hI....this is my first time at this forum, has any one done any research on barrier positions, I find that barriers 2,4, and 7 have been fairly successful over a period of time,

Hi Col,

Welcome.

Only research I've done shows that barrier positions are over-rated. Because they are easy and require no working out amateur form analysts place too much weight on them. I have no figures to prove it but I would bet barrier 1 returns marginally more winners but significantly less percentage return of money than any other barrier.

As far as 2, 4 and 7 are concerned I think you're dreaming. Unless they have special mood lighting and soft music to calm the horse before the race in those particular barriers I can't see any reason, other than pure chance, why horses would come out of them any more successfully. Especially since you don't even narrow it down to a particular course.

Just in case I'm completely wrong (as I usually am) how many races do you base your observations on?

KV

Col, welcome. In a very small nutshell, barrier draws as Kenny points out are over-rated, not to mention an erroneous statistic. There is approx 3% difference between barriers long-term. Obviously there is always a horse in barrier 1, but not always in barrier 16, therefore no statisical relevance can be taken into account. Tip: Use another filter for your ratings. There is, however, a cavet. This pertains to horses drawn an inside barrier close to, or on the turn. In this case, they are favoured and the outside horses/barriers are disadvantaged.

Hope this helps.

Hi Eddy!
Stricktly speaking the term "there is always a horse in barrier 1" is not exactly true. "There is always a horse in the barrier closest to the rail" is the term I would use. Many times you will see barrier one empty. But I completely agree with your and KV's comments about the importance of barrier positions.
It is highly overrated.
Everything being equal it should make a difference.
But it rarely does.
The only time I take the Jockey into account is when the horse is starting from a wide barrier, a good jockey can minimise the disadvantage to almost nothing while a bad one can make it ten times worse.

Also a horse can miss the start from any barrier!
That's worse than a wide barrier.

As a matter of fact if there was any barrier I would avoid, it would be #1.
How many times did you see the fav boxed in?
Too much money lost on barrier one.

An interesting exercise to carry out , is to look at say the first & second TAB favs of say 150 races , allocate the figures to reflect wind barrier & inside barrier of the 2 said TAB Favs .
What one will find , is those 2 combined will have a SR of approx 44%
you will also see that the 2 columns will have almost the identical SR as one another , what one will also see ,is that the wider barrier of the 2 will end up with stronger dividends e.g. the dollar returns will be higher than the inside barrier of the 2 which tells us, that the general public overbet the inside barriers to actual chance.

Final conclusion, barriers make very little difference ,especially within 1-12 barrier positions,
but it could be a way of seeking value if one is confronted with a situation of 2 horses of equal ability , then back the wider barrier of the 2 for the sake of value especially on fast, good, tracks.

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Cheers.

Good Morning Everyone,

What are your thoughts on Eagle Farm 1800m? I have found the barrier guides in the sportsman very handy guide keeping in mind the what your horses profile is.

Cheers
Twodogs

Looking at barriers in a pure statistical form is of little or no relevance.

Barriers need to be considered in combination with a horse's racing style and the expected early pace of a race.

For example where a race has no designated leaders and only a small percentage of horses that like to race on the pace, then we can anticipate a slow early race pace and conclude barriers will be of little consequence.

However, I have seen time and again small fields of front running horses where a horse drawn barrier 8 can end up three wide as it competes for the lead. In this case an inside barrier is an advantage.

Understanding how a horse races, what is the likely early race pace and determining if the barrier is favourable or not will assist in finding winners in any race.


Cheers,
Luckyboy

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Form is Temporary, Class is Permanent.

Great stuff Luckyboy, posts that give some insight into how races actually work are what I hope for when I log on to this site.

Thanks,

KV

Luckyboy makes good pointers as to how barriers should be evaluated.I however agree also with col, barriers 4-6 are important to me when deciding on a bet amount.
When taking a tri i will often throw in roughies drawn either side of my main selection

And is there some logic behind this strategy or is it just a random way to select roughies?

KV