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22nd May 2007, 01:50 AM

Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline

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Join Date: Jan 1970

Posts: 4,367

BB-2007

Love it, hate it or don't care - there's a market on it and money to be made.

Big Brother 7 - Winner

Travis - $4.60

Travis looks to be overs @ $4.60 and has the character to take it out, along with personal hardships that endear him to the crowd.

Thomas
5.7

Thomas is poor value and would take lay odds up to 100/1

andrew
4.1

Andrew is playing the game, but poorly, it's too obvious with his outbursts of anger and crying which are getting tiresome. These types never last long.
Poor value and will be lucky to make it to the top 5.

Billy
9.6

Billy could be in the last three easily, but doesn't have the character or presence to take it out.

Aleisha
10.5

Another endearing character with personal tragedy. She's way overs here and is my second pick to take it out.Should be no more than 5/1, everybody in the house likes her.

Joel
6.2
Not enough to his repertoire to put him over the line, comedians are entertaining and he could make it as far as top three but he cannot win.

Jamie
13.5
The nerd of the house, also could end up in the finalists, but he's playing the game from the "poor me" angle. He's unders at $13.50 There's nothing about his personality that will get teen votes.

Susannah
17
The self absorbed beauty queen.
Teen girls won't vote to keep her in.

Zoran
3.75
No, he's getting far too many votes, doing to many things wrong, and not lively enough, nor endearing. Way too short at those odds.

Emma
40
The ice queen
Emma will be out within four weeks max (only because of intruders being voted out first). The only reason she hasn't gone is because twists saved her.

Rebecca
40
An anomoly, she's not lively either and very straight, but it could go either way depending on the next month. Keep safe.

Any Other
11.5

Waaay to short!

I would lay any other up to 100/1.

Remembering we're talking about gambling here, I'm going to have a sizeable split bet between Travis, Billy and Aleisha, weighted heavily towards Travis.

I'm going to "lay" Thomas and Zoran at the lay odds.

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6th June 2007, 09:10 PM

rith

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Join Date: Jun 2005

Posts: 18

i hope emma goes this week

Cant stand her.

shes paying 1.30 on centrebet to be evicted

she was $5 when the odds were first out..

24th June 2007, 05:11 PM

Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline

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Join Date: Jan 1970

Posts: 4,367

Updated

Big Brother 7 - Winner

Travis - $4.60

Thomas
5.7

andrew
4.1

Billy
9.6

Aleisha
10.5

Joel
6.2

Jamie
13.5

Zoran
3.75

Any Other
11.5

With Emma, Susannah and Rebecca now gone, and tonight two of the guys, my bets are looking rock solid. The $10.50 about Aleisha was a gift and a quadruple overlay, the support for her has skyrocketed massively and her odds have tumbled. Looks like I might be able to back and lay for a no risk profit in the very near future. The back bets are locked in for Travis, Aleisha and Billy with a weighting towards Travis and the lay bets are locked in for Zoran and Thomas.

I can see being able to easily secure a profit regardless of who wins, unless it's a rank outsider.

24th June 2007, 08:46 PM

Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline

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Posts: 4,367

Both Andrew and Thomas gone.

The Thomas lay bet already home.

The field narrows again for an almost guaranteed profit.

25th June 2007, 07:31 AM

Chuck

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Join Date: Jan 1970

Location: Sydney

Posts: 3,145

hey chrome, i backed aleisha at $17 near the start, tossing up whether to lay her now, wait for the odds to come in even further (shes at $4.70 but the eliminated guys are still short in betting), or just let it ride. don't watch the show myself so i don't have any idea of the dynamic

25th June 2007, 06:53 PM

Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline

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Join Date: Jan 1970

Posts: 4,367

Chuck,

By my calculations I reckon her true odds are about $4.00 maximum.

It's Aleisha and Travis neck and neck turning for home, three lengths clear of Billy, who's starting to grab the bit and make a run.
Joel will make a final burst down the outside in the straight, and Jamie's saddle has shifted

Every year I'm forced to watch the show by my family, so I may as well make a buck for all the trauma of watching Gretel

30th June 2007, 06:08 AM

Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline

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Join Date: Jan 1970

Posts: 4,367

Betfair still have the evicted housemates in the market, why?????

Anyway, I've already collected on Thomas.

The bets still standing are:

Travis - $4.60 Back

Billy - $9.60 Back

Aleisha - $10.50 Back

Zoran - $3.75 Lay

Current odds are:

Travis - $2.44 Back

Billy - $7.80 Back

Aleisha - $5.20 Back

Zoran - $23.00 Back

So it's time to reset the positions, I might wait til Sunday's eviction because there will be some really big movements after. However I'm going to take the no risk options on Zoran now.

I'm 1 unit ahead on Thomas.

I've Layed Zoran @ $3.75 and have just backed him @ $22.00 (Average Odds)

Therefore, should Zoran win leaving out the accounting of Billy Travis and Aleisha for the moment I will have scored 22/1 (including the loss on the lay bet and the profit on Thomas).

Should Zoran be evicted, there is a neutral effect.

There is money to be made on this stupid show, and it's easy money

The Any Other odds of 12/1 are looking an extremely attractive lay option right now, but I believe they will tumble with the public wanting to see more of Michelle in the coming weeks. Therefore I have now backed Any Other @12/1 and will lay at shorter odds in a few weeks.

She will be there for a few weeks, and possibly make it to final three like Vesna, but she's not going to tbe in the final two, she's far too abrasive.

The other thing that's going to trim the odds massively is Zac, there is huge support for him now. (can't stand him myself, but that doesn't matter).

Last edited by Chrome Prince : 30th June 2007 at 06:16 AM.

20th July 2007, 05:29 PM

Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline

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Join Date: Jan 1970

Posts: 4,367

A recap and profit lock update....

There are now only two weeks left (doesn't Billy know it).

I have won a unit on Thomas' eviction.
Zoran is a no loss if evicted, and 22/1 if he wins.
I have backed any other @ 12/1 and consider them overs because Zac is quite popular.

I've backed Travis @ $4.60 early on, and have just layed him @ $3.70
I've backed Billy @ $9.60early on, and just layed him @ $7.40
I've backed Aleisha @ $10.50 early on, and just layed her @ $2.86

Billy, Travis, Aleisha and Zoran are no risk bets.
I've won a unit on Thomas.
If Joel wins, I lose nothing, but make one unit from Thomas' eviction.
If Zac wins, I get 12/1, if he loses I'm square (again because of Thomas).

I cannot lose, no risk

The best result for me is in this order:

Zoran wins (Highly unlikely)
Zac wins (possible, but unlikely)
Aleisha wins (quite possible)
Billy wins (unlikely, he's trying too hard to impress now, and it's fake)
Travis wins (quite possible)
Joel wins (the bolter who could surprise, but I don't think so).

The effective 8/1 about Aleisha looks a gift

There are six housemates left, I have locked in 8/1, 22/1, 12/1 about three of the six.

Last edited by Chrome Prince : 20th July 2007 at 05:40 PM.

20th July 2007, 06:43 PM

suds

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Join Date: Jan 1970

Posts: 641

nice work CP

#10

22nd July 2007, 08:05 PM

Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline

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Posts: 4,367

Joel, my worst result if he won, has just been evicted.

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