That's my role in life moeee

Here's the purrfect Stable scenario ..... Frisky No More ran on OK for 6th over probs an unsuitable 1300m. The trainer had previously run it over 2000m in Adelaide where it failed miserably. Now, it may be no good at all, but today's run was on an extremely heavy track.

Here's the rub .....

Let's say at it's previous run in adelaide something was amiss that has not been made public, it was running second during the run and tired to run last ..... are there any excuses ..... there may be. Today it runs OK on a Heavy 9 track, conditions which may not suit. So, the optimist in me suggests we might have two runs with two reasonable excuses, one being hidden (Adelaide run).

Quite rightly it should run it's next start over a little more ground and it will be at juicy odds too, as it should be. There wouldn't be a system produced that would have it as a selection at it's next start. The unknown is the Adelaide run, and quite possibly another unknown as to whether it handled the Heavy 9 track at Sandown.

This is straight out of the "Guide to Losing Your Shirt 101"

But at least I've got a couple of half good systems to keep me afloat eh ?!

"There wouldn't be a system produced that would have it as a selection at it's next start."


Sorry Barny. Selected it already (to lay) at its next start. It'll no doubt come up against a couple of genuine, in form winner-types paying juicy odds of $4.00

I will be looking out for Frisky next start to see if any of my selections are up against it.

At least, Barny has the down unders to put its name forward before the event. More power to him.

Star

Will grab a couple of Fastnet Rock horses early spring, preferably from Leon Corsten's stable. I don't mind listing them on here. I'll be backing them, and it'll be a lttle bit of fun to see you dudes drown in my bow wave.

I certainly wont be backing any of my stable less at than $4.00, maybe even less than $5.00 ..... I should have a rule, OK nothing less than $4.50 SP.

I've got my punting sorted .....

got 3 systems, 1) Based on Win S/R, 2) Api and 3) Overdue for a win

And then there's the Stable.

Probs works out at up to 3 bets per week all in. I'll only do Melbourne for the time being ('cept for the Stable of course !), purrfect for me.

Well I tried today to look outside the circle and inside it as well.

I looked at meetings on 2ky that had at least 3 tipsters. I then recorded the return of horses tipped vs horses not tipped and also those tipped in each position.

I only have 7 days data but in that I found a method to monitor. It had a profit of 164 units over 223 bets and was very consistent in returns.

I don't think its as much about looking inside or outside the circle as it is in actually doing the research and working out what the results say.

Take Random Orbit at Ipswich last Sat as a sort of counter example to barny's theory. DS top rated, Unitab equal top rated and top API. It won paying $15.80! And I backed Crosscannons thinking it was the different one.