Styx,

I think it better to stick to 'good' betting races to select from and ignore the rest [there is always tomorrow]. Today at Sandown they were races 3/5/6. open handicap, 1 city win handicap and a mares race. My only 3 bets today.

All 3 I thought the fav. could be rolled. I won on R5 Surprise impact $3.90, with a 2nd. in R5 with Tantat Secret $2,40p.[I had a win only bet] and also won on R6 with Princess Ali an easy selection on weights and due to its bad jump last start and the fav. Kepola [just beat Princess Ali who ran third last start this distance] up in weights. Payed $9.44 AIS and $9 Stab.

There were other races there that as it turned out would have been easy to select but the winners [2] were poor odds considering the race type [3yr. old fillies and worse races. etc.]. A doodle of a day. I wish they where all this easy.

I have done some research over some 20,000 races.

This is a Value Rule I have come up with.

If one is targeting 3 horses in the market e.g.(2nd,3rd,4th Favs) price on those 3 have to add up to a total div of approx $22.00+ (21.00 is ok) before it becomes a bet.

If targeting 4 horses e.g.(2,3,4,5th Favs), the market price has to total $34.00+ (33.00 is OK)

When one is calculating this , its simpler to round off the divs that one is looking at, to get the approximation.

This is done so as to be betting equivalent to 1/1 ($2.00).

I beleive one has to try & bet to approx 1/1+ as much as possible so as to absorb the natural run of outs that are unavoidable & avoid constant odds on betting as much as possible , so as to minimise the slow death syndrome that comes with it after a few outs.

One should find, following the value rule above, that they will either break even or be in front over say 40 bets, at level stakes, same amount on each.

We are then hoping ,that Dutching will make the opportunity for profit greater because of its proportional betting nature.

I would be leaning towards outlaying the same amount for each race but having the amounts staggered on each horse in proportion to their price.
That way we can take greater advantage of the larger payers that may come along.

Cheers.

__________________
Cheers.

Good one Bagman, nothing like a good 'theory' :-)

I'd like to see that little lot worked out and done 1 min. before the jump. And wow, now I have the bets on, look at all the SP prices dramatically changing on the horses I'd so carefully worked out the correct betting ratios for [heck, my bets in total are now well into odds-on as they jump] !!! . Ho Ho.

On a more serious note, yes you could do that on track with the bookies [not on the tote], but If I handicapped a race and came up with 3 good chances [if 4 i wouldn't bet the race], why not just take the best price on a single bet? The money saved would be used on more of the same in other races. Your bets are going to get up enough to come out in front unless your handicapping is way out of wack.

I'm too lazy to work out the exact figures but I think a $2 a $3 and a $17 would be a vastly different prospect from a couple of $7s and an $8. Both add up to 22 but represent a very different percentage of the market. Your theory about getting better than 1/1 may well be correct but you need to sharpen up your maths to take advantage of it.

KV

correct kv, this is why a acceptable minimum price must be set, <3/1 or 4/1 makes this all a waste of time &, of course, the folding stuff.

& crash, all these calculations can be done & revised in seconds & bets placed as close to the jump as possible, around 5-10 seconds, sometimes a few seconds after the jump in my experience.

And the prices can still be changing [as any punter knows] after your bets are on no matter how late you get them on and how many bets are you going to miss trying that all the time? Plenty.

Apart from all that and having to very carefully select your races, the exercise might suit someone with absolutely no selection ability, just backing the 2nd. to 5th. If it is genuinely Dutched there are no big winners, just tiny ones regardless which horse wins [or doesn't].
It all seems like a big waste of effort and for what, a couple a bucks in front if your lucky and down the gurggler if your strike a run of winning favorites or a few bolters get up? It's a good theory perhaps, but the reality would be punting nonsense for the average Joe [IMHO :-)].

sure they can change & usually do, mostly a minimal amount which makes no difference either way in the long run.

& no, crash your not going to miss plenty, in fact the only missses should be due to factors outside your control, such as internet connection dropouts, or the dropkicker starter that cant tell time & jumps em early. it does require a degree of concentration to get it right, so of course it does not suite everyone.