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Search: Posts Made By: UselessBettor
Forum: General Topics Yesterday, 06:42 PM
Replies: 12
Views: 210
Posted By UselessBettor
Yes the tools allow you to do what ever you want...

Yes the tools allow you to do what ever you want (I don't use them but I am going by what I have seen of them).
Forum: General Topics Yesterday, 06:41 PM
Replies: 12
Views: 210
Posted By UselessBettor
Ocho, It doesn't work on sports in AUS. Stupid...

Ocho,

It doesn't work on sports in AUS. Stupid legislation.
It does work on races as in play of horse racing is different to in play in sports.
Forum: General Topics 15th July 2018, 05:48 PM
Replies: 12
Views: 210
Posted By UselessBettor
Yep you worked it out :)

Yep you worked it out :)
Forum: General Topics 15th July 2018, 04:01 PM
Replies: 12
Views: 210
Posted By UselessBettor
It doesn't work that way at all. If the team...

It doesn't work that way at all. If the team loses then you win $10 and lose $10 so it is breakeven. You only get the $50 if the team wins.




Yes. But it doesn't work here in Aus with the...
Forum: General Topics 14th July 2018, 06:09 PM
Replies: 12
Views: 210
Posted By UselessBettor
I thought I should explain my example so here it...

I thought I should explain my example so here it is:

If the team loses you lose your Lay bet so -$30 but you win your back bet which returns $40 - 6.67 = $33.33. Your profit is then $33.33 - 30 =...
Forum: General Topics 14th July 2018, 06:06 PM
Replies: 12
Views: 210
Posted By UselessBettor
1. The profit/loss is just about backing and...

1. The profit/loss is just about backing and laying at different sums if your trading. So if you lay a team at $10 before the event (or in play) at the price of $4 (so a liability of $30) and that...
Forum: General Topics 14th July 2018, 11:48 AM
Replies: 32
Views: 1,664
Posted By UselessBettor
Got moving today and got another 3 quality data...

Got moving today and got another 3 quality data points added. These new data points should be interesting and may allow a few new systems to be developed down the line.
Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems 14th July 2018, 10:57 AM
Replies: 12
Views: 946
Posted By UselessBettor
And in the end picking the right races to apply...

And in the end picking the right races to apply the strategy is the key to it.

You can't do this on all races.
Forum: General Topics 13th July 2018, 07:37 PM
Replies: 32
Views: 1,664
Posted By UselessBettor
Been a few days in July now (almost half way) so...

Been a few days in July now (almost half way) so time for an update.

Updated July Monthly position:
1. Made 14.78 units this month.
2. Still reading the same 2nd book.
3. Already conducted a risk...
Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems 13th July 2018, 07:01 PM
Replies: 6
Views: 416
Posted By UselessBettor
"All going" is actually a different...

"All going" is actually a different type of track. Its meant to drain away the water very quickly so that regardless of the water put on it that it will run the same. In reality its not quite...
Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems 11th July 2018, 07:40 PM
Replies: 6
Views: 416
Posted By UselessBettor
Yep you are exactly right. You need to be...

Yep you are exactly right. You need to be recording prices in running and then testing systems against that if you want to bet/lay in running. Its all guesswork and generally is a losing...
Forum: General Topics 7th July 2018, 04:06 PM
Replies: 32
Views: 1,664
Posted By UselessBettor
June Results: Updated Monthly position: 1. Made...

June Results:

Updated Monthly position:
1. Made 37.74 units profit.
2. Already conducted a risk review at the beginning of this month. (COMPLETED)
3. Finished reading 1 book. Reading book 2.
4....
Forum: General Topics 7th July 2018, 03:52 PM
Replies: 4
Views: 302
Posted By UselessBettor
Just had a quick look at my best days in order of...

Just had a quick look at my best days in order of percentage profit:

Tuesday
Thursday
Friday
Sunday
Monday
Saturday
Wednesday
Forum: General Topics 29th June 2018, 06:07 AM
Replies: 32
Views: 1,664
Posted By UselessBettor
blackdog I think we are talking the same thing...

blackdog I think we are talking the same thing but its just a misunderstanding.
Forum: General Topics 28th June 2018, 08:44 PM
Replies: 32
Views: 1,664
Posted By UselessBettor
Interesting you bring that up evajb001 :) ...

Interesting you bring that up evajb001 :) Simple answer is yes I do.

That is also one of the standard tests I use against a system. Commonly known as a chi-test :...
Forum: General Topics 28th June 2018, 04:46 PM
Replies: 32
Views: 1,664
Posted By UselessBettor
Yes ordinal data generally isn't normalised. But...

Yes ordinal data generally isn't normalised. But that doesn't affect impact values. Not sure where you were going with the ordinal data comment ?
Forum: General Topics 28th June 2018, 04:45 PM
Replies: 32
Views: 1,664
Posted By UselessBettor
"An impact value of 1.0 means that the...

"An impact value of 1.0 means that the horses with a particular characteristic won a percentage of their races that was equal to the percentage they were of the total number of runners in the group....
Forum: Horse Race Betting Systems 28th June 2018, 04:40 PM
Replies: 12
Views: 946
Posted By UselessBettor
Have you looked at the races you are losing on...

Have you looked at the races you are losing on and why ? For example, number of runners, odds spread, location, barriers of winners(losers), condition of track, race number, time of day or night,...
Forum: Sports and Gambling 28th June 2018, 04:32 PM
Replies: 96
Views: 6,436
Posted By UselessBettor
You would actually be surprised. Manually...

You would actually be surprised. Manually entering and looking at data gets you way more intimate with it and you notice things. Maybe its an advantage :)
Forum: Sports and Gambling 27th June 2018, 08:16 PM
Replies: 96
Views: 6,436
Posted By UselessBettor
Sounds interesting. I am guessing like me you...

Sounds interesting.

I am guessing like me you run out of time to play with all your ideas. What you have put in there should be able to be made into a generic sort of model that could then be...
Forum: Sports and Gambling 27th June 2018, 06:44 PM
Replies: 96
Views: 6,436
Posted By UselessBettor
I assume you are talking about the betfair...

I assume you are talking about the betfair article ? I read that too.

Tennis can be beaten but out of all the sports I work on I find it the hardest. The margins are very slim. What I think was...
Forum: Sports and Gambling 27th June 2018, 05:42 PM
Replies: 96
Views: 6,436
Posted By UselessBettor
Evajb, My thinking is the more complex a market...

Evajb,


My thinking is the more complex a market is the easiest it is to make a profit. NBA isn't took complex and there is a lot of data available. That makes it hard to find an edge (but they do...
Forum: Sports and Gambling 26th June 2018, 07:02 PM
Replies: 96
Views: 6,436
Posted By UselessBettor
Depending on your bet size at the moment you...

Depending on your bet size at the moment you might be able to tolerate a 23 unit draw down. I can tell you that you will not survive mentally with large bets at a 23 unit draw down.

I would suggest...
Forum: General Topics 26th June 2018, 06:51 PM
Replies: 20
Views: 1,058
Posted By UselessBettor
lol. Well we all know how that has ended as its...

lol. Well we all know how that has ended as its publicly recorded.

I have contacted them again and apparently its still with the VIP team.

I am happy to move money if it makes sense. Obviously...
Forum: General Topics 26th June 2018, 06:38 PM
Replies: 32
Views: 1,664
Posted By UselessBettor
Yes any new piece of information including...

Yes any new piece of information including derived information such as impact values would be a new data point.

So barrier would be a data point and impact value of a barrier would be a second data...
Showing results 1 to 25 of 500

 
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