Just concentrating on an individual horse and NOT assessing the race it has been entered for ..... I cannot go past consistent recent form as a starting point. All my research indicates that there are so many factors that can contribute to a horse running well below it's true ability it's IMPOSSIBLE to say with any certainty IF the horse will run close to it's ability. If you agree with this proposition then ..... those horses that have consistent recent form must be very good indeed, for instance maybe one or two of those runs where the horse has finished just out of a place (say 4th) might have been over unsuitable distance, unsuitable track / condition, might not have been fit etc, etc. Do we give enough credit for consistency, regardless of whether it's going up in class (country placing to Metro) .... I don't think we do.

The key here is consistency, class, and fitness I think.
Then again, the odds will usually take care of the class.

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Not to forget Wight.

Weight does not have as much value as it used to.