I was curious what would happen when I posted fair odds for the 40 group-phase matches of the Rugby World Cup before game 1, using the World Rugby Ratings and their method of getting the probability of winning. After I posted, I looked at the then bookie odds posted for all 40 matches. I only found 6 value bets, one of which got cancelled by the typhoon. Of the remaining 5, 3 cashed for a 63% profit on turnover. The 3 profitable matches were when Japan beat Scotland, France beat Argentine and Wales beat Australia. The losses were when South Africa lost to New Zealand and the USA lost to Tonga.

I just took the updated ratings posted by World Rugby. Here are what the fair odds would be, using the World Rugby Ratings and adding 3 points to Japan’s rating for the World Rugby home advantage.

England 1.37 versus Australia 3.71
New Zealand 1.33 versus Ireland 4.04
Wales 1.14 versus France 7.97
South Africa 1.87 versus Japan 2.14

Good luck,

Ray Stefani