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  #1  
Old 5th May 2006, 09:51 PM
Mancunian Mancunian is offline
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Default Wet Weather Winners

I'm sure you've had the experience of studying the form intensely for hours and then late on Friday it pours raining. You are sitting there with your form guide full of ticks and crosses and circled numbers and underlinings and question marks, and now it is absolutely hissing down outside, and you aren't sure - to bet , or not to bet, that is the question.
Well going back a few years - when it did used to rain ( - probably this applies to the the southern half of Australia only - ), when black clouds came over it caused kindergarten kids to run inside screaming, 2 y-o colts used to go berserk, and when footy players used to get muddy shorts, it was a chance to back the wet trackers. I didn't have much time to study form in those days, so in the interest of having a bet I used a very simple method of picking potential winners very quickly that was quite successful. This was a while ago so I have no records or stats, more of a perception that I generally ended in front.
Recently when I read the mechanical longshots selection thingo, principle of starting at the highest number and looking for "c d" form reminded me.
I used virtually the same idea but for heavy track days only. Rules are as follows.

Only applies when track is HEAVY.

Start at highest number (bottom weight) and highlight horse with WIN on heavy track.

A.If there is only one horse that qualifies on the set weight that is the selection.
B.If there are more than one horses on the same weight, make a selection based on your own experience of which is the best contender using performance on track, at the distance, barrier, jockey etc.
If you are left with two horses, consider backing both - or if more ignore the race.
Applying this to Flemington races tomorrow (Sat 6 May) I came up with the following :
from rule A
R1 #7 Speedy Rossa (showing $11)
R2 #6 Il Favorito (showing $17)
R3 #2 Alim (showing $15)

from rule B
after using some of the separation criteria mentioned above :

R4 #9 Reggie ($5.50) (Win percent 26%, #8 was 8%)
R5 NO BET - too many contenders
R6 #12 Jygah ($11) (#10 and #11 not done much at 1600)
R7 #13 Sensational Swing ($17) (#9 and #10 only won on slow)
R8 #8 Blue Collar Jack ($11) (#13 ave prz mny abt $3000 - outclassed,-#11 slow only).

No more rainy day blues

Cheers
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  #2  
Old 6th May 2006, 09:57 PM
Mancunian Mancunian is offline
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Results (Vic TAB)

R1 #7 3rd -- 2.80

R2 #6 0 -- --

R3 #2 0 -- --

R4 #9 Won 2.10/1.10

R6 #12 Won 8.30/2.40

R7 #13 2nd -- 3.20

R8 # 8 Scratched

For a win - outlay $6.00 return $10.40

For a place - outlay $6.00 return $9.50

Beginners luck ?

Cheers.
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  #3  
Old 7th May 2006, 11:22 AM
Mancunian Mancunian is offline
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Sandown Heavy today - so let's have another go

Rule A
R3 #6 - Draw The Sweep
R4 #4 - Moxie's Jewel
R5 #8 - Bee Three
Rule B
R8 #10 - Certain Spirit (preferred to #11 second up)
Too many contenders in the other races.
---------------------------------------------------
Just for fun I thought I'd have a small interest only at Echuca which is also a Heavy track. Selections there are :
R6 #8
R7 #12
R8 #13

Kilmore is also Heavy but the fields have been decimated by scratchings.

Cheers
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  #4  
Old 8th May 2006, 07:54 PM
Mancunian Mancunian is offline
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Results for Sun7 May

Sandown

R3#6 won $4.00/2.10

R4#4 unpl

R5#8 unpl

R6#10 3rd NTD

fun bets at Echuca were no good

Will stick to metro - won over the 2 days

As limited to heavy tracks only not a great many bets will occur, but the beauty to me is when you used to wake up on Sat morning and hear the words "heavy track", what was a disappointment, not to mention the wasted time and effort that you'd spent picking the winners, now this system might be a nice consolation.

Cheers
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  #5  
Old 10th June 2006, 10:08 AM
Mancunian Mancunian is offline
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Smile

Randwick Heavy today.

The only horses with WINS in HEAVY that I could see were :

R2 #5 Trinity Song (won 1 out of 1)
R4 #8 Flash Phantom (1 of 1)
R5 #4 Gumnuts (1 of 1)
R5 #5 Zarouk (3 out of 4)
R6 #8 Beautiful Sally (1 of 1)
R8 #6 A Fairy's Kiss (1 of 1)

In race 5 where there are 2 selections, I would pick Zarouk with 3 wins out of 4 starts is probably the best of the day.
According to morning prices should be some good each-way value in these.
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  #6  
Old 29th June 2007, 09:27 PM
Mancunian Mancunian is offline
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So we've started to regularly get heavy tracks again - I tought I'd revisit this quick and easy way to settle on some wet weather winners.
For tomorrow - Sat 30 Jun - I come up with :

Sandown
R2 #9
R3 #11
R4 #9
R5 # 9
R6 #17
R7 # 15
R8 #13

Randwick
R1 #2
R2 #7
R3 #6
R4 #4
R5 # 8 and 9
R6 # 7 and 9
R7 #8
R8 #13

Not expecting a great strike rate but think I'll have plenty of action and should be a bit of value.

Any'ow - see how we go

cheers............Mancunian
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