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  #11  
Old 3rd August 2019, 11:45 AM
entropy entropy is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by demodocus
The more I play with the stats the more i realise that the price is the indicator of success.

This table looks at races (287,983) and uses TAB price with Fav. Rank to generate WSR's. The selected field size was 9 - 13 starters.

RANK..........1.............2............3........ .....4........
$2.0...........44.8%......XX........XX..........XX
$2.5...........34.1.........XX........XX.......... XX
$3.0...........28.7........29.9.......33.3........ .XX
$3.5...........23.7........23.3.......24.1........ .XX
$4.0...........20.0........20.2.......18.4........ 16.7
$4.5...........17.9........18.1.......17.6........ 19.3
$5.0...........15.6........14.9.......14.7........ 12.9

The average Aus Field is 11 (rounded .... I can't deal with 0.18 of a horse).

Doubtless it would be possible to correct either/both WSR and Price to BSP (I haven't looked).


Thanks for the interesting table demodocus, and the nice formatting!

The final price, tote or sp, is really only known after the race: I wonder what the figures look like for the available price ie just before the jump when it is possible to get a bet on?
Perhaps pool size dependent?
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  #12  
Old 3rd August 2019, 04:24 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by entropy
Thanks for the interesting table demodocus, and the nice formatting!

The final price, tote or sp, is really only known after the race: I wonder what the figures look like for the available price ie just before the jump when it is possible to get a bet on?
Perhaps pool size dependent?


Use fixed odds instead of tote odds and you get past the final price not being known.

Also never rely on a piece of information which isn't available pre race as an input into a selection technique.

Knowing price is useful for the best predictor of success is good. Using it to be profitable is much harder.
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  #13  
Old 4th August 2019, 10:53 PM
Bhagwan Bhagwan is offline
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That's a good point UB.

To back that point up, if one were to level stakes, same amt on ea, the first 5 horses in name order in newspaper pre-post market, the level stakes loss is only -5%.

That's less of a loss than if you just bet the Fav, at level stakes,

So technically, if you could successfully delete one runner,every time, out of those 5 runners, you would be in profit.
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  #14  
Old 4th August 2019, 10:56 PM
Bhagwan Bhagwan is offline
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Correction:

That stat for 2nd favs was meant to read 20% SR not 25%
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  #15  
Old 16th August 2020, 06:47 AM
Gritz Gritz is offline
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In the old days you could always back the official favourite, I would ring up my bookmaker and ask for 20.00 on the official fav. which was declared after the event and would get paid the official starting price. These days knowing which horse will be fav., second fav, etc prior to the event is not always possible. That is why I pre-determine Fav. order from prepost prices.
An example of this was a system of place betting the fav. in the Melbourne cup. In 1974 I was at the cup intending to have a place bet on the fav.
unfortunately there were two equal favs Battle Heights and Leilani so with only a little time left before the off I tossed a coin and it came up to put the bet on Battle Heights. 200 meter's to go Battle Heights hit the lead and I was certain it would run the place and I would have a win, Alas Think Big won and Leilani ran a place and was the official fav. I have never tossed a coin since to decide what to back.


A lot of punters want to know prior to backing a fav. conditions, days since last start, where it ran last time out and a myriad of other conditions. This
link to Adrian Massey site will show the futility of all that effort.


Massey


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Last edited by Gritz : 16th August 2020 at 06:54 AM.
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  #16  
Old 16th August 2020, 06:57 AM
Gritz Gritz is offline
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That link did not work so this is the URL--


http://www.adrianmassey.com/web1/fav/fav6.php
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“Tell me and I forget. Teach me and I remember. Involve me and I learn.”
“If the plan doesn’t work, change the plan, but never the goal.”
“Let us learn to appreciate there will be times when the trees will be bare, and look forward to the time when we may pick the fruit.”
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  #17  
Old 16th August 2020, 08:52 AM
kiwi kiwi is offline
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If you remove maidens and female only the strike rate may improve.

Wow Gritz that amount of detail is impressive dude.
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Last edited by kiwi : 16th August 2020 at 08:57 AM.
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  #18  
Old 17th August 2020, 03:49 PM
123Mick 123Mick is offline
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SP Ranking over the last 12 months Saturday Melbourne Metro races
1 435 selections 127 wins 29% SR
2 435 Selections 69 wins 15% SR
3 435 Selections 60 wins 13% SR
4 435 Selections 54 wins 12% SR
5 434 Selections 37 wins 8% SR

Pre Post Fav - Same time and place
1 435 Selections 91 wins 20% SR
2 435 Selections 63 wins 14% SR
3 435 Selections 61 wins 14% SR
4 435 Selections 52 wins 11% SR
5 434 Selections 39 wins 8% SR
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  #19  
Old 17th August 2020, 07:35 PM
Gritz Gritz is offline
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Mick,


I only tested for prepost fav. Not sure what your source is, mine is Herald Sun.

My result was prepost fav that actually started. 410 starters for 119 wins = 29.02% __ First prepost in test was 17/8/2019 Race 1 "Pippie" and last horse in test was 15/8/2020 Race 9 "Showmanship" Which both won


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