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Old 27th April 2012, 05:00 PM
mattio mattio is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mancunian
Yes - R and S do this for you ie the API in the Race Header is the average of the API of the runners in that race.

Funnily enough I've just been checking a few things in this area - and discovered that in the lower class races quite a few winners are coming from horses that have a greater API than the race average API, but most of the races contain 4 or 5 qualifiers, but a couple of good priced winners had cropped up.

I've already looked at todays races using the following rules
1. Races must have 7 or more starters
2. Eliminate races that have any first starters.
3. Eliminate races that have average API 2.00 or greater

Here is a list of the top 4 contenders with API above the race average :
Geel - r7 / 9.10.2.5.
Geel - r8/ 9.2.1.10.
Ipsw - r3/ 6.1.2.7.
Ipsw - r4/ 8.6.2.1.
Ipsw - r5/ 2.1.9.8.
Ipsw - r6/ 1.2.5.12.
Ipsw - r7/ 6.7.4.11
Canb - r4/ 8.1.9.
Canb - r6/ 6.4.
Canb - r7/ 3.7.1.5.
Canb - r8/ 2.3.8.
PtMq - r3/ 1.5.2
PtMq - r4/ 4.5.2.3.
PtMq - r6/ 1.3.5.4.
PtMq - r7/ 4.8.6.3.
PtMq - r8/ 1.3.6.2.
To me Friday is usually a bad day for picking winners (except for MValley).
but this is potential for "fun betting", with plenty of action on weaker class racing. Anyhow see how it goes today......
cheers...........Mancunian
Hi Mancunian,

Not trying to put down your methodology but only betting races where the average API is less than 2 is a quick way to the poor house in my opinion. These are going to be mostly maidens with first starters (which goes against one of your rules) and very low class benchmark races, all of which make poor betting options.

Focus on the best horses in the best quality races and you will do much better with less opportunity for some donkey beating your selection as it invariably will in weaker class races.

Cheers,

Matt.
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