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XP: See below for information about these predictions and betting ideas
Super Rugby Week 13, Trans-Tasman 1, 14-15 May 2021, 5 Games
HW=Home Win, AW=Away Win
Difference= Predicted home team score - away team score
HS= Home Score, AS = Away Score
Home Team Away Team Probab. Difference/
Fair Odds HS AS Total
HW AW
----------------------------------------------
Highlanders(N) Reds(A) 0.57 0.43 2
1.76 2.32 28 26 54
Waratahs(A) Hurricanes(N) 0.23 0.77 -10
4.28 1.30 21 32 53
Crusaders(N) Brumbies(A) 0.70 0.30 8
1.43 3.35 29 22 51
Rebels(A) Blues(N) 0.37 0.63 -5
2.70 1.59 23 28 50
W.Force(A) Chiefs(N) 0.41 0.59 -3
2.42 1.70 23 26 50
----------------------------------------------
Last Week Favorite Predictd 0.62
Last Week Actual 1.00
----------------------------------------------
Season Favorite Predicted 0.67
Season Actual 0.70
Computer Ratings
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PLACE TEAM RATING
1 Crusaders(N) 106.1
2 Blues(N) 101.6
3 Reds(A) 98.7
4 Brumbies(A) 97.8
5 Highlanders(N) 97.8
6 Hurricanes(N) 97.7
7 Chiefs(N) 95.2
8 Rebels(A) 87.7
9 W.Force(A) 84.1
10 Waratahs(A) 73.7
Super Rugby Predictions
There are eight predictions for each match. The eight predictions are organized in two rows. HW means a home win, AW means an away win. HS= Predicted Home Score, AS = Predicted Away Score.
Home Team Away Team Prob. Prob Score
HW AW Difference
Fair Fair HS AS Total
Odds Odds Score
HW AW
Row one: Prob. HW = Predicted Probability of a Home Win,
Prob. AW = Predicted Probability of an Away Win
Score Difference = Predicted HS - Predicted AS
Row two: Fair odds for a HW = 1 / Predicted Probability for a HW
Fair odds for an AW = 1 / Predicted Probability for an AW
HS= Predicted Home Score, AS = Predicted Away Score
Predicted Total Score = HS+AS
For this season of Super Rugby, we are down to 10 teams, five from Australia and five from New Zealand.
How the System Works
My Super Rugby prediction system has been developed after some 20,000 predictions in a variety of sports. I start with an offensive and defensive rating for each team from the previous season and then adjust ratings using results from the new season, game-by-game. Each offensive rating is adjusted, based on
Points scored by the team
Opponent defensive rating
Home advantage
Number of games for each team
Each defensive rating is adjusted depending on
Points scored against the team
Opponent offensive rating
Home advantage
Number of games for each team
Total rating is offensive rating minus defensive rating.
To predict the home-team score for the next game I use
Score difference
Home team offensive rating
Away team defensive rating
Home advantage
To predict the away-team score I use
Score difference
Away team offensive rating
Home team defensive rating
Home advantage
To predict total-score I add the home team score to the away team score.
I also predict the probability that each team will win, using
Score difference
Normal distribution (bell curve)
Suggested Betting Rules
My fair odds can be used to place money line bets. There would be an overlay money line value bet if the bookie odds is more than my predicted fair odds. My predicted score difference can also be used to make handicap and other bets. I have published prediction for 28 seasons of English Premier League soccer, Super 12/14/15/18 Rugby, Zurich/Guinness rugby and NFL football. I evaluated 3091 games using the betting rules below in which 1163 bets resulted in a profit on turnover of 15%.
Make a list of games with value bets where the decimal odds Rb for a bookmaking organization is more than my fair odds Rf, that is when Rb>Rf.
Calculate of the Kelly Rule for each value bet, which gives the fraction of your bankroll to bet on each game. The Kelly Rule for maximum exponential return on your bankroll is to bet a fraction of your bankroll equal to the ratio of the expected profit divided by the possible profit. I then take half of that rule which was originally intended for one-off bets and not for a week of league matches. The result is a fraction F = 0.5 [(Rb/Rf-1)/(Rb-1)].
Drop any value bet where Rb >4.35. You will win less often than 23% of the time and you may have to go too many games without a return, depleting your bankroll. (If you want to be more aggressive than my suggestion and book longshots with Rb>4.35, do so if you are comfortable with that, but be prepared for a string of losses.) .
Do not make a value bet with Rb>=4 unless you have at least three more bets with Rb<4.
Drop any value bet where Rb <1.5. Your earnings would be too small to take the risk.
Drop any value bet less than 1.5% of your bankroll. Thats not enough to bother with.
Limit any one bet to 10% of your bankroll, so you do not put too much importance on any one bet.
Add up the F values and call that total T. Dont bet more than 25% of your bankroll (T more than .25) for any one week. If T is more than .25, multiply each fraction by .25/T. All value bets will be scaled down proportionally so the total bet is 25% of your bankroll.
Some bets may now be less than 1.5% of your bankroll. Drop those.
Multiply each fraction by your bankroll to get your bet for each game.
If you only have one bet, luck cant even out with other bets. It is better not to bet at all.Decide how strongly you feel about that one bet.
Example Using the Betting Rules
Here is an example to show you how to use my predictions and the betting rules. Suppose you use Step 1 and find that there are six cases where the bookie decimal odds Rb is more than my fair odds Rf. Lets look at the six possible value bets and decide how much to wager for a bankroll of 1000.
TeamRfRbCommentFReduce the Fs so the total is 0.25, by multiplying by .25/TDrop any fraction
<.015Multiply by a bankroll of 1000Crusaders1.121.40Rb is less than 1.5, no bet0000Lions4.204.40Rb is more than 4.23, no bet0000Bulls1.151.90F is .36, reduce to .10.100.0825.082582.5Highlanders1.422.30F is .24, reduce to .10.100.0825.082582.5Reds2.102.75Find F.088.073.07373Brumbies3.674.00Find F.015.0120 0TotalT=.303.250.238238
Although the Crusaders and Lions have a larger Rb than my Rf, Rb is too small for the Crusaders (less than 1.5 from Step 4) and Rb is too large for the Lions (more than 4.23 from Step 3). There would be no bet for those cases. We next calculate F for the other four teams. For example, using Step 2 for the Bulls, F is 0.5 [(1.90/1.15-1) / (1.90-1)] which is 0.5 (.65/.90) = .36 which has to be reduced to .10 as per Step 6. The total of the Fs is 0.303, which is 30.3% of the bankroll, more than a safer 25% of the bankroll. If we want to bet no more than 25% of the bankroll, then we find .25/T for Step 7 which is .25/.303. We multiply each F by that ratio to have a total F of .25. For Step 8, we zero out the bet on the Brumbies which is less than 1.5% of the bankroll, being 1.2%. Finally, we multiply the F values by a bankroll of, say, 1000 to get bets of 82.5, 82.5, and 73 for a total of 238. I do know that this strategy works.
Good Luck.
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