Here is a plan for those who like to follow Tipsters.
7 Days a week.

RACES 1-5 ONLY
Concentrate on the 1st 5 races only.
Target the top 2 selections of your chosen tipster E.g. TABQ first 2 selections or any other prefered source.

The reason why we target the 1st 5 races only, is the stats show over 10,000 races ,that the avereage tipster will strike the winner within their top two , 36% of the time.
Races 6 onwards show a 28% SR in their top 2.
That`s a wopping 8 point difference in SR , or in real terms , you will strike 33% more winners following the first 5 races as opposed to races 6-8+

Most Favored columns in the tipsters polls E.g. Weekend Australian or any other tipsters poll, have a 45% SR for their top 2 & has been that same figure for years. It appears as a recurring statistic ,which is something one should maybe hone in on to maybe improve ones chances.

One could create their own tipsters poll from say 5 different tipping sources.
By taking each sourse`s 3 selections & applying 3,2,1 pts . so as to create the desired poll . then target it`s top 2.

It has shown over the years that a conscences poll always has a higher SR than an individual tipster.
On the other hand ,the divs are also usually lower, approx $4.00 so the POT potential is approx the same but higher SR.

1/5th. INSURANCE BET
Use your favorite method of separating 2 horses.
Now bet 5 units a race.
Place 4 of those units on your favored horse (Best Selection) to win & 1 unit on the other one to win ,as a saver bet, so as to protect one`s bank from our lousey separation process if it should let us down for a while.
What we are doing is taking out 1/5th for insurance.

A SEPARATION PROCESS
Your separation process could be to make your selection selection, to be the one with the WORST last start. This is done to maximise value.
If a draw , take the one with the BEST second last start, ext.
Always favour the horse that has had 2+ starts over the horse that has had only one career start.

Bet 4 units on your Best selection & 1 unit on your Other selection.
Now if one had a 75% SR of selecting the Best of those 2 horses.
The POT would be approx 32% based on one selection per race.
E.g. 36% Top 2 SR @ 75%=27%SR of ones 1st selection @ average price of $4.90=32% POT .

This of cource will be lower if taking the saver bet as well which would work out at 15% POT because we are betting 2 horses instead of 1 only ,this is done to protect the bank from a dreaded long run of outs ,which may come along.
It also keeps it more interesting as a punter , because we have 2 Mules running for us instead of 1 Mule which chooses to run 2nd all day , just like we knew it would.

All bets can be layed at once, great for those who like to set & forget ,so as to do other things.

With the average price being $4.90 it is easier to get 1 winner in 5 to break even , than it is to get 2 winners in 8 , so mathematically ,one has a punting edge ,which is something professional punters bring up all the time.

Greater POT is acheived if stopping at the first winner of our Best selection, for each venue within the first 5 races.
So ,when one of our Best selections gets up at that venue , cease punting that venue & continue with the other venues.

Check it out.

__________________
Cheers.

Hi Bhagwan,

Another interesting post. Thanks.

Couple of questions. Where does the average price of $4.90 come from?

[quote]Bet 4 units on your Best selection & 1 unit on your Other selection.
Now if one had a 75% SR of selecting the Best of those 2 horses.
The POT would be approx 32% based on one selection per race.
E.g. 36% Top 2 SR @ 75%=27%SR of ones 1st selection @ average price of $4.90=32% POT.[unquote]

I had a look at your suggestion with yesterday's QTAB. I think it was 6/10 venues came up with the first winner in Race 1 --- but all were at very short prices. Two or three of the others produced a winner within three; but one (Newcastle) did not have a winner in the first five races! Do you have any suggestions about a staking plan given the above?

I guess you can only accept +$3.00 or something like that; but I fear you would have very few bets --- at least on a Saturday. Comments?

I note last Sat had a number of short price Mules getting up , but that is not the normal situation . We cant base one Sat. as a basis for all Saterdays ,otherwise we might be all millionaires by now.
I think you will find the Bookies copped a hiding that day.

The price idea mentioned is a good one & should be done if one is betting race to race , this is where the dicipline thing comes into it.

The average price was from thousands of races from the past , whenever a large payer gets up now & then , it pushes the average right up.

It`s a funny thing with race one , I have never understood why the favs in these races pay so very short whenever they get up.

__________________
Cheers.

Thanks for the response, Bhagwan. Have been away for a couple of days so have just read it. Its encouraging that the average prices over time are a bit above the returns of last Sat. --- but a win is a win is a win as they say

Hi Bagman,

I think you are onto something as most favourite wins come from the early races. Price has to be the key here and any favourite stating at more than say $3 has a good chance of being a genuine overlay. Very short priced fav. mean very obvious fav. and they are always over-bet and therefore poor value and a bad bet.

Am I on the right track here ?

anyone got any long term stats of winning favs race1 to 8? I'm curious to see if there is a significant difference. The way I see it is that all we have to do to win is iether increase the S/R OR increse the divies. So lets say the S/R improves from 30% to say 35% for the first 5 races then we must be close to the grail??

We've done this before. I think someone worked out that it goes something like this:

R1: 32%
R2: 31%
R3: 31%
R4: 30%
R5: 30%
R6: 29%
R7: 29%
R8: 28%

Might even have been a slightly bigger difference from R1 to R8, but I think that's fairly close.

thats the end of that idea then

I mentioned this topic quite some time ago and got howled down big time.My original post was about favs in the first 4 races on the card.Since then I have pruned it back to the first 3 races at any venue,and my s/r is a very healthy 33%.
I do have a strict criteria for eliminating what I consider to be false favs,and this helps no end.I also use the power of ten with it,and I have to say I have turned my punting around.No,it's not the holy grail,but it has taught me discipline for once in my life.Take a look at last Sat.
Brisbane
2/3
Sydney
1/3
Adelaide
3/3
Perth
1/3

Purpleheart68, 33% is very respectable. I've had several plans that have produced up to 40% S/R but frustratingly the corresponding divies decreased to leave us in roughly the same position. (about 5-10%LOT)