For years I have been wanting to come up with a method of selecting horses (system if you like)that will be characterised by the following criteria:
1. Will provide a profit (obviously) in both the short-term (hopefully) and in the long-term (definitely)
2. Will provide selections suitable for the days when I am not otherwise at work.( In my case this means Sat/Sun and Thurs pm)
3. Will provide me with more than just a single selection on any one day; the more the merrier (Otherwise I will get bored)
4. Let's me select the relevant horses from one or more features of Neale's program.
Before I go further, I freely admit the criteria have been determined by simple datamining. Yes, I am aware that what happened yesterday doesn't mean that it will happen today, but i believe that this is no less true of in-depth handicapping (of whatever sort people might choose). Unfortunately I don't have the time to do this anyway, but when I have, in the past, I find I am limited, through time constraints to one or two races (boring!)
My analysis has been bsed on the BR1 factor, and covers some 1000 winners over the period Jan 01-date.
Results obtained are a win SR of 28% with an average return of $5.17 (NSW tote)
One of my problems in the past has been determining the "likelihood of a profit versus the likelihood of going bust, but I have come across a fascinating calculator which I suggest people might care to look at.
The address is:
http://****************************************
I have been monitoring my data with the aid of this, and while I don't know how it works it does seem to have reasonable short-term accuracy, such that for a total of 8 bets (viz tonite I have a 68% chance of making a profit, and 0% chance of going bust). I the longer term (200 bets) the first figure increases to >95% and the chances of busting remain at zero
So, while I don't intend divulging my criteria, I will be posting my selections on each of the 3 days.
My aim, starting with a $1000 bank is to bet 1% of the current bank (WIN ONLY),for a total of 200 bets (or bust- whichever comes sooner). I will be using the NSW TAB at this stage rather than getting into the more esoteric types, ie Betfair, etc
Today's Selections:
BR$1 MOV THURS SYS1: 18/11/2004 MOONEE VALLEY
MR 2 # 5 x461 DON'T BE A DEVIL
MR 3 # 7 x123 TAVETTE
MR 5 # 6 2x45 SUBELLA
MR 6 # 3 647x VALEDICTUM
MR 7 # 7 8x12 ALIANDRA


BR$1 CAN THURS SYS1: 18/11/2004 CANTERBURY
SR 1 # 3 2332 MASTER STRATEGY
SR 4 # 3 12x1 RADETZKY MARCH
SR 5 # 4 2396 THE ARK
SR 6 # 6 7x13 ESCONDIJO
SR 7 # 1 7323 LOOKOUT

So let the battle begin- after all, should it not work out then I haven't lost a squillion

Regards to all

Brian

Oops
I should have said 10 bets tonite with a likelihood of making a profit at around 70%

17:37 BET SR01WN 3 MASTER STRATEGY x 10.00 (FPAY=$22.00) $10.00-
19:27 BET MR02WN 5 DON'T BE A DEVIL x 10.00 $10.00-
19:41 DIV SR01WN 3 MASTER STRATEGY x 10.00 $22.00
20:05 BET MR03WN 7 TAVETTE x 10.00 $10.00-
20:34 BET SR04WN 3 RADETZKY MARCH x 10.00 (FPAY=$16.00) $10.00-
20:54 DIV SR04WN 3 RADETZKY MARCH x 10.00 $16.00
20:55 BET SR05WN 4 THE ARK x 10.00 $10.00-
21:18 BET MR05WN 6 SUBELLA x 10.00 $10.00-
21:41 BET SR06WN 6 ESCONDIJO x 10.00 $10.00-
21:49 BET MR06WN 3 VALEDICTUM x 9.50 $9.50-
22:02 BET SR07WN 1 LOOKOUT x 9.50 $9.50-
22:17 BET MR07WN 7 ALIANDRA x 9.50 (FPAY=$38.95) $9.50-
22:39 DIV MR07WN 7 ALIANDRA x 9.50 $38.95
END OF DATA: BETS = 10 DIVS+REFUNDS = $76.95 SALES = $98.50-
CLOSING BALANCE $978.45

Not an auspicious start (something about Murphy's Law when people start putting their selections on the 'net) Still we weren't far off the money (my rationalisation!). One more win (Lookout) would have left me in front.
Next meeting Saturday
Rosehill
Sandown
Morphettville
Cheers
B

Hi all
Since my first posting I have been reviewing my approach somewhat.My eventual aim was to develop an approach that I could use on an unattended betting module. This is available on another site but I won't mention it here for obvious reasons. That approach is being used by others to arbitrage value selections based on different prices at TABs & bookmaker sites on the 'net. I intend (if my idea works out) to use it with my own prices and price rank order based on NSW TAB prices because I can't possibly compete with the big punters who arbitrage.
So, for today, and subsequently, I will not only be posting my selections but also the required TAB price (min & max) as well as the TAB price Rank order.Bets will be placed at the 30 sec. mark and, at this stage at least, I will only be betting on metrop meetings where the pool size is such that any last minute dramatic changes are less likely.
So, for today:
ROSEHILL:

Race 1: #2 Brillianti
(Bet if 1Fav & price range is $1.30-$5.20.
Bet if 2Fav & price range is $2.90-$5.70.
Bet if 4-6Fav & price range is $5.20-$31.40)

Race 3: #1 Crown Princess
(Bet if 1Fav & price range is $1.30-$5.20.)

Race 5: #9 Our Highlander
(Bet if 1Fav & price range is $1.30-$5.20.
Bet if 2Fav & price range is $2.90-$5.70)

Race 6: #3 Langborghini
(Bet if 1Fav & price range is $1.30-$5.20)

Race 7: #5 Super Dragon
(Bet if 1Fav & price range is $1.30-$5.20.
Bet if 2Fav & price range is $2.90-$5.70)

SANDOWN:

No selections, as there is insufficient data on the revamped Hillside track to provide me with adequate datamining data.

MORPHETTVILLE:

Race 1: #2 Barker Lad
(Bet if 1Fav & price range is $1.30-$4.90)

Race 2: #10 Bella Futura
(Bet if 3+Fav & price range is $4.50-$19.70)

Race 3: #3 Aerated
(Bet if 1Fav & price range is $1.30-$4.90.
Bet if 2Fav & price range is $3.00-$6.70.
Bet if 3+Fav & price range is $4.50-$19.70)

Race 8: #5 She Rules
(Bet if 3+Fav & price range is $4.50-$19.70)

EAGLE FARM:

Race 3: #4 Noble Gaze
(Bet if 2Fav & price range is $2.60-$6.60.
Bet if 3Fav & price range is $3.30-$7.90)

Race 4: #5 Rautai's Warrior
(Bet if 4th-9thFav & price range is $5.90-$22.40)

Race 8: #3 Red Mile
(Bet if 1Fav & price range is $1.80-$4.90.
Bet if 4th-9th Fav & price range is $5.90-$22.40)

Cheers
Brian

Another bl***y hopeless day
I give up

Unless you have better things to do with your time Brian,I suggest you continue doing what you are doing.
Not all good reading material has a happy ending.
An honest approach to betting is much more appealing than the what may be called the Bigmouth approach where some claim to do well after the race has been run.
Whatever you decide,Brian,may luck enter you're realm and keep you in good stead in you're pursuits.
P.S. Cam I just say that when I saw you're mention of a $5.17 return at 28% strike rate,I honestly thought you were dreaming or mistaken.
Can I suggest that with such great positive advantage,you go further back in past results and see if you maintain the profitability.
Sure is a lot of work,but hard work can pay off in the end.
I tried shortcuts to fortune city,but I ended up losing just the same.
Well done for you're effort anyway Brian.
P.P.S.If you are not Brian,apologies for calling you that.My memory is very poor.

Hello Brian,

don't give up just yet.

I have been doing quite a bit of work lately on analysing systems with a view to determining if they are "good" or "bad", and also to determine whether the current short term trend is just a phase or an indicator of much worse....

If you'd like to email me offlist I'll go into further detail for you if you like.

Cheers,
Chris.

__________________
Permanence is an illusion

I would add that any system that does not use the available price of the selection as a criteria,is doomed to failure.
Don't have to be the main,but must definately be the last.
If you can't get a fair price about your selections,let them go.
Bit hard to do on exotics,so don't try here.Only the win or place betting.