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  #11  
Old 27th April 2021, 10:40 PM
Shaun Shaun is offline
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I don't use BA Mark but and pretty experienced with Gruss and spreadsheets, i will send you an email and may be able to put something together for you, i see they have a 14 day free trial so i could get the feel for it.
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  #12  
Old 27th April 2021, 10:49 PM
Shaun Shaun is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by evajb001
Hi All,

I've been checking the forums infrequently lately and as i'm sure many of you have noticed there isn't a whole lot of material being added - or not to the extent that there used to be.

Was just curious who is still around and how are your punting experiences going? A couple of the main people i've interacted within previously are Uselessbettor and Shaun, so i'm not sure if you lads are still around but anyone else is welcome to reply too.

I'm still just going day by day, week by week recording data and trialing things but still yet to find anything I can follow in a simple manner for horse racing. I have no doubt that understanding the data and the area's value are likely to exist have helped shape my betting to be more profitable but its still just from a recreational point of view. There's no system for me to follow yet that I can reliably follow knowing that in 3 months time there's a solid chance ill have some profit.

Which leads me to the other side of the coin, sport punting. Me and a mate have been following NBA prop bets for two full seasons now and made substantial profit from a units point of view. However there's no room to expand the outlay side of things because then you get limited or banned. So I continue to plod along with small stakes making a tidy profit each season as some side money.

For AFL I've finally read my second book since graduating from uni 10 years ago haha and its helped shape my models and approach to betting it. There's some prop betting as well with AFL that i'm trialing for the first time this season and finding success with but once again because its such a soft market its easier to find the profit, but hard to increase stakes without being banned or limited.

Finally there's NRL which I have next to no knowledge in myself, but my mate who does the NBA with has a model and follows the sport so he passes his picks through which I follow.

There's definitely some sports and soft underlying markets out there to make profit on, its just not as sustainable or life changing because you are limited as to how much you can increase staking or fly under the radar. Racing has been by far the most difficult for me to find something to follow consistently.

Anyhow thats turned into a long post. Anyone else got something to add?


I always say the key to success is adapting, i spend time on that other forum but have to say is mostly full of sheep, nothing much to learn over there and anything that can be taught falls mostly on deaf ears.
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"If they need you , they will soon find out."
"If you need them , you will soon find out."
--moeee
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  #13  
Old 7th May 2021, 07:37 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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evajb, shaun, Mark, partypooper, entropy,

Great to see you guys are all still around.

As far as how I am going on the punting game, its pretty much me just plodding away at it as usual.

I've reduced my turnover to keep the swings to more of my liking. Where I was doing over 400 million per year I have scaled it back and I am doing around 60 Million a year. The profits are less but Ive also reduced my volatility significantly. I only bet a small number of my models now. I still have around 900+ models across various sports which show long term profits. If I bet them all I would still be turning over more than 400 million per year.

This year (Jan-Apr) has been ok without anything to get excited about or to be disapppointed in. its been steady which is what I was aiming for. I am sitting at 40K profit (around 10K profit a month). Largest drawdown has been $8K. I have my personal tax ruling lodged so that 10K a month is tax free

Im glad to hear everyone is still going at it.

There are lots of profitable angles out there. Keep looking each day and you will find them if you have enough data. I find them all the time, but they are generally too up/down for my risk profile. The trick isnt finding profitable angles, its finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs.

I tend to frequent the slack channels now and less on forums. Ill be back here more around Melb Cup and hoping we have a thread again this year to help us get the winner..
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  #14  
Old 8th May 2021, 04:30 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by theoldguy
but we still have the archives from day 1
Hmmm.

Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
Ill be back here more around Melb Cup and hoping we have a thread again this year to help us get the winner..
I'll post one up shortly, in case people feel I have some kind of ownership over Melbourne Cup threads; the Andrew Ramsden is on next week after all. I can't promise my input will be as in-depth as in previous years; my interest in racing is fluctuating a bit at present.


On that - and in answer to the thread query - I still check in here most days but don't feel inspired or engaged enough to contribute much. My own analysis and betting goes in fits and starts, either kicked off by a Sportz tipping comp or via my own boredom - and usually is finished off for a while by a losing run!
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  #15  
Old 10th May 2021, 11:31 AM
evajb001 evajb001 is offline
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Sorry guys I should have responded a bit earlier, great to hear the majority of us are still going at it even if we frequent the forums less.

Bit unfortunate there's not really any 'ideas' threads or vigorous discussion anymore as they used to be great to partake in and read over again and again.

I still feel like you're the pinnacle UB of what i'd one day love to achieve. Don't think i've got the coding knowledge or enough motivation to learn it either, but if I could get even 5 or 10% of the way to what you produce i'd be happy.

Finding pockets of profit I don't think is the hard part, but finding those pockets on a regular (daily/weekly) basis AND being able to scale them - thats the key. Not much point having a AFL player disposal model thats profitable betting with BFAIR when the market is pretty illiquid as it stands currently.

I really wish more people were aware of how much better their odds could be when compared to the corporates so more money flowed through it. Updating their web layout would go a long way to helping that I feel.
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  #16  
Old 11th May 2021, 01:05 PM
partypooper partypooper is offline
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I also haven't logged in for quite some time, but still check it out almost everyday. Me also still plodding along making a small % with some old staples, and of course always working on new projects, glad to hear some of the old faces still around.
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