Smartgambler
Pro-Punter

Go Back   OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums > Public Forums > Horse Race Betting Systems
User Name
Password
Register FAQ Search Today's Posts Mark all topics as read

To advertise on these
forums, e-mail us.

 
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Prev Previous Post   Next Post Next
  #1  
Old 3rd May 2012, 08:45 PM
peter m peter m is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 82
Default Question about how much can bet without driving down the price too far

I'd like to ask the learned folks here a question re how much money can you bet on a horse or the place and how much it will knock down the price. I remember a poster here some time ago called Kenchar whose posts I followed with great interest and he was talking about betting half a weeks wages for the place but was concentrating on the first or second favourite I think from memory

I've also been looking at a place method. Unfortunately the bets are few and far between so to make it all worthwhile, (after further testing to see if it works at all over the long term) the amount bet needs to be fairly large, say $100 minimum.

Was looking at Unitab on Tuesday 1st May and saw a possible selection, race 4 Townsville horse 1. It actually won paying $25.00 and $5.90 for the place. After looking at the place pool I'm thinking that a place bet of $100 would knock the price down a bit.

Forgive me if my maths are not correct but I figured it something like this. Place pool was $9823, take out 16% which leaves $8251. Divide the $8251 by $5.90 and this shows $1398 bet for the place on this horse?? Don't know if my reasoning is corect here.

Anyway, if $100 was bet on this horse it would increase the pool to $8351, new amount bet on horse no1 would be $1491. $8351 divided by $1491 would give the new place price of $5.57, rounded down to $5.50.

First of all is my maths and reasoning correct and would a bet of this size affect the didvident so much?

Thing is, the whole thing depends on getting the right price so if a bet drove the price down too much it would make the whole excersise pointless. I realise that the shorter priced nags wouldn't be as affected by a largish bet but sometimes it's the longer priced ones that contribute to the overall profit.

Sorry about the long winded question and if it all seems like Double Dutch......(am I allowed to say that in these P.C times?)
Thanks in advance for any replies.
Reply With Quote
 


Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On
Forum Jump



All times are GMT +10. The time now is 10:34 AM.


Powered by: vBulletin Version 3.0.3
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
©2008 OZmium Pty. Ltd. All rights reserved . ACN 091184655