Last Friday I noticed that favourites (I only looked at races where the Betfair fave was under $3 and it was the pronounced fave) that almost immediately after the race-start that their Lay price on the Exchange was surprisingly less than their S.P. price.

However, if their Lay price was more than their S.P. price then they more often than not firmed during the race (in-running) to be under their S.P. price. And the few that did not firm did not win the race.

Yesterday I was not at my computer for a long time, but before the race I bet S.P. for $5 and then layed it on the Exchange for $6 for two of these races.

I ended up with an all-green field on both races for a profit of about $10.

I know this can be dangerous, but it might be something to keep in mind.

If I understand this correctly, you are backing first thereby restricting your loss to only the back bet - say a minimum of $5. That's not too dangerous really when your backing a shortish priced clear fave anyway.

Where is your lay bet going in at? Say your backing at $3, where would the lay bet go in? $2, $2.50, $1.01?

__________________
Never give up on a dream just because of the time it will take to accomplish it. The time will pass anyway.”

― Earl Nightingale

The Ocho.

It happens quite quickly, and not having Fox/Sky I'm at the mercy of the race-callers who fortunately seem to concentrate on the leaders.

That's right about my sequence of betting. I first bet the $5 on S.P. and as soon as it goes lower on the Exchange I then lay it for the amount of $6 providing its price is less than its S.P. price. Currently I don't have a set lay-price because it can be a matter of opinion - the words and the tone of the voice of the race-caller can be very helpful because it gives a hint how the horse is going, and if one gets the impression that it is going to be hard to beat one can therefore wait a little longer expecting its lay price to lower, or even not lay it.

Yesterday in one race I offered a price of around $2.10 on the Exchange which was the current lay price but because it can happen quite quickly it's price immediately fell and I was matched at $1.10 - I seem to remember it was fairly late in the race and I got the impression from the race-caller that the horse was well in front and nothing was going to catch it.

I expect there to be instances where the race-caller may say it can't win, and if it's price is not too high I might lay it hoping the caller is right.

Out of interest there has been one race today that has already been run in which the fave was about $3.60 S.P. yet its first lay price was less than $3.60. It ended up losing the race.

This isn't my type of betting but I expect to do it every now and then. I would presume watching the race on T.V. makes it a little easier to gauge the chance of the fave winning.

OK. Thanks mg.

__________________
Never give up on a dream just because of the time it will take to accomplish it. The time will pass anyway.”

― Earl Nightingale