Hi all,

I've spent the last 4 years following the horses seriously, spending countless amounts of hours on the computer and filling about 30 excercise books full of systems. Althogh it was fun i just dont have the time to do it anymore. Over the years i've come up with a few systems that have been quite successful so i'm going to put them on this thread. Here goes.

SYSTEM 1

Grab the morning paper and circle all favs for any race/meeting. From these selections only consider the horses that have a jockey or trainer that has made the top 100 list on racenet.com.au. With the selections you have now you need to compare their barrier postion they had in their last race to the barrier they have in today's race(i use ozeform.com.au). You now need to do the same thing with their weight. Add the two differences together then add the position of their last race.

For eg.

Barrier weight Last position
Last race- 2/11/2005 4 56.5 2/10

Todays race 5 56.5

Difference 1 + 0 + 2 = 3


Your selection will be the horse that has the lowest score under 5

This system works well with place selections. I followed it for about 10 weeks and from 60 selections there was 51 place getters. Ave div was between
$1.5 - $2.

SYSTEM 2

I followed Mark Reids hot tips for about 3 months and although they weren't very consistant he did have a bit of success with horses that were first race back from a spell. The above Barrier, weight, position system works very well with his selections. In 3 months their was only 7 selections but all 7 came in winners so it's worth a look at.

SYSTEM 3

This system works well with midweek races. Big juicy odd's are quite common with this one.

The rules are simple, Only consider horses that have raced in a Group 1,2 or 3
in at least one of it's last four races and is the only horse in the field to have done so. With the right filters it could work a lot better but odd's up to $15 are common.

These systems do need a bit of patience but can be rewarding. Best of luck

Cheers, Bigwaz

Sorry that barrier weight position bit didn't work well. I'll try it again


Last race 2/11/2005 Barrier(4) Weight(56.5) L/pos(2/10)

Todays race Barrier(5) Weight(56.5)

Sorry to hear, it seems like your giving the game away.

4 years is nothing my friend.

I've been searching, researching, learning, testing and analyzing for 24 years, with the last 5 years almost fulltime.

I've finally got to a point where it's all falling into place, and can now be compensated for all the time and effort for the next 24 years.

There are no miracles in this game, and to find even a 10% edge is getting harder and harder as time goes on.

But it can be extremely financially rewarding and satisfying to prove to yourself and to "others" that it can be done.

Had I been a little smarter and not been steered by the so-called professionals in the wrong direction, I could have cut this time ten fold to arrive where I am.

The best piece of advice I can give, which I wish I had years ago....

"It's not just about picking winners, the most obvious horse will most probably be the least value. There is value in every race, you just have to look for it. The most favoured in the tipsters poll, the most popular jockey, the best stable, the highest strike rate, the best form, the highest class, the shortest price, will all lead you to a high strike rate, but a loss - UNLESS you find within all of that something that the public is generally not aware of - AN EDGE."

Best of luck.

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I have only been at it for 15 years but it has only been in the last 3 years my attitude has changed toward what i should be looking for to find a winning formula.....i have decided that form is not the best thing to look at because thats what everyone else is doing i now concentrate on numbers and percentages and with all the new betting types that are being offered i am sure that one day i will find the answer in these figures

"It's not just about picking winners, the most obvious horse will most probably be the least value. There is value in every race, you just have to look for it. The most favoured in the tipsters poll, the most popular jockey, the best stable, the highest strike rate, the best form, the highest class, the shortest price, will all lead you to a high strike rate, but a loss - UNLESS you find within all of that something that the public is generally not aware of - AN EDGE."

certainly agree there Chrome, after my 25 yearsof punting having tried every method available I've yet to find one particular method that standouts from the rest, so now I concentrate most of my time on getting the best prices on offer.

For example, just backing number 1 on the tote will lose you about 12 cents in the dollar. Getting the best of the three totes would reduce that to about 7 or 8 cents as a guess. So if you can gain an extra 10 per cent from an exchange then youre about breaking even, and thats just using one criteria only. Not suggesting that its that easy but I am saying for me its now more about getting the best price rather than spending oodles of time with form.

AS a matter of interest chrome, the topweight and ranked 1 api in handicaps only?

The form is more or less done for us anyway with the prices on offer. True,some will be over priced or underpriced but the time it takes to work that out I think can be better spent investing more wisely. And toget value my weight ratings would need to be fairly accurate,and there are some factors you just cant build in.

Ron,

Ranked 1 by API
TAB 1
Handicaps Only

22.11% S/R
-18.75% Loss On Turnover

__________________
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Now with over 402,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/05/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
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If the system worked that well why did u give it up???

Thanks chrome,strike rate not bad but loss on t/o not good. Would figure in a few systems no doubt.

I must be the 'old man' of the forum with [getting close to it] 40yrs. at it [punting:-)]. What I have learned is forget looking for 'the winner', look for the right price for your selection. If you can't get it, ignore the race. You will come out on top in the long run.

Look at it this way: If you average SR is 1 out of 10 or 4 out of 10, you are looking for odds for your selections that leave you in profit. Backing winners is pretty useless otherwise.
Something else to think about if you are totally bamboozled by the game, consider the fact that 31.5% of favorites win [but you'll still be out of pocket backing them]. If you can spot just 5% of favorites you think will lose and back the rest, your ahead of the game. Increase that to 10% and your making very good money. It's as simple as that :-)

The only other thing of significance I've leaned over all these years punting is that 'women and horses will always make fools of men'.

I've succeeded very, very well in achieving my last point.

Hi crash, the trouble with eliminating a few false favourites is that while the strike rate will improve, the odds of the remaiining winners will probably shrink because the ones you eliminate may be obvious to most others. Unless you can find favourites that fallover quite regulary at short odds that most others miss.