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  #21  
Old 9th August 2018, 06:24 AM
demodocus demodocus is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
I prefer Maidens.
So rules:
Australian Maidens only.
8 horse field after scratchings.
Number Horse 1 or 2 only (ie top two weighted horses). If they are scratched do not go to horse 3.
Back any qualifier.
Bets : 2422
Profit before commission : $731.92 on $1 bets. Its in front even after commission.
Strike rate is 14.74%.
Its around a 24-25% race win rate.
Making a system which is profitable isn't hard.


Mornin' UB,

I had a long look using Mr Shiny's database.

WSR ..... +/- 14.25%
POT ...... (22%)
AvDiv ... $5.44

No thanks, gotta go,Mr Jack wants to go to the beach.

Take care.
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  #22  
Old 9th August 2018, 01:13 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by demodocus
Mornin' UB,

I had a long look using Mr Shiny's database.

WSR ..... +/- 14.25%
POT ...... (22%)
AvDiv ... $5.44

No thanks, gotta go,Mr Jack wants to go to the beach.

Take care.


But using what odds? Strike rate is similar so my guess is your odds are poor. The right odds turn losing systems into winning systems.
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  #23  
Old 9th August 2018, 01:20 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
But using what odds? Strike rate is similar so my guess is your odds are poor. The right odds turn losing systems into winning systems.


don't worry replying you said TAB in the other thread. That's identified the problem.
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  #24  
Old 10th August 2018, 09:43 AM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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Posts: 7,220
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Yesterday there were 6 profitable races from 22 for an overall profit of $7.

Update - there have now been 25 profitable races from 74 for a profit of $207, and 4 profitable days from 4.

From my way of mathematical thinking (most likely flawed) and though the percentages don't change for larger amount of runners the dollar amounts do immensely, so I've looked at the results for the last two days, and if I had eliminated those races of under 10 runners the method would have been more profitable by $28 for each day. So today I am only betting on qualifying races with 10 and more runners. The qualifying races are:

Ipswich
Races 5,6,7

Scone
Races 6,8

Geelong
Race 7

Canberra
Races 6,8

Last edited by michaelg : 10th August 2018 at 09:46 AM.
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  #25  
Old 10th August 2018, 10:04 AM
demodocus demodocus is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
Top 5 weighted horses generally win most of the handicaps so yes it is something that happens regularly.


Mornin' UB,

Field size doesn't help.

Handicap races w. 8 starters Top 5 WSR 77.9%
.........................14 ...........................48.9%

You can do the "dutch" numbers yrself ..... it aint nice.

:-)
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  #26  
Old 10th August 2018, 02:12 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by demodocus
Mornin' UB,

Field size doesn't help.

Handicap races w. 8 starters Top 5 WSR 77.9%
.........................14 ...........................48.9%

You can do the "dutch" numbers yrself ..... it aint nice.

:-)


Field size is irrelevant. Odds are relevant. If I get odds twice as high as yours then I am making a profit. TAB odds are the worst you could get so its only up from there.
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  #27  
Old 11th August 2018, 10:29 AM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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Yesterday there were 4 profitable races from 8 for a total profit of $2 - at least the method didn't lose and maintains its never-lost record. Today's races:

Rosehill
races 3,4,8,9

Flemington
Races 3,4,5,6,8,9

Dombeen
Races 7,8,9

Morphetville
Races 4,6,8

Belmont
races 2,5,6,7,8

Gold Coast
Races 5,8

Newcastle
Race 6

Moe
Races 3,5,6,8

Casino
Races 4,5,7

Toowoomba
Races 1,2

Cairns
Races 1,2,3,4,5,6,7

Carnavron
Races 3,5,6
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  #28  
Old 11th August 2018, 08:16 PM
Jack Jack is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by michaelg
Hi, The Ocho. These are yesterday's races and the TAB divvies:

Goulburn
Race 2 - paid $4.70
Race 5 - paid $2.80
Race 8 - paid $31.50

Geelong
Race 3 - paid $2.10
Race 4 - paid $8.00
Race 5 - paid $10.50

Gatton
Race 3 - paid $6.70

Carnavron
Race 1 - paid $4.40
Race 4 - paid $30.70
Race 6 - lost.

Even though there were only 10 races it shows promise. Maybe today it might crash big time.


Try using the top 5 in handicaps only and then backing $5.00 or better selections only BUT converting the price not divs to a 90% market from 125% may have strong possibilities BUT never outlaying more than 65% in any market
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  #29  
Old 12th August 2018, 09:47 AM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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Hi, Jack. To do that I would have to be at my computer just before the race to check the prices, but because of my circumstances (unfortunately I am disabled) I cannot do so, but it seems to have merit.

Yesterday was a god day - there were 17 profitable races from 44 for an overall profit of $70.

Today's races:

Wagga
Races 3,4,5,6,7

Sunshine Coast
Race 8

Cranbourne
Races 4,7,8,10

Narromine
Races 3,4,7,8

Port Augusta
Races 3,6,7

Devenport
Races 5,6,7,8

Kalgoorlie
Races 3,4,5,6,7
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  #30  
Old 12th August 2018, 11:18 AM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by michaelg
Yesterday was a god day - there were 17 profitable races from 44 for an overall profit of $70.



No losing days and your profit looks great. I hope the run continues
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