Zorro. Hi again! You may have seen/heard #3 just winning race 3 in Adelaide. This was only at about $13,after being over $22 a few minutes earlier. At either price, the odds were underestimating both the horse AND the trainer (K.Sweeney). Since he (Sweeney) already had the FAVOURITE (#1) in this race, why would he (or ANYONE) add another, much longer priced, conveyance to the mix?? By my reading this kind of move should be more "respected" than theoretical notions of "class" or the like. Let the trainer's moves be your guide to the horse's ability!!! Cheers once more
P.S. just as I'm signing off #17 has got 3rd in B4 at around $23 the PLACE. This is another classic. I'm on him (but only to win,alas) as a you'd have to wonder what the MUSWELLBROOK trainer saw that prompted the trip to Brisbane. This is the same trainer who won the Grand Prix last week (at 40s) with Spuruson. Yet another one who SHOULDN'T have been "in it" on the "class ratings"!!!!

punter57,

I LIKE YOUR STYLE,

Look for other reasons other than just form.

Cheers

Thanks Kenchar. After hearing,for the thousandth time that "you can forget studying the form after that shock result!!", I finally took the "flabbergasted" racecallers advice and DID!! When I look at the formguide now, it's only to get a feel for the trainer's tricks and intentions. When I see something "suspicious" I glance at the guide ONLY to confirm or repudiate. This means,for example, if a trainer has two horses in the same race and one is seriously unfancied I will look at this "outsider's" preferred distance range ONLY. If, for instance, today it's 1500m and the horse in question is well-performed at 2400/3200, chances are it is NOT FOR REAL (today). On the other hand, if the distance IS right,well....who cares about current form or "class"?
Before I hear from Fellow Forum Followers (FFFs) that it all depends on the ABILITY of the trainer, in placing his/her horses correctly,let me add this. I saw Curata Storm win (at over $90) in a Group 1 at Rosehill in April 2001 as the stablemate of the $4 favourite (which came 2nd). Since both "the Storm" and Freemason were from J.Hawkes establishment it could NOT have been a case of "the trainer doesn't have a clue".(Does Australia's leading trainer NOT know his stuff?)that sent him out at 90s. Rather it was the punters who blundered, misled by class and ratings etc.
The winner was up 12 grades from a Class1 Hawkesbury win (13 lengths!!) On ratings it was a "no contest" and yet.......!! Hope this gets a few of my FFFs thinking a little further about how slippery "Class" really is. Bye for now.
P.S. Curata Storm never won again, even at 2-1!!!

Hi,
The purpose of one's handicapping is to get to a situation whereas the assigned probs for each entrant and the actual result show the least amount of variance and Once you have done this there is no more amount of work to be done in the handicapping arena, its then a matter of seeing the imbalances within the pools. As you so rightly have pointed out the further you get from the Fav the worse JP goes in assigning the right probabilities, we just take different routes to find this Golden spot

We may have to agree to disagree on some things Mr Woof!! But what about this one; I was at Doomben one time when B. McLachlan had 3 horses (a class 5, I think)in the same race. One was the favourite. I spotted Bruce at the mounting yard and then up with the owners. Anyway, his 20-1 shot got up, and what do you know? It was THOSE owners he was sitting with!!!! It looked like they (trainer and owners) knew in advance which horse was which, BUT WE DIDN'T. The trainers are often giving pretty good clues and signals that something is "on".WE have to know HOW to read these signals. Cheers

Interesting stuff P57!!!
I love to hear the different ways people are beating the system. Absolutely poles apart from the way I choose to work and the more fascinating because of it. I knew Kenchar would be impressed :-).
I wouldn't be so crass as to introduce terms involving three letters and rhyming with snot but when you have these hunches or insights or whatever you might call them how often do they come off and how often do you say "Well, I read that one wrong"? Presumably you get it right often enough to come out ahead.

KV

HI punter

If my memory serves me well, I think you'll find that Tie the Knot was the short priced favourite, with Sky Heights the only other horse in the market.

You may be right, Mark, as I only note my BETS and have to rely on memory for the rest. I thought it was Freemason but, whatever, there definitely WAS another Hawkes runner in the mix. Anyhow, the same type of thing happened, only yesterday, at Morphettville, with a much less celebrated trainer: one who I know nothing about, except that it was HIS $30 winner who brought my "Holiday Monday" to a satisfying conclusion!!. Cheers

Mark/Punter57 - Actually you are both right. Curata Storm & Freemason were both trained by John Hawkes, Curata Storm was 100/1 SP while Freemason was 20/1 SP. The two runners under 10/1 in the betting were Tie The Knot @ 4/7 SP & Sky Heights @ 5/1 SP.