Email Sent Speedy

I never should have looked at that website Speedy. I layed a 40:1 shot Race 2 Scone based on the jockeys win strike rate. The worst I've ever seen: 1% 484 races for 6 wins!! E Weiszbach just had win No. 7.
RP

You weren't a wiseback in that case, RP.
It's amazing how that can happen. I know that when I tried trading if I chose to let an oustanding lay go in running it seemed to win every time.

Perhaps you should look at it based on the law of averages. If a jockey usually runs at 5% and is running now at 1% then he should be backed not layed as his strike rate will return to 5% longer term.

And the reverse is true lay jockeys which have a much higher strike rate (double) then the longer term (350 races) average.

You should have it now, jb

Well UB, that might be all well and good if she was a "USUAL" jockey, but if after 485 races she has only won 7, then I think you're forever the optimist!
Cheers RP

Despite your loss, RP, R&S would have to be the provider of the best racing stats I have ever seen and it's free. I have found their in running position stats invaluable in giving me an edge over those I am betting against.

If you wish to do this seriously there is a goldmine hiding in the R&S in running stats. Spend a couple of weeks watching races while armed with the stats showing how the leaders and first 4 on pace runners go at the course/ distance you are watching. Take particular note how favourites go when they lead at favourable/ unfavourable CDs. If you can read the ease ( or otherwise ) with which the leader is going by the jock's arm movements then the world is your oyster.
The longest price I have got in running on a leader which won is $33.

Thats still a 2% strike rate. If her last win was 400 races ago then perhaps its coming due eventually. If I was using these stats then I would steer clear of laying her until she had her win and then look if she was above her average and could therefore be layed again.

Now that she's had that win, I think I should be safe Laying any of her mounts for the next 69 races( her average). I agree with Speedy and his opinion of R&S, not that I'm into inplay betting/trading, but just combining Win % of horse, trainer & jockey and it's just that extra edge or reassusrance one needs. You see it all the time top of the polls Jock, Trainer & Horse and you've almost got a certainty to Back in a provincial race. Conversely for the Lay, you'll often see a top trainer with a so-so horse put the low Win % Jock on board probably to give the horse the excercise and Jock the experience. Then a race later same trainer puts the No. 1 Jock on board and you've got a winner.
Have a great day all, RP