"they still ended up winning the game and that's all that matters."

Surprised you said that. Winning isn't what matter. When team A wins at $1.27 is that all that matters?

If winning was all that matters, then betting on every side that was more likely to win would be profitable, but it's not. Winning isn't all that matters at all. Value or Advantage is what matters.

"I can't believe you think Australia were value when they simply don't win in South Africa!!!"

Again, the flaw of "statistical certainties".