I often read posts from members enquiring if a particular computer racing
program is any good or alerting punters to dubious programs.

I have been writing racing programs for several years during which time I have
spoken with many punters who have told me how they were conned into buying one
program or another which, to their disappointment and considerable loss, turned
out to be a complete dud.

To new punters in particular the computer racing program tends to be a bit of an
enigma. Can it actually pick winners and make money for the user? If so, why is
the program being offered for sale? Here is a brief description of a basic
racing program and a few pointers which hopefully will help save a first time
buyer paying out thousands of dollars for some hyped up system that is full of
promises and short on delivery.

The most common types of racing programs and the ones referred to here are those
that use real time race prices. This type of program normally consists of three
basic modules -

1. A module that collects real time race prices. Prices may be taken off the
internet, teletext, a datacast service like Ch's 7 Bettordata or simply typed in
by the user. A program that relies on teletext or datacast will require a
decoder, the price of which has to be added to the basic program cost.
2. A module to select runners and calculate bets. This is the all important
module that does the selecting of runner(s) and is often the mysterious part of
the program to some punters. A few program suppliers will not even tell you how
their program selects runners - be wary if you strike this.
3. Finally a module to transfer the bets to the betting agency. This may be via
the internet, direct on-line betting or simply left to the user to phone in the
bets.

The most common bet calculating method found in a program is dutching, whereby
multiple runners in a race are selected to carry bets. If one of the group wins,
a profit is returned to the punter. You would use this on win prices and
sometimes, if you are feeling lucky, on big paying place prices. Bets can be
calculated to return a user predetermined target profit or a total bet amount.

A program will let the user select runners and/or provide a 'system' that makes
the selections for you. Remember here that we are dealing with a type of program
that relies on real time race prices for selecting runners, so there is not too
much mystery as to what it can do. By far the most common 'system' of picking
potential winners is to select those runners that undergo large drops in price -
price shortening. Price differences may be monitored over a period of several
minutes or for a sudden negative swing. There has always been a propensity by
some punters to watch for that last moment price drop just before the close of
bets. The theory being that if there is a significant shortening in any runner
price then there must be some punter who has privileged information, so take
advantage of that persons knowledge. One technique is to monitor the prices from
different TAB's to coordinate price changes or identify any substantial amount
placed on a runner at any one TAB. A program may use a database of information
for support. Some programs concentrate on the exotics using probability formula
to calculate bet amounts for sets of trifectas, quinellas or exactas. There is
probably a whole range of 'systems' for a potential buyer to choose from but
they usually follow the same theme - they relate back to price fluctuations
and/or market favourites.

Unfortunately the price of programs is no sure indication as to whether one
program is better than any other in helping the punter to make a profit. A $5000
program may not be any more useful than a $300 program. In fact I have seen two
programs that do exactly the same thing and produce the same results with a
price tag difference of over $7000.

You cannot purchase a computer racing program that will select runners and
consistently make a profit for you. A program may pick winners but it will also
pick losers so that short term gains are forfeited to long term losses. It is up
to you, the program user, the punter, to make the profits by picking the right
selection(s).

If you intend to buy a racing program ignore those glossy brochures with their
tailored balance sheets, be circumspect about "Investment program", "high
returns" or "high strike rate" and take with a pinch of salt that testimonial
praising the program as a path to future riches.

Be objective when looking at a program, if possible test run the program
yourself, don't rely on the salesman's description of how good it is. Try it
with a few races. Do you think you can make a profit using the program? The
emphasis is on YOU. If you can make a profit with it how long will it take to
win back the price of the program? After all you do not begin making a profit
until the program has been paid for.

Be very wary about any program that locks you into their 'system' selections and
an unchangeable amount of bet, it is very easy for losses to escalate out of
control with bad selections. Make sure you can change the selections if need be
and set your own level of bet.

Treat any racing program as a punting aid or a tool and don't forget if you go
looking for a program that promises the Golden Fleece, you will be the one that
gets fleeced.

Good luck.

Well said Debug

__________________
Cheers.

The real issue in my opinion is the motives of the publications that accept these rip off advertisers, how can I respect the management of the Sportsman or the "Winning Post" when they accept these type of adverts and then have the gaul to tell us they're interested in "the kids"

I think the bottom line is the old advertising $$$

To publications, they look for the almighty dollar and claim not to know anything about the advertiser.

The bottom line rests with your own judgement in these cases.
If they advertise 500% return in two months, or it costs $18,000 just to get started, you know the jig is up!

As far as computer programs go, that was a great posting.
Whatever, computer program you use, the end result are the parameters you give it.
I disagree that no computer system can pick the winners consistantly, it depends on the information the user inputs and how he/she sets up the program.

For example:

I have a spreadsheet set up and all I do is input data and have formulae set up within the cells, based on my own criteria, and give each factor a weight or importance.
The spreadsheet then picks the selections by final assigning of a value.

It's very successful, but ONLY because I give it the correct formulae and parameters.
(All midweek madness selections come from the spreadsheet).

But again, if you look at the program advertised, look to see if you can get a free trial - more often than not, you can set up something similar yourself at no risk!

(I can't give anyone a copy of that sheet because it contains my whole "system" including non statistical factors, but if anyone wants help on something, I'd be happy to oblige).

__________________
Treat your selection and staking methods not with optimism, nor with pessimism, but with realism.

Hi all...i have not been around here for awhile and am glad to be back...with respect to anyone that uses computers to pick winners...it is not the computer that helps you win it is the information it provides....you could give me any selection method and i could turn it into a program or spread sheet....i think more people should get back to basics and stop looking for a quick fix.....learn how to read form and make your own systems please

Computers definitely can HELP you pick winners consistantly - but HELP is the key word here. A computer is a tool and used correctly it can help enormously in the task of sifting through the huge amount of data that we have available these days. At the click of a mouse I can analyse a system over several years of data in a few minutes - to do that manually would take days (if not weeks). Similarly I can check every race in every meeting for possible bets in a minute - again manually that could take many hours.

As Equine Investor said any computer program is only as good as the underlying formulae and parameters. If you have a system that works then by all means computerise it as much as possible and save yourself many hours of work each week but don't buy a system from someone else and expect it to work in the long run.

a great topic and great contributions allround.i tend to go along with shaun.learn to understand form and whats important in the handicapping procedure and you can create your own individual method.whether you want to computerise it or not is up to you.as you all know iuse the computerised wt ratings from the wizard where 90pc of the work has been done for me.ie recent form /form improvement/checks/blocks /wide running/barrier draw etc etc and is summed up by the wt rating score. ijust add my own twists on it.ie .picking bettable races/bettable distances etc. idont think you can do better than use the best in the business wt ratings as a major plank in your own handicapping procedures. a great post and i congratulate all the contributors.

Thank your for your responses to my post.

As I have spoken to many punters over the years who use some type of computer program
to help them along I thought I would just throw in this observation for interest.

Of those punters very few of them seemed to make any consistent ongoing profit. There
is only a very few that I can recall who were doing well and they used a common method of operation.

They would put in the time and do the research, handicapping, databasing, spreadsheeting and whatever else, to select a small group of runners for each race - some even bought in information. They would then distribute their bet over the small group of runners, usually by using a cheap dutching program. The size of the group varied between about 3 to 5 runners.

Obviously the key to the whole process was putting in the hard yards doing the research.

Good luck with your punting.