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  #11  
Old 12th June 2002, 12:13 PM
Rain Lover Rain Lover is offline
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The "stable system" can be fun but don't rely on it as a moneymaker. The main flaw in it is that if you have correctly selected the "best of the best", you will end up punting on Group & Listed races, where you will have several, if not 3,4 or 5 of your stable horses running. It's guaranteed that the odds will be such that you'll lose if you back all of them.
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  #12  
Old 12th June 2002, 12:29 PM
Equine Investor Equine Investor is offline
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Yes, you may lose on the race...but based on backing the next five runs of each runner for example, you would win.
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  #13  
Old 12th June 2002, 02:46 PM
Shaun Shaun is offline
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This is the system i use...when i spoke about it in the forum a month ago i was told that PPM had a system like this and in the end it failed...if anyone knows the rules they used to pick thier selections would love to know them....to see why they lost and i win...maybe it has something to do with my limit of no more than 20 horses to the stable and only following them for 10 runs if no wins..
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  #14  
Old 12th June 2002, 02:53 PM
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" Yes, you may lose on the race...but based on backing the next five runs of each runner for example, you would win."

What kind of logic is that - how can you win LT by placing losing bets???

This so-called stable system is a black book system, whereby you keep your blackbook up to date and current. 000's of people do it and still lose - because:

1. They select the wrong horses to follow.
2. Several of these horses are in the same race - so one is confused on which to back - betting on all results in a loss.
3. A horse is added to the black book (stable) after it has already peaked and is on the way down.
4. A horse runs a good race - say 4th or 5th, whereby it looked like it would have won given more ground - when it fact it was
a peak performance and made to look good by the pace of the race.
5. There horses are starting at short prices.
6. The blackbook or stable gets out of hand, ie you have too many horses in it and you don't know which to cull.

Most people have put together a "stable" will not win due to these factors, unless there initial selection process is sound and they are able to recognise when a horse is "under" or "overs" in the market.

The only "killing" going on is when you eliminate a horse from your stable and it comes out and wins.



[ This Message was edited by: chief on 2002-06-12 15:57 ]
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  #15  
Old 12th June 2002, 03:08 PM
Equine Investor Equine Investor is offline
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Chief, we have to agree to disagree here...It is not about winning one race, it is about winning on the horse alone. The chances of your horse winning in five starts (providing your selection criteria is sound) is much greater than finding the winner of the race. What you haven't mentioned are the times when you back 3 horses in the race and the 10/1 plus runner salutes. Especially in high class races it is possible to back more than one horse and still make a decent profit.

A blackbook system is a little different...that is, you see a horse that was unlucky, or won a race well and follow it after the fact. Yes you are bound to lose if this is your only selection criteria. Class is the major factor when selecting a stable, not current form.

As I have said before I select my stable on Class factor and not fitness nor recent performance, if a horse fails to run up to expectations...not necessarily win, within five starts he is sacked from the stable.

Shaun...I know what PPM did, it was called the dark horse system and it had basic flaws.
1. Horses selected were not selected by class, they were selected merely because they won one race each campaign.
2. They would back a horse first up merely because it won first up before without taking into consideration class factors.
3. They would assume that the horse would peak at precisely the same time each preparation and this simply does not happen exactly at the same time each preparation.

That is why their Dark Horse system failed.

You sound like you have the right idea though!
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  #16  
Old 12th June 2002, 03:25 PM
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If you lose on the race, winning on the horse alone means nothing.
Better to put your money in the pokies
Put $100 into one machine and lose it.
The take another $50 and turn it into $100.
WOW - YOU WON $50.... GREAT. PITY YOU LOST THE INITIAL $100.

BETTING ON 3 HORSES IN A RACE IS FINE, IF YOU WIN, AS LONG AS ANYONE ONE OF THEM SALUTES - IF YOU CAN'T WIN BY DOING THIS - ITS NOT LOGICAL TO BET IN THE FIRST PLACE.

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  #17  
Old 12th June 2002, 03:28 PM
Equine Investor Equine Investor is offline
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O.K. Chief, I'll demonstrate - my other posting is up now.
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  #18  
Old 13th June 2002, 11:00 AM
Shaun Shaun is offline
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i have a site that is good for blackbook horses they will e-mail you when they are enterd to race http://www.racenet.com.au/blackbook.asp
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  #19  
Old 13th June 2002, 01:42 PM
Equine Investor Equine Investor is offline
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Yep, it's a good service Shaun but as soon as you get your email, you have to re-enter it in their database.

Try this one...it's good for 6 weeks and you can auto update all entries at once for a further 6 weeks.

http://www.racingandsports.com.au/bb_index.asp
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  #20  
Old 13th June 2002, 02:06 PM
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I use r&s BB.
I haven't updated for several months and I still get emailed horses every week. Sometimes, they even email you 2 days in advance. ie thursday arvo for saturday.
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