The problem, of course, is that eventually you reach your run of outs at which point you have to stop, and this gives back all your profits, plus more. The only way a staking plan that chases losses can work is if you NEVER stop betting, and the only way THAT can happen is if you have a virtually limitless bank, and can get set for whatever amount with a bookie, because betting into the totes of course is self defeating.
It looks to me that in your example, your bet size after a loser goes up by 50%. Using that rule, I worked out what kind of money we are talking about if you wanted to bet up to 50 losers. Although that is, of course, very unlikely to come in, it still just might, and you still might lose. In order to last 50 losers, though, your 51st bet would be $1,034,394,551. That's a 1 billion dollar bet, to recoup your initial $1. In order to cover all the losses to that point, as well as place the 1 billion dollar bet, you'd need a bank of 3.1 billion.
So, if you have 3.1 billion dollars spare, and you want to win around $100 a week by chasing your losses, you can risk your 3.1 billion dollars on a loss chasing progressive staking method. Make sure you find a bookie who lets you on, though, for that 1 billion dollar bet.
Oh yeah, and what if that 51st horse lost?
In my sample, the longest run of outs was 18. In that case, your 19th bet would be $2,397, and in order to cover that plus the losses you'd need a bank of $7,180.
Last edited by Grand Armee : 7th January 2008 at 10:32 AM.
|