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Originally Posted by Bhagwan
Hi Duritz,
You mentioned the commodity prices may fall.
The only way they will fall is 4 main things over the next 2 years is.
1)The new emerging country , China suddenly stops expanding (unlikley)
2) America lowers their consumption for stuff for things to run (unlikley)
e.g. they use 40% of the world oil resources just to run around in circles.
Their society revolves around consumables.
3)That there is an explosion of new mining companies cropping up on the seen all up & running , all at the same time, selling stuff at a lower price (wont happen over next few years because it takes a long time to get just one of those things operational let alone profitable.)
4)The large companies stop buying up their competitors (Large companies have been doing this over the last year or so e.g. the largest gold producer now controls 40% of the world market. BHP have done similar things.
So if the few large companies control most of the production ,that could also mean they contol supply & if one controls supply , one controls the price to be paid. [Snip] Cheers.
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Bagman,
Well you have a few holes there I think. No 3 is what is happening right now. Major competition is coming on tap now. The infrastructure they needed is what has given us this big head start. We will not maintain the prices we have been getting for commodities.
There's one rogue element you have left out. This bird Flu that is racing across the world. If it goes human to human [not if but when], the world economy will stop overnight. There will be more chaos in the west than the east. The west is almost totally reliant on distribution of everything from our main city ports
and produce markets.
Delivery and distribution of everything will grind to a halt. We do not have 'Surge' capacity to deal with a major crisis. That was clearly demonstrated by the aftermath of 'Katrina'. Think biological crisis. Any volunteers to distribute food?
Think of a 'Katrina' in every western city and town happening all at once !!
Think Paynesville/Bainsdale, we have enough food here to last a week and then what? Think thousands of towns just like ours. Think no electricity [very quickly] and then no water supply. Think PANIC everywhere and no food.
We are a pared down society of 'just in time' economic driven supply. There will be nothing coming into our ports and no one to distribute it if there where. We will be in a starvation situation in the west almost immediately, not the east [everything they need is local].
Forget hospitals they are already full and will be in chaos within 24 hrs. Kill rate might hit 50% worldwide. Economy? What economy? :-)
Below is a white washed simple version of what to do [you know, 'children, we get under our desks when the atomic bomb falls' veriety]. still worthwhile. The link to the 'heavy' stuff I'll leave out.
http://www.survivetheflu.com/food.html