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  #21  
Old 18th August 2005, 09:04 PM
blocka blocka is offline
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Hey Dr,
Can you explain what you mean by 'Must have a Predicted Posn Rank 1-3 per Bet Selector'
Also have a look at results for price <=$5 rather than >
Cheers,
Blocka
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  #22  
Old 18th August 2005, 09:16 PM
Zlotti Zlotti is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blocka
Hey Dr,
Can you explain what you mean by 'Must have a Predicted Posn Rank 1-3 per Bet Selector'
Also have a look at results for price <=$5 rather than >
Cheers,
Blocka

Is that you again Roachy?
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  #23  
Old 18th August 2005, 09:52 PM
Dr Pangloss Dr Pangloss is offline
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Blocka

I pulled this thing apart and put it back again piece by piece. The weakness in all these systems, as has been stated ad nauseum, is that they all suffer from back-fitting. Thus the chances of future performance resembling past performance is tenuous indeed.

Having said all that - let me say this. The underlying "theme" of this system is that form horses (placed last start), underated by the handicapper (52.5 kg or less) can offer enough value to squeeze out a profit.

The "top trainer" filter sought to qualify the selections. I discarded this in favour of a more race objective and enduring filter in the shape of a ratings "rank". The "ratings" I chose belongs to the software known as Bet Selector.

Bet Selector has three ratings methods available to use and backtest on a set of given variables. I cherry picked the PP ratings as the best performing under the given scenario. Each of the different "ratings" produced substantial profits, but PP ratings generated the most. I would suggest ratings from say UniTab or other sources could be substituted with profitable effect.

I also discarded Brisbane and Adelaide as these venues produced a smallish loss. Back-fitting?? You be the judge.

Horses under 5.0 produced smaller profits for the past two years (from memory) but beyond that generated larger losses which surprised me a bit. But if you included them all a substantial profit would have still been made.

Overall I am cautiuosly optimistic about this system that seeks out the contrary or the overlooked but rated and in-form contender.

PS Don't tell anyone as I'm thinking of flogging this in Kenchar's favourite racing magazine.
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  #24  
Old 19th August 2005, 01:05 AM
partypooper partypooper is offline
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Gawd Doc. you sounded "ALMOST" human there!!!
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  #25  
Old 22nd August 2005, 07:05 PM
Chuck Chuck is offline
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Glenno - how do you access posts from the old forum?
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  #26  
Old 23rd August 2005, 09:34 AM
davez davez is offline
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Thumbs down sorry, nup

nup wont work this one, has all the hallmarks of a system my old dad ran 20? years ago, no idea what the name of it was but it soon put a sizable hole in his sky rocket after looking good on paper (not that he hadnt done that before!)

would have also thought the small increases in limit weights over time would have cut selections substantialy.
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  #27  
Old 23rd August 2005, 10:08 AM
darkydog2002 darkydog2002 is offline
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Smile darkydog2002

DAVEZ,

That system your dad had .
It wouldn,t have been "George Greys Infallible racing system "would it.?

Cheers.
darky.
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  #28  
Old 23rd August 2005, 01:12 PM
Glenno Glenno is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chuck
Glenno - how do you access posts from the old forum?

Which forum are you talking about?
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  #29  
Old 23rd August 2005, 04:47 PM
beton beton is offline
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This forum was upgraded some time back and the link to the old threads have gone but if you use search you can still pick them up as complete threads

Regards Beton
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  #30  
Old 24th August 2005, 08:17 AM
davez davez is offline
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Question darkydog2002

Quote:
Originally Posted by darkydog2002
DAVEZ,

That system your dad had .
It wouldn,t have been "George Greys Infallible racing system "would it.?

Cheers.
darky.


doesnt ring a bell darky, but well could have been.

however using the word "infallible" to describe one's product would usually have sent the old man running the other way!
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