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  #21  
Old 5th April 2004, 05:33 AM
good 4th good 4th is offline
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Hi Meg
Numbers 5.6.7.were only an example not to be taken for real, I should have stated that sorry.
Yes i have tried target betting like yourself and be very careful, dont take the longest runs to lightly, expect the worst as it will happen.
If you knew that your longest run out would be 24 or so you would be rich beyond you dreams but as its called Gambling this is where it all falls in a big heap, Nothing that i can find stays the same for to long eg; run outs,winning streaks and if the bank is not big enough you lose it just when everything is going great.

Numbers 1 to 5 win about 80% of the time
But still its hard to make profit even with
that info.
GD4TH

[ This Message was edited by: good 4th on 2004-04-05 06:34 ]

[ This Message was edited by: good 4th on 2004-04-05 07:33 ]

[ This Message was edited by: good 4th on 2004-04-05 08:37 ]
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  #22  
Old 5th April 2004, 08:52 AM
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Gday good 4th. I know that you were only providing an example. There is abig difference with the regularity of nos1,2,3 than any other numbers. Yes 24 is the longest run of outs I had so far, but it has harsly threatening the bank. I know bad things can happen. Do you have any info anybody on the longest runs of outs experienced by 1,2,3. The way I look at it, two out of these three numbers are still building the bank while the other is still losing, which keeps it ticking over. The regularity of these numbers to me would ensure that the risk is extremely low. Numbers 1,2,3 are quite often better quality horses and will win more races because of this. They certainly have an edge. I cant see any great risk when you put these things together. The bank is an effective $7000 at the moment and with $50 the aim to win, this is more than ample it seems. Any comments?

Cheers megamoos
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  #23  
Old 5th April 2004, 09:04 AM
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Hi again good 4th. You say nothing stays same for long enough. Are you able to pull out any saddlecloth stats. I'm sure, without positively knowing that these winning percentages are fairly constant over time. Good 4th, I would appreciate it if you could dig up instances of any of these three numbers not winning for say 72 races, thats 9 race meetings. That doesn't seem realistic.

cheers megamoos
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  #24  
Old 5th April 2004, 09:40 AM
good 4th good 4th is offline
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Meg
Are you backing track to track or race to race..
Meaning Syd, mel, bris, adel,
or syd race 1,2,3,4 etc..
I dont think i realy matters but going on a race day i was backing track to track and target betting to only make $1.00 and i had the longest loosing day ever.
get on to TABQ and go back to Monday the 1st of April 2002 and check it out. I think it will shock you how many times the number one Won. There were 55 races and number one Won once and that was Oakbank race one and Benalla race three which i missed. AFter that i had no nerves left to punt and just when i regrouped myself i struck a nother bad day, man i did'nt think it could happen but there is the proof that it can and will happen...

GD4TH


[ This Message was edited by: good 4th on 2004-04-05 10:43 ]
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  #25  
Old 5th April 2004, 09:48 AM
good 4th good 4th is offline
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Also check out the next day 2/4/2002 number one had one winner.
Im getting pains in my head re living those two days.
yeah baby......
ooohhhhhh ya

[ This Message was edited by: good 4th on 2004-04-05 10:49 ]
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  #26  
Old 5th April 2004, 10:10 AM
Shaun Shaun is offline
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Good4th he never said he was taget betting just betting to return $50 on each horse per race eg
No---prices---bet
1----2.50-----34
2----5--------12.50
3----7.50-----8

anyone of these will return $50 plus thier stake there is no progression just race to race....and on the day you mention yes there were only a couple of number 1s that won but there were a few 2 and 3 numbers wins....i don't know if this would be a winning day or not.....if i were doing this system i would put a minimum price on any one of the selections and if any were that price i would pass the race because even getting a winner at that price will result in a low return like not takeing even money or odds on....that would be a bad move
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  #27  
Old 5th April 2004, 10:21 AM
good 4th good 4th is offline
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Cool Shaun,
Thats still target betting no matter which way you look at it...
Would'nt you be better just having lets say $10.00 on the nose on numbers 1,2,3 ???? If you limit your self to just return $50 I THINK your loosing in the long run as you might miss the big one that gets up and limiting your return..
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  #28  
Old 5th April 2004, 10:37 AM
Shaun Shaun is offline
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Yes very true but as the example shows above the 2.50 if it had won would have returned a loss but betting to prices there was a $30 profit to be made....i guess if the prices are big enough you could always put some extra on retesting his results would be the only solution
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  #29  
Old 5th April 2004, 10:52 AM
Merriguy Merriguy is offline
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But, Shaun, he is target betting.

Look at his example of the runs of outs. If the fifty is not won in this race the bet goes onto the outlay for the next until the number wins. So in your example, if 1 wins, 2 is backed next time to win $62.50 and 3 to win $58.00. Of course, if 1 does not win, the aim for 1 is $84.00 next time --- and that is the way things can accelerate, especially if 1 (or any other number) is odds on or nearly so.
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  #30  
Old 5th April 2004, 11:04 AM
Shaun Shaun is offline
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i just had a shower and a think and you are right...sorry about that...he is doing the same as i do but i am backing horses from a spell to win $100 so when they win i win my $100 plus losses and i know what you mean about adding up some i am backing are comeing up to thier 4th run with no winner
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