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#51
26th October 2021, 12:12 AM
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And then there were 34....
Third acceptances were out today. Giving up on their 2021 Melbourne Cup dreams were:
Here is the current Order of Entry: https://www.racingvictoria.com.au/t...81ddcfdb3d.ashx Sir Lucan is in the #24 spot. 7 horses are yet to pass the first ballot clause, several of them are in Wednesday's Bendigo Cup
If Amade finishes Top 3 in the race then he'll jump up into some place between 19th and 21st. The others will need to earn either a penalty or hope for some dropouts, so Constantinople may instead opt for Saturday's Hotham Stakes (which can give the winner a ballot exemption to the Cup). Tooradin didn't nominate. Forgot You is taking a bit of a different route as a 3yo, going via the Victoria Derby qualifying option. 
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#52
26th October 2021, 12:33 AM
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Here are the results of "the system". Back in my first Melbourne Cup thread I wrote a profile on several contenders, for most I included a form factor angle that I had encountered in my research and how that particular horse fared. After the race was run and done, I tallied up how all the runners scored on each of these form factors and the winner happened to be the only horse with the highest possible score.
For the next year or two the winner was found on the top two "rungs" of the scoring ladder, I believe. The last two renewals it hasn't done as well, most likely because of the pace the races were contested: Vow And Declare won a sit and sprint in 2019 and then last year, the front-running Twilight Payment was allowed to win when none of the other jockeys were brave enough to make a move. If there are any marked changes after the weekend's racing I'll post it again then. Otherwise I'll wait 'til the morning of to account for the odds.
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#53
26th October 2021, 04:39 PM
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Walkermac,
Ive been waiting to see this list. Thanks for putting it together.
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#54
27th October 2021, 02:15 AM
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UB but does the MC have any interest in your type of "investing"?
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#55
28th October 2021, 01:53 PM
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The field's been decimated the last couple of days, starting with some unwelcome results at the Bendigo Cup yesterday:
Away He Goes and Hasta La War have also both dropped out. Leaving 30 hopefuls chasing those 24 spots. Great House is in 24th spot and the final horse to have passed the ballot clause so far is Floating Artist in 25th. They will be leapfrogged by the winner of the Hotham. Win and they're in. The others nominated for it won't make the field even if they place, unless there are 3 or more drop-outs. Nominating for that are:
Forgot You is trying to qualify via the Victoria Derby. He'll jump ahead of Great Horse and Floating Artist, but will in turn be jumped ahead of by the Hotham winner; so will need another to drop out (or get a 1.5kg penalty).
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#56
30th October 2021, 10:51 PM
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Today's Cup nominee results:
Here's "the system" final tally (not withstanding odds movements over the coming days):
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#57
30th October 2021, 11:45 PM
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I've mentioned this Cup System over the last few years and it's picked a couple (though missed last renewal). It's "Aspro's Melbourne Cup System", presumably soon to be posted by Racing & Sports:
Rule 1 - List any Cup acceptor placed in either the Caulfield Cup Incentivise, Persan Rule 2 - List any Cup acceptor placed 2nd, 3rd or 4th in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup Floating Artist, Pondus Rule 3 - List any acceptor who was placed 1-2-3 in the Melbourne Cup at their last cup run Twilight Payment Rule 4 - List the Lexus Stakes winner Great House Rule 5 - Delete any horse whose last run in the Melbourne Cup was an unplaced run. Goodbye: Persan Rule 6 - Delete any horse who is aged 3yo or 7yo or older. Goodbye: Twilight Payment So per this system, the winner comes from: Incentivise, Floating Artist, Pondus and Great House. Note also that it doesn't account for debuting foreign runners, which was considered a bit of a negative thing for a while, but is well and truly not as great an issue now. So perhaps nowadays Aspro would throw Spanish Mission and Sir Lucan into consideration also. Interesting that 4 of these 6 candidates are on the top two rungs of "the system" ladder (and that only one of them is under $21 - while also being the only one in the field to have not won a black type race). In any case, perhaps Floating Artist, Pondus, Great House and Sir Lucan are worth further consideration. Grand Promenade is on the top rung and misses out but I'm not too fussed to be honest. Back in 2018 I developed a theory that the Bart Cummings winner wouldn't finish top 5 unless the field in that race ran a sub-36s final 600m (http://www.ozmium.com.au/forums/sho...69&postcount=50). I think it was a historical indicator that the media were peddling at the time. Avilius had just won it in 36.27s and I predicted he'd finish worse than 5th, despite opening at $13 on the day. He came in 22nd. Surprise Baby won it in 2019 with a 35.18s last sectional and finished in 5th. Persan won it in 2020 with a 34.77s last sectional and also finished in 5th. Grand Promenade ran it in 37.58s. Some allowance perhaps for it being a Soft 5, but that's a fair deal slower.
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#58
31st October 2021, 12:13 AM
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Here's the average distance each barrier travels (beyond the shortest distance travelled by a runner that year):
 That's the past four seasons of data (since they started wearing transponders). I posted the below in the 2018 thread regarding barriers and it seemed to work out somewhat the following two years as well: Since 2000: First <=B15: 83.33% >B15: 16.67% Top 2 <=B15: 83.33% >B15: 16.67% Top 3 <=B15: 81.48% >B15: 18.52% Top 4 <=B15: 81.94% >B15: 18.06% Were it random chance, going by the average field size over the past 18 editions (excluding those who didn't complete the race), it should be: <=B15: 66.17% >B15: 33.83% 5th position is where the outer barrier's results start to catch up to expectation. For those finishing exactly 5th, it's 50-50 whether they were drawn outside barrier 15 these past 18 years. 5th-7th: those in outside barriers are over-represented <=B15: 55.46% >B15: 44.44% 8th-14th: it seems to swing back <=B15: 72.22% >B15: 27.88% remainder: and back again <=B15: 56.41% >B15: 43.52% Does it go in the placings: good inside horses over-represented, then good outside horses over-represented, then dodgy inside horses over-represented, then dodgy outside horses over-represented? What kind of outside-drawn horses overcome their misfortune and finish top-4? The 3 winners within the sample were <= 52kg. 11 of the 13 top-4 finishers were also <= $21 despite their draw. Of the 140 finishers drawn outside barrier 15, the <= $21 rule eliminates 99 candidates and misses 1 second and 1 third (Jakkalberry and Red Cadeaux). Weight <= 54kg elimates a further 12 for no further top-4 misses. The above might help with some borderline First-4 selections after the barrier draw... It also doesn't recommend Incentivise or Verry Elleegant. Grand Promenade is the only starter in barrier 15 or wider who satisfies the above for a Top 4 finish at this stage - and I ruled him out last post! (NB - Sir Lucan may also satisfy the conditions if his odds come in from $23 to $21).
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#59
31st October 2021, 12:47 PM
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Quote:
It will have a bet on some horses but its just 1 race. There will be a lot of dumb money so it can be a profitable race though.
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#60
31st October 2021, 12:54 PM
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the barrier draw has really changed my thoughts on the race so really happy to see your barrier stats post as it confirms what I was thinking.
Barriers matter in a race with 24 horses especially when you get up past the 15+ barrier. I think I would be looking at the horses in the top 3 levels of your ratings (7-9 points) as the winner is mor than likely to come from there. Pondus seems to be underrated by the public so he would be my early thought for some value.
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