EPL Round 12
 

In spite of this being the outrageous 2020, my favourites won all 8 matches in Round 11 that were not drawn. Excluding congested fixtures, value bets were cashed by supporters of Southampton and Crystal Palace. A value bet on Everton was lost on a draw. So, we had a 93% profit on turnover.

For Round 12. The same seven teams as in Round 11 have congested fixtures.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 13
 

I mentioned that 7 EPL teams have had congested fixtures due to cup competitions. Only Man U was eliminated. The other 6 not only advanced to the knock-out phase; but all of the 6 finished at the top of their groups. Chelsea, Liverpool and Man City advanced in the Champions League while Arsenal, Leicester and Tottenham advanced in the Europa League. Of course, all 7 very tired teams ran into weekend fixture issues. Man U and Man City went through the motions for a 0-0 draw. The other five, all favourites, lost 2, drew 2 and only won once. That’s typical for congested fixtures.

Predictions for the first weeks of this season were dismal as teams struggled to get back into playing shape and learned to play without fans. I mentioned that I then compensated for some hugely unexplainable match upsets by top teams. Predictions improved. Beginning with Round 10, the system started using numbers from this season, such as the fact that there is no home advantage. There was an immediate improvement. By not considering congested fixtures, in Round 10, all three value bets cashed for a 195% profit. In Round 11, 2 of 3 value bets cashed for a 93% profit. In Round 12, all 3 value bets (for West Ham, Newcastle and Aston Villa) cashed for a 192% profit.

Be aware that all fixtures will be congested for Rounds 13-17.

Happy Holidays and let’s red card COVID,

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 14
 

Typical for a congested round, there were five draws in Round 13. For Rounds 10, 11 and 12, 8 of 9 value best cashed by staying away from congested fixtures. Had anyone taken the 5 value bets for congested Round 13, all 5 would have been lost.

Remember that Rounds 15-17 are congested for all matches.

Cheers,

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 15
 

Here is congested Round 15. When we have one that isn't congested, it will seem odd.

Much more important is for me to wish all of you the best of health and a wonderful and Merry Christmas. Also Joyeaux Noel, Feliz Navidad, God Jul, Mele Kalikmaka, Happy Holidays and whatever other version you prefer.

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 16
 

Don't blink: Round 16 starts one day after Round 15. If you didn't already know we had congested fixtures during Round 15, the 5 draws were a big hint. Also, had you booked value bets for the congested matches, you would have lost all 5, 4 dues to draws.

Enjoy watching. There will be another round right after this one, from 1-4 January.

Happy Almost new Year,

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 17
 

We are watching really tired teams trying to cope with congested fixtures week after week. Half the matches have been drawn for each of the last three rounds. As was true of Round 15, had anyone taken the three value bets in Round 16, you would have lost two of them due to draws. The good news was that my favourites won all four matches that were not drawn.

The EPL has split Round 18 in half. One half will follow Round 17. Then we will have Round 19, followed by the second half of Round 18. All fixtures will be congested.

More importantly, have a great Happy New Years as we bid good riddance to 2020.

Ray Stefani

EPL: First half of Round 18 plus one makeup match
 

In order to start making up postponed matches, we will next have half of Round 18 plus the first postponed match, then Round 19, followed by the other half of Round 18 plus the second postponed match.

There are four other postponed matches (so far) that will eventually need to be made up.

The teams in the six matches I am sending will all have congested fixtures.

Happy not 2020,

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 19
 

One Round 19 match has been postponed, leaving 9 matches. After Round 19, we will have the second half of Round 18 plus one postponed match for a total of six. Each round will be congested due to EPL scheduling through Round 23. Although current EPL scheduling by itself will not create congested fixtures for Rounds 24 and 25, cup matches will be back in full swing involving many EPL teams. I will let you know which matches of Rounds 24 and 25 are congested.

So far, 5 postponed matches are to be made up and there will probably be more postponements as we move along.

As a "word to the wise", value bets on non-congested matches have returned 92% profit on turnover, while value bets on the congested matches would have resulted in a loss of 28%.

Good luck and good health to all.

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 18 (second half plus a makeup match)
 

Now that we finished Round 19, the EPL is scheduling the second half of what was originally going to be Round 18 plus a makeup match. After this comes what was originally going to be Round 20, which will probably have some changes due to makeup games and any COVID problems. Feel confused? That’s because it’s 2021. If something looks normal, you should be suspicious.

EPL Round 20
 

On one hand, five of my six favourites won. On the other hand, the one that lost was the most unlikely in a long time: Liverpool lost at home to Burnley, whose supporters (if any) cashed 16.00 decimal odds. That loss is understandable actually: Liverpool has to play at Man U in the FA Cup before the midweek EPL Round 20 matches. Gotta prioritize.

Seven teams have cup matches before the next mid-week EPL matches. I am tired just thinking about it.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani