Guys,

Perhaps to keep safe with management, post your strike rate and average dividend (shouldn't give too much away), and I'll post the expected stats here.

Thanks Chrome,

90 bets [count as 1 unit each]
27 wins
130.6 units return

Longest run of outs has been 9, but that is really meaningless.

Cheers.

[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2004-06-18 17:45 ]

For a Win % of 30.0% over 1,000 trials, the expected LLS are ...



Exp # of LS of length   3 is 103  Prob of one or more LS is  100.00%

Exp # of LS of length   4 is  72  Prob of one or more LS is  100.00%

Exp # of LS of length   5 is  50  Prob of one or more LS is  100.00%

Exp # of LS of length   6 is  35  Prob of one or more LS is  100.00%

Exp # of LS of length   7 is  25  Prob of one or more LS is  100.00%

Exp # of LS of length   8 is  17  Prob of one or more LS is  100.00%

Exp # of LS of length   9 is  12  Prob of one or more LS is  100.00%

Exp # of LS of length  10 is   8  Prob of one or more LS is   99.98%

Exp # of LS of length  11 is   6  Prob of one or more LS is   99.76%

Exp # of LS of length  12 is   4  Prob of one or more LS is   98.47%

Exp # of LS of length  13 is   3  Prob of one or more LS is   94.54%

Exp # of LS of length  14 is   2  Prob of one or more LS is   86.83%

Exp # of LS of length  15 is   1  Prob of one or more LS is   75.70%

Exp # of LS of length  16 is   1  Prob of one or more LS is   62.76%

Exp # of LS of length  17 is   1  Prob of one or more LS is   49.84%

Hello Chrome,

Some of my systems. Data more than 1 year. Been following for 6 months.

Name Str/rate Av Win Div Av div
1 35 $3.31 1.16
2 43 3.59 1.55
3 46 4.04 1.85
4 31 4.41 1.37
5 40 4.83 1.97
6 35 3.88 1.33
7 24 4.90 1.15
71 33 4.19 1.39
72 30 4.37 1.30


Some don't have many selections each year but some have quite a few.

Would appreciate it if you could tell me what search words to use to find a calculator on the web.

__________________
bren250

Losing Sequence Formula

Number of bets=1/(1-strike rate)n
n= number of losing sequences.
Strike rate is expressed as decimal.
/ means ¡§divide by¡¨
How many bets am I likely to have before I experience a losing sequence of 5. Strike rate is 25% (ie 0.25)
Bets=1/(1-0.25)5
=1/(0.75)5
= 1/(0.75x0.75x0.75x0.75x0.75)
=1/0.237
=4.2
ie 4 bets

There is also a formula for the longest losing sequence, but can¡¦t find it at the moment.

Thanks Chrome,

Looks like a run of 9 outs per 100 bets is roughly typical around my strike rate.

I can live with that and might start upping the anti on bet size a little, though not nearly enough bets yet for the strike rate to be taken too seriously.

cheers.

[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2004-06-18 20:26 ]

The formula I use is as follows,It's easy to use once you've done it a couple of times.

Predicting the number of losing runs of a given length, against a given strike rate:

X = N x S^2 x (1 - S)^L,

Where:-

X = Numner of losing runs of length L
N = Number of results.
S = Strikerate (as a decimal fraction).
^ = To the power of.
L = Length of losing run you wish to investigate.

So for example, if you have 100 results and a strikerate of 30% and you want to know how many losing runs of 4 you should have, the calculation becomes:-

X = 100 x 0.3^2 x (1-0.3)^4
= 2.16

and for losing runs of 10,

X = 100 x 0.3^2 x (1-0.3)^10
= 0.25

This last calculation means that you have a 25% chance of 1 losing run of 10 in your 100 results, so if you continue with this system you would expect to have 1 losing run of 10 at 400 results.

It's interesting to note that it doesn't matter how high your strikerate is (except for 100%), if you work to enough decimal places you will always get a positive value, thus indicating that however small the probability, there is no length of losing run your results cannot theoretically contain.

"The academics have taken over the assylum", expected run of outs????, fantasy stuff. I'd be more interested in expected run of ins. Useless information. What do you do when you come to the limit of your so called expected run of outs?, plonk what's left of your bank & confidence on the next selection? (does it know about your expected run of outs?), and if it gets beaten, what then ???

I have to agree with mark here, what actual value do these calculations have?

Any realistic punter knows he's going to hit a bad streak now & again, some worse than others, & no amount of planning or calculations can avoid this.

I would suggest instead of focusing on how best to protect your bank when the inevitable happens, with for example a 'stop loss' of some sort, that is suspend betting once a certain amount of losers in a row has been struck & start again once a winner strikes & the horror is over.

ps - which was advice I did read on this forum some time ago.


[ This Message was edited by: davez on 2004-06-19 14:00 ]

Hi Mark,

Never been called an academic or a lunatic before but I'll take both on board :lol:

I don't think it's useless information, but a GUIDE - that's all. I'd be dumping my system long before I hit the longest run of outs, not plonking on the next selection.

We all know that horseracing is not like other games of chance, there are variables to the chances, so the LRO is a guide only to what the mathematical expectation should be. Therefore if my system hit anywhere near the average losing sequence - I'd dump it. But that's just my take on it.