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  #111  
Old 30th September 2019, 06:00 AM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by evajb001
The second half of the year was especially profitable for me and i'm already looking forward to next season. In the space of two seasons i've been able to make about 2x my original bankroll. Lets hope it continues and I can find some other avenues to profit in the meantime.


Very happy to hear this.

Can I suggest an alternative for the summer for you to look into. If I remember right you said NBA was something on your hit list.

NBA prices (actually most American sports) are so highly analysed that finding an edge doesn't last very long. But I have found a good alternative you might want to look at.

Look at the 50/50 (also known as double up) fantasy sports games. You will do well if you can do even simple analysis.

Think of it this way, do you want to be going up against the right price with at most a very small edge, or beat 50% of average/poor players.

If you do go down this route, then let me know how you go.
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  #112  
Old 30th September 2019, 11:33 AM
evajb001 evajb001 is offline
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Hey UB,

With approaching the NBA I plan to only be betting on player prop markets this season - unfortunately these markets aren't offered with betfair so if I have any level of reasonable success that could pose an issue in the future, but at least for now it could potentially help build my bankroll. Typically (as you likely know) the prop markets are a lot lot less efficient - as you've said the h2h and line markets are essentially bet on globally by many people much smarter than myself with more efficient means of analyzing the game. Thus there is very little chance of any margin or edge to be made on these markets.

Essentially with what i'll be doing for the prop betting is utilizing fantasy data from the US to make prop bets. I've got data for the last two seasons on approx 20,000 markets which shows profit so i have reasonably expectations of some profit. The good thing about this fantasy data is because betting is only just now becoming legalized in the US, they've only been typically using these fantasy estimate for fantasy games and not for betting which I think means there is some edge there I can exploit at least in the near term.

I hadn't given much thought to actually using them for the fantasy side myself as well. There's at least one australian fantasy/drafting website i'm aware of to make money on, not sure if there are others. I used them a couple of years ago playing around with AFL stuff and still get promo texts from them occasionally so might look into it.

I assume for a 50/50 market its almost like betting on a 1.90 line, i.e. 50% win, 50% lose and the draft/fantasy website take a cut from the winning side before payouts. As you say, if I can beat 50% of people around 55% of the time then I should be able to make some profit and its possible a good portion of those playing are 'dumb' money - i'd just need to stick at it and let variance of the dumb money take care of itself. If i can use that US fantasy data to my advantage as well then could be some potential there. Plus there's no chance of getting banned/reduced because you're simply playing against other people.

I'll take a look into it and report back. Things would be so much easier with the NBA if their start times were mid afternoon for all games instead of the morning too!
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