Hi all,

I had one bet last night at Canterbury night races, Race 4-3 Iceskates. It was a drifter in the market and started second fav. At it's previous run it ran a big race at Rosehill over 1400 coming from last in a field of 12 for a very good finish, sectional times by far the best in the race. Last night it was over 1550 at Canterbury, and I had a gut feeling that knowing Canterbury it would NOT be suited there, but of course I still backed it. Sure it went back towards the tail and did nothing in the straight, along with other backmarker horses. The race was won by a horse that led all the way.

The obvious question here is, does anyone have any sort of stats for certain tracks, (mainly sydney and melbourne), as to winners coming from leaders/on pacers/mid race/backmarker type horses, you know what I mean. I guess the distance plays a roll here also.

Any thoughts..??

Regards, Paul

Paul, check the track stats on racing and sports website. They have winning stats for the position of the horse 400m out. Races 1200m and less seem to heavily favour horses that are positioned in the first 4 at the 400m mark for most tracks. Tracks with longer straights such as Rosehill, Randwick, Flemington and Sandown, for example will favour back markers a little more, especially as the distance gets longer.
It can also help if you can figure out if there will be lots of early pace in the race. If there is, your backmarker can swoop late as the leaders tire at the end.

Backmarkers run well when a race has genuine pace [sure, some tracks better than others depending on track condition, rail position, distance etc.]. Genuine pace means 2 or more leaders in a race. Without them Backmarkers have little hope and it will be a jog and sprint [1200m or more] won by a single leader, an on-pacer or midpacer. Mostly anyway :-)