Murray Baker is waiting for the right track conditions to trial her.

Stablemate Jon Snow ($101) also didn't make it to the Melbourne Cup last year but that will be the aim again this time around. He recently trialled successfully and is expected to race this weekend in either Hastings or Melbourne, depending on track conditions - firm tracks are a no-no.

Stablemate Zacada ($101), runner-up to Who Shot Thebarman in the Sydney Cup earlier this year, has also been mentioned as having a Melbourne Cup target.



Entries close this Thursday per the race conditions (https://cdn.racing.com/-/media/vrc/...conditions-2018) but it's being reported elsewhere that first nominations for The Cup close at midday tomorrow and it's expected a list will be available soon after. Either way there'll be some more concrete news this week.
Reply With Quote
  #19  
Old 30th August 2018, 11:07 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 963
Default

Melbourne Cup nominations have been released. Now enjoy this huge amount of blankspace that seems to be automagically added when you use a table tag.





















































































































































































ABDON (GB) G6Chris Waller
ACE HIGH H4David Payne
ADMIRE ROBSON (JPN) H5Darren Weir
AL HARAM (FR) G6David & B Hayes & T Dabernig
AMBITIOUS (JPN) H7Anthony Freedman
ANOTHER DOLLAR (NZ) M4Chris Waller
AUVRAY (FR) G8Richard Freedman
AVILIUS (GB) G5James Cummings
AZURO (FR) G5Darren Weir
BEDFORD (NZ) G5Anthony Freedman
BELGRAVIA (IRE) H5Liam Howley
BEST OF DAYS (GB) H5James Cummings
BEST SOLUTION (IRE) H5Saeed Bin Suroor
BIG DUKE (IRE) G7Darren Weir
BONNEVAL (NZ) M5Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman
BRIMHAM ROCKS (GB) G5Chris Waller
CALIBRATION (IRE) H5Darren Weir
CASTERTON (IRE) H5Andre Fabre
CHELKAR (FR) G6William Mullins
CHEQUERED FLAG (NZ) G7Darren Weir
CHESTNUT COAT (JPN) H5Yo********o Yahagi
CLIFFS OF MOHER (IRE) H5Aidan O'Brien
COMIN’ THROUGH G5Chris Waller
CORDERO G5Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes
COUNT OCTAVE (GB) H5Andrew Balding
CROSS COUNTER (GB) G4Charlie Appleby
CULLINGWORTH (IRE) G5Darren Weir
DAL HARRAILD (GB) G6Ciaron Maher & David Eustace
DANDY GENT G7Terry & Karina O'Sullivan
DANON ROMAN (JPN) H5Anthony Freedman
D’ARGENTO H4Chris Waller
DEAUVILLE (IRE) H6Aidan O'Brien
DESERT SKYLINE (IRE) G5David Elsworth
DIVINE UNICORN (GB) G5Matthew Dunn
DOHA DREAM (FR) H6Andre Fabre
DOMED M5John P Thompson
DOUGLAS MACARTHUR (IRE) G5Liam Howley
DURETTO (GB) G7Andrew Balding
EGG TART M5Chris Waller
EMOTIONLESS (IRE) H6Charlie Appleby
ETAH JAMES (NZ) M6Matt Cumani
EXEMPLAR (IRE) H5Liam Howley
FINCHE (GB) H5Andre Fabre
FLAG OF HONOUR (IRE) H4Aidan O'Brien
GALLIC CHIEFTAIN (FR) H6Darren Weir
GAME STARTER (IRE) H5Saeed Bin Suroor
GIUSEPPE GARIBALDI (IRE) H4Aidan O'Brien
GOLDEN AUTHORITY (NZ) G5Matt Cumani
GRUNT (NZ) H4Mick Price
GUARDINI (FR) G8Darren Weir
HAMADA (GB) G5Charlie Appleby
HANS HOLBEIN (GB) G7Liam Howley
HAPPY MOMENT (JPN) H9Anthony Freedman
HARIPOUR (IRE) H5Darren Weir
HARLEM (GB) G7David & B Hayes & T Dabernig
HARRISON (GB) G6Liam Howley
HE EKSCELS (NZ) G5Richard Laming
HERE AND NOW (GB) G5Ralph Beckett
HIGH BRIDGE (GB) G8Chris Waller
HIGHLAD G5Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman
HIYAAM (NZ) M4Mick Price
HOMESMAN (USA) G5Liam Howley
HUMIDOR (NZ) G6Darren Weir
HUNTING HORN (IRE) H4Aidan O'Brien
HUSH WRITER (JPN) H4Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott
IDAHO (IRE) H6Aidan O'Brien
ILWENDO (GER) H5Matthew Smith
INVICTUS PRINCE (GB) G6Matthew Smith
JAAMEH (IRE) G6David & B Hayes & T Dabernig
JAKE’S HILL (GB) G5Chris Waller
JON SNOW (NZ) H5Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman
KELLSTORM (IRE) H6Darren Weir
KEW GARDENS (IRE) H4Aidan O'Brien
KILIMANJARO (IRE) G7Liam Howley
KINGS WILL DREAM (IRE) G5Darren Weir
LADIES FIRST (NZ) M6Allan Sharrock
LAGOSTOVEGAS (IRE) M7William Mullins
LANCASTER BOMBER (USA) H5Aidan O'Brien
LANGLEY (JPN) H8Darren Weir
LATROBE (IRE) H4Joseph O'Brien
LIBRAN (IRE) G8Chris Waller
LIFE LESS ORDINARY (IRE) G7Chris Waller
LORD FANDANGO (GER) H6Archie Alexander
LUVALUVA (NZ) M4John Sargent
MAGIC CIRCLE (IRE) G7Ian Williams
MARMELO (GB) H6Hughie Morrison
MASTER OF REALITY (IRE) H4Joseph O'Brien
MASTER ZEPHYR (GB) G7Darren Weir
MATERIAL MAN G7Justin Warwick
MAX DYNAMITE (FR) G9William Mullins
MEGABLAST (NZ) G7Darren Weir
MIDTERM (GB) G6Liam Howley
MIGHTY BOSS H4Mick Price
MILSEAIN (NZ) M4Kris Lees
MING (IRE) G4Joseph O'Brien
MISS ADMIRATION M4Mick Price
MONGOLIANCONQUEROR (NZ) G4Stephen Autridge & Jamie Richards
MR CLARIFY (NZ) G6Wayne Walters
MR GARCIA (GB) G6Darren Weir
MR MOONLIGHT MAGIC (GB) H6James Cummings
MUNTAHAA (IRE) G6John Gosden
MUSTAJEER (GB) G6Ger Lyons
NAKEETA (GB) G8Iain Jardine
NAVAL WARFARE (IRE) G5Chris Waller
NELSON (IRE) H4Aidan O'Brien
NIGHT’S WATCH (NZ) G5Darren Weir
NORTHWEST PASSAGE G5Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott
ODEON (NZ) G5Mathew Ellerton & Simon Zahra
ONE FOOT IN HEAVEN (IRE) R7Chris Waller
OPPOSITION (GB) G6Chris Waller
ORDEROFTHEGARTER (IRE) H5Liam Howley
ORMITO (GER) G6Darren Weir
OUR ABBADEAN (NZ) M6Stephen Autridge & Jamie Richards
OUR LIBRETTO (NZ) M5Grahame Begg
OUR VENICE BEACH (IRE) H5Liam Howley
PACODALI (IRE) G6Darren Weir
PATRICK ERIN (NZ) G7Chris Waller
PENTATHLON (NZ) G7John Wheeler
PERIBSEN (IRE) H6John O'Shea
PIONEERTOWN (IRE) G5David & B Hayes & T Dabernig
PLEIN CIEL (GER) G6Darren Weir
POETIC DREAM (IRE) H5David & B Hayes & T Dabernig
POUNAMU G7Alan Mathews
PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB) G6Charlie Fellowes
PRIZE MONEY (GB) G6Saeed Bin Suroor
RED CARDINAL (IRE) G7Darren Weir
RED VERDON (USA) H6Ed Dunlop
REZEALIENT G4David & B Hayes & T Dabernig
RISING RED (NZ) G5Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young
ROMANESQUE (IRE) H6Jarrod McLean
ROSTROPOVICH (IRE) H4Aidan O'Brien
RUNAWAY R4Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott
SATONO RASEN (JPN) H7Chris Waller
SELF SENSE G8David Brideoake
SENSE OF OCCASION G8Kris Lees
SHIMRANO (GER) G7Michael Hickmott
SHRAAOH (IRE) G6Chris Waller
SIN TO WIN (NZ) G6David & B Hayes & T Dabernig
SINGLE GAZE M6Chris Waller
SIR CHARLES ROAD G5Lance O'Sullivan & Andrew Scott
SIR CHAUVELIN (GB) G7Jim Goldie
SIR JOHN LAVERY (IRE) H5Liam Howley
SIXTIES GROOVE (IRE) G6Darren Weir
SOLE IMPACT (JPN) H7Hirofumi Toda
SOPRESSA M4Darren Weir
SOUND CHECK (GER) H6Peter Schiergen
STEPS (IRE) G5Liam Howley
STRATUM (GB) G6William Mullins
SULLY (NZ) G4Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young
SUPERNOVA (GB) H4David Simcock
SURREY G6Graeme Rogerson
SYDNEY BLUE C3Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott
TALL SHIP (IRE) G8Darren Weir
TAVISTOCK ABBEY (NZ) G4Anthony Freedman
THE LORD MAYOR (NZ) G4Chris Waller
THE PENTAGON (IRE) H4Aidan O'Brien
THE STATESMAN (GB) G5Darren Weir
THE TAJ MAHAL (IRE) H5Liam Howley
THINKIN’ BIG C3Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott
THOMAS HOBSON (GB) G9William Mullins
TIBERIAN (FR) H7Alain Couetil
TIFFANY’S LASS M5Danny Laws
TOP OF THE RANGE (NZ) G5Michael Moroney
TORCEDOR (IRE) G7Andreas Wohler
TOSEN BASIL (JPN) H7Darren Weir
TRAP FOR FOOLS G5Jarrod McLean
UNFORGOTTEN M4Chris Waller
US ARMY RANGER (IRE) G6Liam Howley
VALAC (IRE) G7David & B Hayes & T Dabernig
VENGEUR MASQUE (IRE) G7Michael Moroney
VENTURA STORM (IRE) G6David & B Hayes & T Dabernig
VIN DE DANCE (NZ) G4Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman
WALL OF FIRE (IRE) H6Ciaron Maher & David Eustace
WALTON STREET (GB) G5Charlie Appleby
WEEKENDER (GB) H5John Gosden
WHEAL LEISURE M5Archie Alexander
WHO SHOT THEBARMAN (NZ) G10Chris Waller
WITHHOLD (GB) G6Roger Charlton
WOLFE TONE (NZ) H4Francis Finnegan
YOGI (NZ) G6Darren Weir
YOUNGSTAR M4Chris Waller
YUCATAN (IRE) H5Aidan O'Brien
ZACADA (NZ) G6Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman
Reply With Quote
  #20  
Old 30th August 2018, 11:52 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 963
Default

183 entrants (up from 140 last year)

No Stradivarius and no Order of St George.

Returning from last year's edition:
BIG DUKE (4th)
HUMIDOR (19th)
LIBRAN (8th)
MARMELO (9th)
MAX DYNAMITE (3rd)
NAKEETA (5th)
RED CARDINAL (11th)
THOMAS HOBSON (6th)
TIBERIAN (7th)
US ARMY RANGER (18th)
VENTURA STORM (21st)
WALL OF FIRE (16th)

#1 and #2 from last year are missing: no Rekindling or Johannes Vermeer

Who Shot Thebarman! 10 years old!

Gai Waterhouse has a pair of 3yo colts entered.

Less than 15% of nominees are Australian bred.

The O'Briens have nominated 10 Northern Hemisphere 4yos - just like Rekindling was. Only two others have: David Simcock with Supernova (unraced) and Gai Waterhouse & David Bott with Hush Writer.

19 mares.
Reply With Quote
Reply


Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On
Forum Jump



All times are GMT +10. The time now is 09:44 AM.


Powered by: vBulletin Version 3.0.3
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
©2008 OZmium Pty. Ltd. All rights reserved . ACN 091184655