EPL Round 23
 

Round 24 will follow in mid week after Round 23 so both sets of fixtures are considered to be congested.

I have to admire Liverpool for gaining the most points ever after 21 matches among the top five leagues in Europe. They have had to deal with congested EPL fixtures along with a tough but successful slate of cup matches. Jurgen Klopp is the kind of coach they seem to want to play for.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 24
 

Here come some mid-week matches. I think cold weather added to upcoming mid-week matches made teams play even more carefully in Round 23 than in recent congested fixtures. We had seen an average of 2 draws per round for the last 12 rounds. There were 5 draws in Round 23. Typical of congested fixtures, bets on all underdogs would have returned a 40% profit.

In spite of cold weather and congested fixtures, Liverpool continues to lead the way.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 24
 

By accident, I just re-posted EPL Round 23 instead of Round 24. Here is EPL Round 24.

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 25
 

Because of FA Cup matches, most EPL teams will have two games in less than a week. Liverpool and West Ham will play three because they will make up a postponed match.

In congested Round 24, if someone bet on all underdogs they would have made a 53% profit.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 26
 

Round 26 has an odd schedule. Games are spread from 8-17 February, apparently to spread out EPL games for teams involved in FA Cup, Champions League and Europa League games. Be sure to check the schedule of any teams you like for Round 26 to be sure they don't have any cup matches within days.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

It's been a long,,long time between drinks,,but The Reds are doing it with style

EPL Round 27 predictions will be delayed
 

The Man City-West Ham match from Round 26 was postponed due to weather and then it was rescheduled for Wednesday. I'll wait until it's over to make my Round 27 predictions: that was all teams will have played all 26 rounds.

Cheers,

Ray

EPL Round 27
 

Now that the Liverpool-West Ham match has been made up, all teams have played 26 matches. Burnley supporters cashed a nice value bet.

Here is Round 27. Be aware that because of cup matches, six teams will not have the normal rest before Round 27: Arsenal, Chelsea, Tottenham, Liverpool, Man U and Wolves.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 28
 

Round 27 went quite well. All nine matches that were not drawn were won by my favourites.

We aware about Round 28. Most EPL team have to play mid-week cup matches before, after or both for the next weekend. The EPL had to postpone Aston Villa-Sheffield and Man City-Arsenal. The only matches not affected by congested fixtures are Brighton-Crystal Place and West Ham-Southampton.

Good luck with the swirl of cup and EPL matches.

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 29
 

There were only two matches among the eight in Round 28 where neither team had a mid-week cup match. In those two matches, value bets paid off for supporters of Crystal Palace and West Ham. For the six matches with congested fixtures, a bet of one unit on each underdog would have returned 15, the usual case for congested fixtures.

For Round 29, mid-week cup matches will be played just before or after EPL by Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Newcastle, Leicester, Tottenham, Wolves, Man U and Man City. That leaves only the Crystal Palace-Watford and Sheffield-Norwich matches as not being congested fixtures.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 30
 

For Round 29, I could only find one match that wasn’t congested: Crystal Place vs Watford. Crystal Palace supporters cashed a value bet, if they didn’t mind just having one bet.

There are 11 matches being played in Round 30. Man City is playing Arsenal to make up a previously-postponed match. There are a lot of cup matches also affecting Round 30. Here are the teams involved in congested fixtures: Man City, Arsenal, West Ham, Tottenham, Liverpool, Chelsea, Man U and Wolves.

Round 31 will probably involve only 6 matches because four have been postponed due to cup matches.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

COVID-19 Rounds 30 and 31
 

The winner of Round 30 was the Corona-virus. Rounds 30 and 31 are postponed, at the very least. The EPL says Round 32 will start on 4 April. We'll see.

Now be sure to wash your hands after reading this from a meter away.

Cheers,

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 30 again.
 

The EPL is starting up after three months in limbo. Here is Round 30 again but with the second make-up match: Aston Villa vs Sheffield. The 12 games are squeezed into 5 days from 17-22 June to be followed by 10 more games from 23-25 June. Talk about congested fixtures!

With empty stadiums, the home advantage should be less in two ways. The home players won’t have as much psychological boost and referees who usually favour the home team with a loud crowd will have silence. There were studies where refs watched videos in a studio, half with crowd noise and half without. The ones that watched with crowd noise called “virtual” fouls more often on the visitors. The refs without sound called fouls about equally.

I checked the bookie prices from three months ago when we were supposed to have Round 30 the first time. The home team payoffs have been increased and the visitor payoffs are now less, which tells us that the bookies are calling for less home advantage. I could have guessed at a lower home advantage but I’d rather let my system find the home advantage as we play on

We will find out what effect the three months off had on physical conditioning and team cohesiveness.

Bet cautiously as we start up and stay well, my friends!

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 31
 

If you blink, you will miss an EPL Round. They will play about twice a week for all but the last week of the season. You will have to use your judgement about how you want to bet on such congested fixtures. There were 4 draws in Round 30, which is what we expect when fixtures come fast and furious.

Cheers,

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 32 already
 

Looks like we just have to get used to the new abnormal. From what we have seen for two weeks, teams cannot hold back during these congested fixtures to be rested when normal pacing returns, which won’t happen, except for the last round. The EPL home teams have done about what we thought, even without fans. My favourite has won 12 of 16 games not drawn. My favourite Burnley won in a bookie upset. So, good luck with the new abnormal.

Liverpool has to thank Chelsea for beating Man City and giving Liverpool the title. Now, Liverpool travels to Man City. Should be spirited to say the least. Too bad a stadium full of Citizens can’t say hello. Somehow, I think City fans will find a way to be heard.

Now, here comes EPL Round 33
 

We had some sanity in Round 32 and some congested fixtures insanity. The sanity was that values bets were cashed by Newcastle and by Sheffield supporters. The insanity, as we have seen before with congested fixtures, is that if someone bet equally on all bookie underdogs, they wouldn’t just have had a small profit, they would have had a crazy 80% profit.

Take a quick breath and let’s see what the weekend round has in store for us.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 34
 

Rounds 30 and 31 were the first of a long set of congested fixtures with two rounds per week. Those two round went mostly as expected. Of course, the teams had been off for weeks and, although a bit rusty, were rested.

However, rounds 32 and 33 showed that some teams were saving energy. If you bet equally on all bookie underdogs, you would have had an 80% profit for round 32 and a 43% profit for round 33. The teams are becoming unreliable as we have seen often when they get fatigued during congested fixtures. Be very skeptical as you look for value bets.

EPL Round 35
 

This will be the sixth round since June 17th. It's not a surprise that the two big cashing value bets for Round 34 were both for bookie underdogs: Sheffield and Burnley.

May you and good luck have very little social distancing between you.

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 36
 

Value bets were cashed by supporters of Tottenham and Wolves. Then, in typical congested fixtures fashion, Liverpool and Man U both settled for draws against much weaker opponents. If you bet equally on all underdogs, you only would have only had a 10% profit this time, which is a good sign.

Here comes Round 36.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 37
 

There is just one more round after this.

Leicester and West Ham supporters cashed value bets in Round 36. My favourites won 6 of the 7 matches that weren't drawn, so I think the teams are playing at their best with the end in sight.

Good luck and be well!

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 38 and last
 

Last week's value bet was cashed by Liverpool supporters.

I am out of breath following all the 8 rounds played since June 30 in less than 6 weeks. Imagine how the players feel.

Here is the final round of a certifiably crazy EPL season.

Stay well until we meet again in cyber space.

Ray Stefani

Looking Back at the 2019-2020 Season
 

The crazy 2019-2020 EPL season has mercifully come to an end. We can look back and learn. For the first 29 rounds, we carefully avoided congested fixtures and made a 43% profit on turnover, placing value bets and betting amounts as suggested by my round-by-round posts.

Had anyone bet on the 9 rounds of congested fixtures, there would have been a 35% loss. If anyone bet equally on all underdogs for those 9 congested rounds, they would have had a 43% profit, which tells you how unpredictable the top teams were. Unexpectedly, they would rest top players or just go through the motions to preserve their players for cup matches. A number of hopeless underdogs won.

When play resumed with round 30, all rounds had congested fixtures through round 38, the last round. After rounds 30 and 31, I wrote that the games seemed to be reasonably played without the major surprises we usually have with congested fixtures. For rounds 32-38, using value bets with the usually amounts bet, there was a 7.7% profit on turnover. Betting on all underdogs would only have paid a 3.5% profit. The congested fixtures for round 32-38 were much more predicable than earlier congested fixtures, but still less than half as profitable as the average for all past seasons.

That’s like saying someone had COVID but the case wasn’t as bad as it could have been. I think it’s better not to have COVID at all and next season, I think we should resume not betting when fixtures are congested. The teams should have about a week before and after each match or fixtures are congested. I understand that there will be an effort to schedule to avoid congested fixtures due to cup matches.

Meanwhile, stay well!

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 5
 

I thought it was about time to restart my English Premier League predictions. If it wasn’t crazy 2020, I would have thought the scores for Round 4 had to be wrong. Tottenham beat Man U 6-1 and Aston Villa beat defending champion Liverpool 7-2. Can you imagine 13 goals being let in by Man U and Liverpool in the same day, let alone the same century? One of those goals was priceless. AV kicked a hard cross in front of the Liverpool goal, which hit a Liverpool defender on the side of his face and banked 90 degrees, like a billiard ball off the rail, into the Liverpool goal. Even Liverpool coach Juergen Klopp had to laugh about that one.

Before Round 4, all but 2 EPL teams played mid-week cup matches so Round 4 had congested fixtures. Consistent with my earlier posts about congested rounds, if you bet equally on all underdogs for Round 4, you would have had a 72% profit.

After 38 games, the home teams have three more losses than wins. After all, it is 2020.

Here are Round 5 predictions. Bear in mind that between Rounds 5 and 6, 8 teams play cup matches, so their EPL matches are congested fixtures for Rounds 5 and 6. Those are: Chelsea, Everton, Liverpool, Leicester, Arsenal, Man City, Man U and Tottenham.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 6
 

Every week, something happens to remind us that this is crazy 2020. I warned about congested fixtures for Round 5. There had been only three draws in the first four rounds, but then up popped six draws in Round 5. The home teams had a losing record through Round 4 and then had another losing week in Round 5.

We have major issues with the ratings at this point. There were incredibly big upsets among usually top teams as I mentioned in earlier sends. That dropped their ratings and raised the unexpected winners’ ratings by an unusual large amount. Usually it takes a couple of weeks for either the ratings of top teams to move back up or show us they aren’t that good this year. Continued congested fixtures and training interruptions have made meaningful adjustments difficult for top teams. For example, due to Champion’s League and Europa League fixtures, for Rounds 6 and 7, there will be congested fixtures for Man City, Liverpool, Chelsea, Man U, Leicester, Arsenal, and Tottenham.

It’s pretty hard to believe that in the EPL table, Liverpool is third, Tottenham is seventh, Man City is eleventh and Man U is twenty third.

My advice is to be very cautious for at least two or three more weeks.

Stay well,

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 7
 

I can't say that ratings got adjusted closer to where they ought to be. There were still four draws and home teams only won 2 and lost 4 matches, while drawing 4 to have an even worse losing record for the season.

Remember that seven teams have congested fixtures for Round 7: Chelsea, Leicester, Liverpool, Man U, Arsenal, Man City, and Tottenham.

Stay well,

Ray Stefani

Round 7 Predictions
 

These do not get uploaded somehow

Round 8 Predictions
 

The teams seem to have found a way to accommodate congested fixtures. I mentioned that Leicester, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manu U, Man City, Arsenal and Tottenham all played mid-week European Champions League or Europa League matches. All but Tottenham won. On the weekend, two played versus each other and the other five won.

I mentioned some outrageously one-sided upsets of top teams that played havoc with the ratings of any teams involved that week and teams that played involved teams later. I found a way to adjust for those massively unusual results. I think this week’s ratings are accurate.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 9
 

The adjustments I made because of some outrageous upsets in the first few weeks seem to have worked. My favourites won 6 of the 8 games not drawn. Value bets cashed by Leicester and West Ham supporters.

Round 9 will be played 21-22 November. Good luck!

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 10
 

It was great to have a round without congested fixtures. My favourites won 6 of the 8 non-drawn matches. Value bets cashed for West Ham and Tottenham supporters.

Seven teams play mid-week cup matches in Round 10 so beware for Arsenal, Liverpool, Chelsea, Tottenham, Leicester, Man City and West Ham.

Good luck to all,

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 11
 

The lessons we’ve learned really paid off in Round 10. Seven teams had congested fixtures in Round 10 and will also have congested fixtures in Round 11: Arsenal, Chelsea, Leicester, Liverpool, Man City, Man U, and Tottenham. Arsenal, Leicester, Liverpool and Chelsea were strong favourites in Round 10, but their congested fixtures suggested not betting on them in Round 10. The first two lost and the second two drew in Round 10.

There were four matches without congested fixtures. Bookmaker odds suggested value bets supporting favourite West Ham and underdogs Newcastle and Leeds. All three won, cashing value bets resulting in a 200% profit.

Good luck with Round 11, being careful of teams with congested fixtures..

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 12
 

In spite of this being the outrageous 2020, my favourites won all 8 matches in Round 11 that were not drawn. Excluding congested fixtures, value bets were cashed by supporters of Southampton and Crystal Palace. A value bet on Everton was lost on a draw. So, we had a 93% profit on turnover.

For Round 12. The same seven teams as in Round 11 have congested fixtures.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 13
 

I mentioned that 7 EPL teams have had congested fixtures due to cup competitions. Only Man U was eliminated. The other 6 not only advanced to the knock-out phase; but all of the 6 finished at the top of their groups. Chelsea, Liverpool and Man City advanced in the Champions League while Arsenal, Leicester and Tottenham advanced in the Europa League. Of course, all 7 very tired teams ran into weekend fixture issues. Man U and Man City went through the motions for a 0-0 draw. The other five, all favourites, lost 2, drew 2 and only won once. That’s typical for congested fixtures.

Predictions for the first weeks of this season were dismal as teams struggled to get back into playing shape and learned to play without fans. I mentioned that I then compensated for some hugely unexplainable match upsets by top teams. Predictions improved. Beginning with Round 10, the system started using numbers from this season, such as the fact that there is no home advantage. There was an immediate improvement. By not considering congested fixtures, in Round 10, all three value bets cashed for a 195% profit. In Round 11, 2 of 3 value bets cashed for a 93% profit. In Round 12, all 3 value bets (for West Ham, Newcastle and Aston Villa) cashed for a 192% profit.

Be aware that all fixtures will be congested for Rounds 13-17.

Happy Holidays and let’s red card COVID,

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 14
 

Typical for a congested round, there were five draws in Round 13. For Rounds 10, 11 and 12, 8 of 9 value best cashed by staying away from congested fixtures. Had anyone taken the 5 value bets for congested Round 13, all 5 would have been lost.

Remember that Rounds 15-17 are congested for all matches.

Cheers,

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 15
 

Here is congested Round 15. When we have one that isn't congested, it will seem odd.

Much more important is for me to wish all of you the best of health and a wonderful and Merry Christmas. Also Joyeaux Noel, Feliz Navidad, God Jul, Mele Kalikmaka, Happy Holidays and whatever other version you prefer.

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 16
 

Don't blink: Round 16 starts one day after Round 15. If you didn't already know we had congested fixtures during Round 15, the 5 draws were a big hint. Also, had you booked value bets for the congested matches, you would have lost all 5, 4 dues to draws.

Enjoy watching. There will be another round right after this one, from 1-4 January.

Happy Almost new Year,

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 17
 

We are watching really tired teams trying to cope with congested fixtures week after week. Half the matches have been drawn for each of the last three rounds. As was true of Round 15, had anyone taken the three value bets in Round 16, you would have lost two of them due to draws. The good news was that my favourites won all four matches that were not drawn.

The EPL has split Round 18 in half. One half will follow Round 17. Then we will have Round 19, followed by the second half of Round 18. All fixtures will be congested.

More importantly, have a great Happy New Years as we bid good riddance to 2020.

Ray Stefani

EPL: First half of Round 18 plus one makeup match
 

In order to start making up postponed matches, we will next have half of Round 18 plus the first postponed match, then Round 19, followed by the other half of Round 18 plus the second postponed match.

There are four other postponed matches (so far) that will eventually need to be made up.

The teams in the six matches I am sending will all have congested fixtures.

Happy not 2020,

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 19
 

One Round 19 match has been postponed, leaving 9 matches. After Round 19, we will have the second half of Round 18 plus one postponed match for a total of six. Each round will be congested due to EPL scheduling through Round 23. Although current EPL scheduling by itself will not create congested fixtures for Rounds 24 and 25, cup matches will be back in full swing involving many EPL teams. I will let you know which matches of Rounds 24 and 25 are congested.

So far, 5 postponed matches are to be made up and there will probably be more postponements as we move along.

As a "word to the wise", value bets on non-congested matches have returned 92% profit on turnover, while value bets on the congested matches would have resulted in a loss of 28%.

Good luck and good health to all.

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 18 (second half plus a makeup match)
 

Now that we finished Round 19, the EPL is scheduling the second half of what was originally going to be Round 18 plus a makeup match. After this comes what was originally going to be Round 20, which will probably have some changes due to makeup games and any COVID problems. Feel confused? That’s because it’s 2021. If something looks normal, you should be suspicious.

EPL Round 20
 

On one hand, five of my six favourites won. On the other hand, the one that lost was the most unlikely in a long time: Liverpool lost at home to Burnley, whose supporters (if any) cashed 16.00 decimal odds. That loss is understandable actually: Liverpool has to play at Man U in the FA Cup before the midweek EPL Round 20 matches. Gotta prioritize.

Seven teams have cup matches before the next mid-week EPL matches. I am tired just thinking about it.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani