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  #21  
Old 29th October 2021, 12:48 AM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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Gee, it's nice to have money. My top 8 picks all automatically come in under my salary cap.

Tofane (c)
I'm Thunderstruck
Masked Crusader
Extreme Warrior
Mr Brightside
Forgot You
Gunstock
Oxley Road

Only one race with two runners: the Victoria Derby with Forgot You and Gunstock.

Really unsure about Oxley Road... There's a tiny, tiny difference between it and In The Congo. The former is shorter and in a smaller field but the latter is in a Group 1 and can score an extra 8 points. It's that close that another database may have it going the other way. I think I'd prefer In The Congo, but I'm feeling a compulsion to continue the experiment and just do what the computer says. Hopefully it'll be a clearer resolution with Saturday's odds; if I get a chance to have a look.

There appears to be a clear Top 5 with the jockeys:
Hugh Bowman
James McDonald
Nash Rawiller
Tommy Berry
Craig Williams

...and the man left behind in Sydney to be the clear choice among them.
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  #22  
Old 30th October 2021, 10:56 AM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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One change: The odds for Think It Over have come in and is now a better prospect than Masked Crusader. Bit of a double coinflip happening between Gunstock, Forgot You, Hitotsu, and In The Congo right now. Gunstock is at $5 the next two are $5.50 and In The Congo at $6. So Gunstock is in as is Forgot You because I'll probably regret it more if I take them out and they subsequently win.

Estimate (prior to captain and jockey points) is 171. Best of luck to our league!
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  #23  
Old 31st October 2021, 12:05 AM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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Yikes... Not a great day. Only scored 147 - with captain and jockey points - which was way below estimates. I've dropped over 500 places down the rankings and am now in 2530th. Did add an extra $50k to my salary cap though.

Next round is Melbourne Cup Day, so hopefully a couple thousand people ahead of me forget that Supercoach racing is on and I can make some ground up.
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  #24  
Old 31st October 2021, 03:11 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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*shhh* This definitely isn't regarding racing this Tuesday. Stop even thinking about Supercoach until the weekend. Supercoach is for weekends only, right? Right.... Pleaseletmefinishhigherintherankings.

Incentivise (c)
Promise Of Success
Spanish Mission
Twilight Payment
April Rain
Verry Elleegant
Renosu
Brereton
Jockey: James McDonald

I'll have four going around in the Melbourne Cup and two in each of the other group races.

Renosu and Brereton are just shaded by Profiteer and Entaar in the Race 6 Handicap as point-scoring prospects, but the latter pairing wouldn't fit under my salary cap.

I had the Top 5 jockeys as:
James McDonald
Craig Williams
Kerrin McEvoy
Jye McNeil
Damien Oliver

My estimate - which likely won't be very accurate this week, as there's not a whole lot of 24-horse races held to get good figures - says that I could be getting just under 132 points (I couldn't be bothered doing some Monte Carlo simulations but, obviously, having multiple runners in races will knock down the total utility scores down a tad).
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  #25  
Old 3rd November 2021, 12:12 AM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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I had a total of 180, which put me around the 1300th mark for the week. I poured water on my estimate but it was pretty close to my pre-Captain and pre-jockey point score: just 8pts short. I was a bit unlucky with scratchings though: my jockey missed out on a couple of rides and I didn't get a chance to wipe Twilight Payment's zero score when its (supercoach) stablemate was a DNR.

In the overall rankings, I climbed up over 1100 spots to be in 1348th, 182 points behind the leader: so I just need to squeeze in an extra round somehow to be of any chance. My salary cap has gone up another $50k, but I seemed to have had plenty the last couple of rounds (helped by Incentivise being such a bargain).

Next round is Thursday and I hope everyone else forgets.
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  #26  
Old 4th November 2021, 12:35 AM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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What a weird round... Only the one venue and only the one Group 1 race, with the rest of the program comprising of two Group 3s with huge fields and the remainder being Listed/Handicaps. There are 5 runners in the Group 1 that are less than $10 and even when they're tripping each other up, they still appear to be better prospects than any of those in the other races. The $5.50 favourites in the Group 3s - as part of 16-horse fields - have a utility score bested by the $2.40-$3.50 favourites in a 7-horse Handicap race.

The only thing giving me pause about which Listed/Handicap favourites to fill the stable with, is that there's a $2 favourite in a 16-horse race - and that seems to be pretty rare; my records don't have enough data to work out its place probabilities accurately. I'll go with a bit of judgement that it seems like it should score better than a $3.50 second favourite in a 7-horse field. Thinking positively, at least.

Willowy (c)
Elusive Express
Daisies
Biscayne Bay
Glint Of Hope
Sirileo Miss
Malkovich
Espiona
Jockey: James McDonald

Just got a lazy 1.2 million dollars left over....
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  #27  
Old 4th November 2021, 09:28 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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Now we're cooking! I think partly due to failing interest from others and partly because what seemed to be the right tactics seemed a little contrary to common sense, I've done alright this week. 720th for the round and I've leapt up over 500 spots in the overall to be in 824th.

It was a bit of a tight leaderboard with my score of 186 points just 30 shy of the top mark. The difference was them selecting what were my next two highest picks outside of my stable; they just happened to do better than the ones I had. I think using my mechanical method to get a starting stable and then tweaking it slightly to personal preference is likely the way to go in subsequent years. I know I would have preferred Floating Artist in the Cup, for example, over Twilight Payment. Would likely just as often not work, but at least your stable is initially anchored from a sensible point.

I estimated 116 before Captain and jockey points and got 138. Picking the sole Group 1 race winner was the difference. My salary cap went up another $50k as a result.

This Saturday is the final round, so hopefully will finish with a good effort.
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  #28  
Old 5th November 2021, 08:10 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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I was enjoying just being able to include any runner and not worry about cost. That's certainly not the case this week! Nature Strip and Zaaki are definites - and that's a fair hunk of the salary cap gone right there! I checked behind the sofa cushions and sadly couldn't find another $250k...

I'm trying an old trick of picking a cheapie to take the reserve spot so I can maximise the value of the rest of my stable. Unfortunately there are no cheapies this round so I'm forced to pick a guaranteed loser from among those not participating. I figure that it's the last round, so it's the time to play fast and loose. I picked Glint Of Hope @ $50k as - I figure - there is still a glint of hope of me getting a decent score if the rest of the stable perform.

I missed some pretty good candidates but finished up with:
Nature Strip (c)
Zaaki
Colette
Bella Nipotina
Ranch Hand
Lunar Flare
Mimi's Award
nuffie
Jockey:

Warning, Mo'unga, Hungry Heart, Private Eye, Cascadian, Superstorm, Dr Drill, September Run, Nimalee, Wentwood, Splintex, Swats That, Chaillot, and Sound would all be ahead of Mimi's Award (and a few of the others); but: no moneys...

Hopefully there aren't any scratchings tomorrow, or at least it'll be easy to slot replacements in.
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  #29  
Old 6th November 2021, 09:03 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by walkermac
I'm trying an old trick of picking a cheapie to take the reserve spot so I can maximise the value of the rest of my stable.
Why didn't I learn my lesson when I tried this earlier on in the game...? I missed out on another 22pts trying to be clever and I would've finished nearly 350 spots higher up on the leaderboard had I just picked the 8 best horses I could afford. As it was, I ended the comp in 898th (of 35k). That seems higher than just following the bookies' odds should be. So either there are a fair proportion of latecomers in that total; lots of teams that were initially ahead of me subsequently dropped out; or, maximising your stable's value using modelling is hard to replicate manually (presuming that the bulk of the stables ahead of me didn't also use modelling).

The propun league came 21st overall, out of 4000. Yay, us! ...except I don't trust the rankings at all. The top league somehow has an average twice that of the next.

So what have I learnt for next time?

  • Pick your best eight each round; don't get fancy with a nuffie reserve to maximise the potential of the other seven.
  • The stable that won had an extra $250k in their salary cap going into this final round. Had I that money to spend this week I would have finished another 100 spots higher overall. More money to spend is good and it's next to impossible to bridge the gap once you're behind. Perhaps I could incorporate into the model maximising stable value somehow; or perhaps I concentrate on that instead
  • It would perform slightly better if I used the morning odds wherever possible, rather than the opening lines; so I need to make it a bit more automated
  • I need to update my data to get more accurate probabilities
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