UB February Thread
Well we are in February so thought I would get this thread up and ready to go.
As you would have read in the January thread I only teased out a small profit of $2837.
Last Years Result
Looking back at last years results that puts me a bit behind where I want to be. But by the end of Feb last year I had only cleared a profit of $10287.
This Months Target
My aim for the end of this month is to be somewhere in the vicinity of $20K-$30K for the year. I am aiming for $500 a day this year so I need to be at $25K by the end of Feb. For those interested my result last year was over $400 a day and that is why I want to up it to $500 a day this year.
I am currently feeling a touch burned out and have not been able to put in the effort I expect of myself. The main reason for this is because I tend to burn the candles at both ends (up early and to bed late) which is usually ok but we have a new addition to the household which is a small puppy. It likes to interrupt my sleep and where I had solid sleep before it is now broken and I am struggling to get up early and am too tired to work late into the night. I am only doing about 3 hours per day and even my weekend was down with only about 7 hours per day put in. Tiredness leads to a lack of motivation and passion. I find the best solution to this is just put your head down and look at form or do some coding. Eventually the passion and motivation returns but you don't want to slow down just because your not motivated right now.
Yeah i can understand motivation, i spent about a week setting up my auto bet sheet to the point i thought i was happy with it to only feel disappointed.
The distraction of creating a simple pricing sheet for Qtab was good.
what disappointed you about it ? Was it not working how you wanted it to ?
I know i need to get away from excel and more in to sql but that is easier said than done, so i knew after creating it that it won't handle the amount of data it needs to, because i built it in the same workbook as the bet placement program it will eventually slow down, so for now i will use it as a daily log of bets and create a separate workbook to record results to, one that won't need constant price updates.
The other reason is when i had that virus that wiped out 90% of my old workbooks i was struggling to remember old code i had used in the past that work for me, all good now a couple days on a different project was good, today i fixed up most of the issues is was facing.
A quick side story : My daughter came home yesterday and asked do I know C#. They need to learn to program using that language this year at school. She is in year 8. I don't know C# but I expect to learn it quickly (take a weekend) so i can help her out through the year. If a 13 year old can learn to code in C# you can easily learn SQL and databases as they are much easier.
For you to learn SQL you only need to know 4 statements.
SELECT "some columns" FROM "a table" JOIN "another table" WHERE "some filter"
INSERT INTO "a table" VALUES ("the values")
UPDATE "a table" SET "values"
DELETE FROM "a table" WHERE "a filter"
Quoted bits are the only bits you need to change. uppercase are the keywords you need to learn.
That is all there is to it at the basic level and that will do 99% of what you need.
You can write to the database using your Excel workbooks. If your comfortable with VBA and it does what you need then you just need to expand it to store all the data in a database. Your about 80-90% of the way there. Don't give up on it now.
I think i am just being lazy, i will set aside time this week to watch a few youtube videos as i find i understand things visually.
Will also take note of your post.
UB, I feel bad for not responding via email I've been swamped lately with work and so just been switching off at night and not looking at any racing/betting stuff. Totally appreciate your system/email and as you said might be a difficult one to follow given the strike rate but I absolutely appreciate the gesture and will keep it in my back pocket to take into consideration with other systems.
I've been toying with an idea to give me some structure with just a starting point for laying horses. I feel like i've got some good direction on picking horses to lay but can find I maybe overreach throughout a day or get too confident and inevitably hit some winners later in the day that eliminate most my gains.
With the data I record I have some race restrictions like all runners must have 5+ starts etc so I can just concentrate on that part of the market/races. Anyhow what I was thinking is that if I look at how many races I typically record per day I could look at how that fits overall. Having a starting point of a minimum of 1 lay on the day with minimum number of races (Monday) and adjust it from there for typically how many races I record each day. So it would look something like this:
Monday & Tuesday - 1 Lay
Thursday & Friday - 2 Lays
Wednesday & Sunday - 3 Lays
Saturdays - 7 Lays
Would mean I have action each day if I can find an appropriate lay, gives me some structure to work within and not overreach maybe including some lays that aren't maybe as good as my top level ones.
Its not my favored approach but for non-automated selections I think that should be OK. But you need to be recording as much information as possible about why you choose certain selections and why you prioritize some over others. With less selections you need to learn quicker and be smarter than others as you can not rely on the data to tell you the correlations. If you get them wrong you could turn a winning system into a losing system.
February Week 1 results are in.
The first 7 days have been really good but the same thing happened in January before the losses came in. January first 7 days were over 12K. February first 7 days were also over 12K.
Here is the day by day breakdown:
All days were profitable for a total profit of $12,626
For the week I had tried to match a bet or lay on 18,086 selections. I put a total of $10,784,252 of bets/lays into the market at the prices I wanted. Of these $6,874,512 was matched (so just under 1 million per day in turnover). This is a match rate of 63.75% of my requested bets. The biggest reason I don't get 100% matched is that I am looking for certain prices to back a horse or to lay a horse to ensure I keep my edge and the market didn't reach those prices before the start of the market. I also ask for a lot of money on some of the horses and only a subset of it can be matched at the prices I want.
I am happy with the week and I am just short of a new bank high by $242. So with a profitable day today I should shoot past that amount to a new bank high.
On another topic, I have been recently looking at the horse racing model on betfair and it looks to do well in certain types of races. If your looking for a new angle I would suggest looking into it. The link to it is https://www.betfair.com.au/hub/racing-tips/
There is lots of rain interrupting racing this week in Australia so I expect my turnover to drop slightly this coming week.
I will second that about the betfair model, i would like to do some serious study on it, compare winners to the type of races and see what races they do better in, i have seen plenty of top rated winners over 10-1, looking at the selection i feel they take a very scientific approach to selections.
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