I've manually checked over the past 7 days a Lay system which had according to my reckoning 28 selections for 8 accidents. Using Unitab divvies the liability of the 8 accidents only came to $7.70, and the 20 successes after Betfair's 5% fee comes to 19.00 units, which would give an overall profit of 11.30 units.

The rules are:

1) Unitab 100 pointer.
2) Ran second or third at last start.
3) Last two starts to be a maximum of seven placed-points.
4) Last start placed at equal or better than previous start.
5) Not resuming from a spell.

Only one weeks' racing could easily be a distortion of the long-term results, and as Unitab's ratings are not too inaccurate the method might easily end up as a profitable Back system.

If anyone has a Unitab data base could they have a look at the method?

I also checked at last start winners based on the above system, (I threw out any selection that won its last two starts) but there were only 20 selections. The overall profit was 6.15 units but this system seems dangerous.

Thanks,
Michael.

Out of interest the following are today's selections:

Dombeen R2 no.2 - beaten
sandown R2 no.3 - beaten
Sandown R4 no.1 - beaten
Murray B. R1 no.5 - beaten
Murray B. R3 no.13 - beaten
Murray B. R5 no.3 - beaten

Yet to run
Dombeen R8 no.2 - Dreaming Cash
Gosford R7 no.5 - Steel Blue
Bunbury R4 no.6 - Sahulu

I would put a limit on the price, say $9.00.

Yesterday's nine selections were beaten. I'll give it another go today.

Canterbury R5 no.2 - News Alert
Grafton R1 no.7 - Roublesse
Ballarat R4 no.4 - Scouting
Te rapa R7 no2 - Penetrator
Ipswich R1 no.1 - Dusty's Felt
Ipswich R3 no.7 - Fantastic Four
Pinjarra R4 no.11 - Cyclone Bella
Penola R1 no.4 - Classic Conduct
Penola R3 no.10 - Reaction Ace
Penola R7 no.1 - Sandhill Prince

Hi Michael,
Thanks for sharing those findings.

I like it.


I have run this over the Dogs & Trots as well , with equally strong results.

Amazing how many just don't get up at low prices.

They all look like they should win, but they don't ,even when they are odds on.

Nice piece of research Michael.
Well done.

Cheers.

__________________
Cheers.

Hi, Bhagwan.

Thanks for that. I wasn't sure if the one week's results were indicative of the method. But now that it seems a worthwhile method I might start laying them.

Out of interest today's selections are:

Gold Coast R3 no.10 - Cool Rapids
Gold Coast R6 no.1 - Climate Change
Gold Coast R8 no.2 - Silent Movie
Kembla R5 no.12 - Lunchtimesover
Morphetville R4 no.4 - Count Cheval
Queanbeyan R7 no.10 - Itahi
Toowoomba R4 no.3 - Mother Russia
Toowoomba R5 no.5 - Red White 'n' Blue.