Ratings staking help

I am after some advice on the best way to stake ratings. I am looking at betting the top three horses. I have played round with a few different ways so far, and am just trying to find the most efficient way. So far I have gone through yesterdays racing and bet with three different methods.

method 1:
1 unit on each horse

method 2:
3 units on shortest, 2 on second shortest, and 1 on longest price horse

mthod 3:
3 units on horses under $5, 2 on the $5-$10, and one on anything over $10

These are the raw results from yesterdays results

Method 1:
8% LOT

Method 2:
10% LOT

Method 3:
12% LOT

In a few of those raw results, even though one of the horses won, the result was a negative due to the horse not paying with a high enough divi to break even. Particualry in races with a horse odds on, I am unsure the best way to play those races as of yet.
Anybody got some other ideas on the best way to stake the top three? Am not so keen on dutching them outright, as it seems you miss the value in the $20 winner that gets up every so often.

And also thoughts on what to do when one of my top 3 are short in the market?
Theres three ideas I have in regrds to this situation:
1: Back solely the short priced horse
2: Back my other two in the hope to snag some good odds if the shortie fall over
3: Skip the race.

So any thoughts on the above would be great.

P.S So far overall the rating are shwoing a tiny profit using method one that I outlined, however this is over a limited sample so far, so am perhaps doubtful wethre this will continue, but showing enough promise to spend some time trying to stake efficeintly.

Couldn't you convert your ratings to prices and use those???

or

Turn method 2 around and put the 3 units on the longest price horse, or just back the longest of the three in the market (and maybe in bigger fields the 2nd longest also) straight out. Forget about the others.

What does that look like?

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

Well betting solely the longest price of the three produced a 5% POT, however the strike rate is around 12%, which is lower than what I am comfortable with. Then looking at betting the longest two produced a 7% LOT.

Also ran over just backing the shortest price one and that had a POT of 1%. However, I need to run these figures over way more examples, at teh moment I have only had the time to run through wednesday races, so a small sample.

What is the strike rate of each of you 3 selections and thier average divi.

I have been down this path and you may find backing your top rated runner the best option, if you choose to back more i would just back your top 2 runners the same amount as long as the price is over $2.50 otherwise back just the one runner that race.

I have tried backing 3 selection and find the strike rate drops off a bit, you will get the odd winner with your 3rd and above selections but in the end they will cost you.

Some people will dutch the selection but this also is a bad idea as when you get the good priced winners in you will have smaller amounts on them.

As we always say if no profit at level stakes then it will fail so test each selection at level stakes and do the sums yourself.

Try this it should work well if using Betfair.

3 + 2 + 2 = 7

3 units goes on the shortest priced horse.
This means that the shoter priced only has to pay $2.33 to break even.
We need $3.50+ on the others to break even.

Cheers.

__________________
Cheers.

Turn the prices of your 3 runners into market values (MV =1/PRICE)
Total the 3 market values
Distribute your bet according to the inverse proportion of each MV against the total MV.

Example of a $10 bet to cover 3 runners -- A $2.50 B$3.50 C $5.00

MV of A= 1/2.5 = 0.4
MV of B = 1/3.5 =0.285 (round up to 0.3)
MV of C= 1/5=0.2
Total MV= 0.9

Units on A = 0.4/.0.9 x10 = $4.44
Units on B= 0.3/0.9 x 10 =$ 3.33
Units on C= 0.2/0.9x 10= $2.22

Round off odd cents to nearest dollar as required. Suggest round off higher to compensate for shortening prices.

Put the basic formulae into a calculator or spreadsheet and punch in total bet amount and runner prices when needed.