I haven't found a betting system that wins yet. I have bought quite a few but wasted my money. I have tried to work out systems myself but even if they win for a while I end up losing. I'd love to see someone post all the rules of their betting system and the selections every Saturday morning. Is anyone game?

[ This Message was edited by: King Mouse on 2002-01-05 16:26 ]

You are wasting your money buying any racing systems. No systems win. The systems you have seen are all retro fitted. The rules are made up after the results to catch the winners and eliminate the losers.

I'm sort of game
I started with this 'system' based on a few books I have read and feedback from various sources. At the beginning of the spring carnival. I put a whopping $100 into 2 online accounts (to spread my bets based on who was paying the best odds). At the end of last weekend I had $152. Given the amount of time I've put in, this equates to about an hourly rate of 1c an hour :wink:

Seriously, it has not been worth the effort from a financial perspective - but I am enjoying the challenge.

So, without giving you the weightings for each category, below are most of the statistics I collect on the history of each horse running in a race that interests me :

1) Race class (difficulty)
2) Loosing Margin (in lengths)
3) Course
4) Barrier
5) Jockey
6) Running 'issues' (checks,blocks,etc)
7) Weight (carried & limit)

Each one adds up to a 'score' for the horse. You need to do this for the past few runs for each horse to get an idea of the horses form (improving or not).

For the race you are interested in you take the score for each horse and modify it based on:

1) Ratio of number of wins to races at this distance.
2) Ration of number of wins to races at this track
3) Penalties for 1st run back from a spell (weighted by age)
4) Penalties for previous declining form or bonus for previous improving form
5) Jockey
6) Barrier
7) Weight carried & weight limit
8) Ratio of total wins to races
9) Race class difference from previous runs(is the horse going up or down in class for this race)

From this I end with a final score (in lengths) for each horse and from this I frame a book. If the TAB odds are better than the ones for my winning horses, then I bet on them. I don't just pick one horse for each race, that's too hard. I try and place a number of smaller bets around my top 3-5 horses (depending on score), so that if ANY of the bets come in, I covered all others for that race. For example, if you look at my tips for the past two weekends, I've had a few donkeys in there. Fortunately, a few have paid well (Just Devine/La Zoffany quinella, Sir Talaq/Cousin Alf quinella both last week &
Let's Planet Win the week before).

Simple, right?

There are (quite) a number of faults/limitations to this 'system' that I have uncovered over time and am trying to eliminate. Most of my work has been in automating the above so I don't spend hours doing it manually.

I'm sure you can poke a few in it yourself. However, in this limited period of testing, it seems to be working reasonably well.

The above system only HELPS me work out where there is possibly a value bet. It's based on quite a number of assumptions, such as knowing when to ignore a previous race when calculating a horses history.

I'll let you know how I'm going (if I'm still going) in a year from now.

(now I wait for the waves of laughter of how I waste my time & money...)



[ This Message was edited by: mac on 2002-01-09 16:26 ]

Sounds less like a system and more like a way you've developed to organise your form study into a way of rating a field.

$100 into $152 is not much but it's exactly the same as $1000 into $1520 or $10000 into $15200.

Not a bad return for a few months work.

Good luck with your projects.

Mac
Don't be put off by your "hourly rate". 52%profit over a few months is huge. I suggest you forget your TAB accounts & get to the track. Betting with bookies you may well have doubled your bank by now. Go for it!

The results are worse than they look at first glance...

I had a bank that I only put $100 in, but my total turnover is over $700, giving me just over 7% profit on turnover (which is more relevant than my starting bank).

So I've never 'topped up' my original $100 but it, along with the winnings, have been invested again and again giving me a total outlay of $720 and a total winnings of $772.

The profit on turnover figure I think is the most relevant, even though you do need to have a large enough bank to cover bad runs - Melbourne Cup & Oaks Day were EXTREMELY bad for me...

mac,

Don't get put off by the low P/T percentage. At least it's positive. I pick value winners quite consistently, yet I haven't managed to find a way to make my bank account positive yet. After about 2000 bets, my winners percentage is at 24%, showing a bank deficit of 12% on turnover at level stakes. I only bet on value runners - it's quite normal to see winners paying around 10-15/1 mark in my book. However, the 24% winning percentage hurt me in the end. I need about 27% to break even.

If you keep trying, you may find yourself on to something. I found it possible to improve the win percentage to around 30% but you'll have to accept poor value runners. The financial results would turn out to be worse. I have always focussed on races with reliable form lines, and the "reliable" 24% mark seems to be the best I could achieve. I'm now trying a radically different approach, getting value from unknown factors, i.e. betting on 2yo, maiden, jumps races. Positive figures so far :wink: but I won't uncork my champagne bottle until I've accumulated 500 bets or so.

Keep us posted with how you go. Good luck!

acv4 you wrote .

"After about 2000 bets, my winners percentage is at 24%, showing a bank deficit of 12% on turnover at level stakes. I only bet on value runners - it's quite normal to see winners paying around 10-15/1 mark in my book. However, the 24% winning percentage hurt me in the end. I need about 27% to break even."

I mean this constructively.
Are you really backing "value runners" when from the figures you have given your average winner must be less than 3/1?
If that is the case how "normal" really are those 10/1 to 15/1 winners?
Maybe you need to have a close look at the odds you are getting. It may well be that a lot of the horses you back are not value. You also don't say whether your bets are on the tote or with the bookies. If they are on the tote at average odds of less than 3/1, then you would be showing a profit backing them at top fluctuation with the bookies - assuming they are not bush races, but Saturday/Wednesday metro races.

Catparrot,

Thanks for your constructive comments. I guess when I used the term "normal", it was a bit misleading. To clarify that, I'd like to add that it's usual to see 10-15/1 winners every 30 bets or so.

Value is a subjective concept. I believe that my perception of value is based on sound form analysis (although I'm always ready to be told otherwise), thus 2/1 or even money winners can be value sometimes. A weird pattern that I've noticed is that even though at times I've been ahead with a couple of long shots getting home, I always seemed to struggle with getting *consistent* wins paying 5-9/1. The longshots always went hand in hand with 2-3/1 winners. I haven't managed to explain this, as it seems to be associated with racing seasons. I get more 4-9/1 winners during winter, and more long shots + even money types during spring/autumn.

Here is a typical snapshot of my betting run - this one looks normal though, you probably don't want to see the losing runs.

The top fluctuation form of betting is, I admit, something I haven't got on to. I bet with DAS.

ODDS    RESULTS

3.8	loss

7.5	loss

6.5	loss

2.2	collect

10.5	collect

9.5	loss

3.0	loss

4.5	loss

17.0	loss

2.0	collect

3.0	collect

8.0	loss

7.0	loss

12.5	loss

6.5	loss

2.5	collect

7.5	loss

6.5	loss

14.0	loss

6.0	loss

12.0	loss

I hope you don't mind me saying this but there is form analysis and there is form analysis. It may well be that many of those losing horses at around $2.50 to $3.00 should only have been backed at around $5.00, so you may have really been taking unders.
Many horses around $8.00 are very poor value, but because the odds look generous punters also take them.
If those short priced collects are tote collects you are losing out big time. Go to http://www.propun.com.au/bookmakers.html and check out the tables. They are updated weekly and are a real eye opener.
DAS are brilliant with their DiviPlus for most longshots - best tote odds. But if you want to bet top fluc you must make sure not to have 5% or 10% of your winnings deducted whenever you back a winner. It is a competitive market however.
One other thing - have a look at the punting tips on this site in Punt to Win. Again, it's great value, and they are free.