Hi,

I've been punting for many years and have my ups and downs, as do most..

Often been interested in finetuning my betting side... (the form side does ok)

Can anyone throw some light on wether Proportional Betting is better than straight out betting?

My Definitions, so we don't get sidetracked on to missundestandings..

Proportional betting is when you vary the size of your bet in accordance with the odds (value) you can get, and comes in two forms..

(1) Proportional betting (A) : A target amount divided by the available odds e.g. $100 / $2.50 = a bet of $40 to return you $100 if sucessfull (including your stake)

and
(2) Proportional betting (B): A target amount divided by the available odds-1 e.g. $100 / ($2.50 -$1.00) = a bet of $67 to return you $167 if sucessfull ($100.00 clear profit)

(3) Straight out betting say I have $40 to bet with (some porportion of my bank) so I bet it on the best price I can get, say its $2.50, or $3.00 I don't alter the stake just bet the whole $40.00


So readers, who thinks method 1,2, or 3 will be better of in the long term, given the average run of wins and loses you might expect? And who would have the least heart ache when a losing day or two is struck?

Love to hear some lively discussion on this, it poses a very interesting question don't you think?

Regards
OzPunter

For me definitely Method 1.

darky.

And your logic for saying this Mr. darky is?


OzPunter

I just like betting to my asessed price.

In your 6/4 example $2.50 = $40 then anything at this price or better would still have $40 placed on it.
If the bookie offered me 10/1 I would win $400.
A very simple,easy, and good way to keep track of your staking in my opinion.

Thats just what I would do.Everyone would have a different opinion.

Cheers.
darky

Sorry to keep you out of bed, but your last creates another question... Can you explain your logic behind how you create your own prices... I've tried it using the figures I handicap to and I get silly results, so how do you go about it... Just the concept and logic, I'm not probing for your formulas..


To clarify your responce to the last, you are saying that you create your own prices and then proportional bet to those prices? not the market on offer.. If your assesment is correct and you only bet when you have an overlay you'll make heaps...(providing your assesment is accurate of course)


Regards

OzPunter

Hi Oz,,,got some interesting advice from a full time punter ..

He stakes depending on how much his top rater is ahead of the next rated horse,,
example..
Black Ink 2.80
Sir Monashee 5.5
Foxmore 6.20
Black Suit 8.50

his top rater is 2.7 ahead of the next rater ..he would then have a scale
1.5 / 2 he would outlay $100
2 / 2.50 $200
2.5 / 3 $300
ect

so in this case he'd have backed Black ink for $300

I like his way of thinking and have been phantom trialling this recently for some good results..

I mostly bet proportionally around a set flat stake. The amount I bet depends on the overlay value of the bet. The lower the value, the lower the bet and vis-a-vis. This type of proportional betting particular suits punters who handicap their races [do the form].

I work out the overlay value by using my own priceline for what I believe are the winning chances in a race. Pricing is dependent on the number of winning chances and the field size of the race. I'll generally ignore races with more than 14 runners or races with too many winning chances [more than 4], except for the odd big Group or Cup race.

A punter needn't price every horse in a race, just the possible winning chances and after a bit of practice it's easy enough to to do in your head. It's more art than science.

Three good winning chances in race of 12 starters? OK, to work out an initial basic SP price, that's a 25% winning chance for each horse with a 25% chance for the rest of the field and the unexpected.
So my winning contenders have an initial 1 chance in 4 each or an SP of $5 each. Fine tuning kicks in now and from my [further] handicapping efforts I'll work out a final SP price for each winning chance. Which horse I back will depend on the prices offered [value], not just backing which of the three I think will win, because we are so often wrong [I'm chasing value, not what I think are 'winners'].

There is no rocket science involved here [just practice], because regardless of method, everyone ends up with an educated guess regarding a fair SP.
Among my winning chances I will often back a runner because of a large overlay above the SP price I've set for it, even though I think one of my other winning chances has a slightly better chance of winning.

EG: I backed Jokers Wild who came 3rd in the Cadbury Guineas because I picked it up at 27/1 early on Betfair and only just missed on a very large collect. It lost but it was still a very good bet because it almost pinched the race. Luckily I also backed JW for the place, which payed more than the winner Miss Finland [great win!] anyway.

Yesterday [Mond. 12th] I picked up Pinsemont (NZ) at the Valley, a good back-marker in an outside alley at 14/1. A very good chance against Fearless Waters, who at 4/1 was poorish value. Pinsemont ran over the top of them and I'd put twice as much on it as I would have on Fearless Waters [ 2nd]. Pinsemont was way over it's true odds as Back-markers in outside alleys often are, BECAUSE they are in outside alleys and most punters wouldn't know a back-marker from a on-pacer.

I used the same betting approach on Jillimarg in R4 at Morphetville. At 12/1 it was way overs, but it was just beaten by the favorite Maloose [3/1]. Win some, lose some.

Cheers.

Well said, crash.

__________________
All generalizations are dangerous.

Dear Crash & YoungBuck,

As you know I am very serious about mastering this art and remain willing to learn whenever I find a worthy contribution. Too many times I hear garbage uttered from people who claim to be professional and it only serves to cloud the field, but definately not so in your response Crash, You obviously know what you're talking about..

I'd love to learn more from you if you have the inclination to part with your hard won secrets you can contact me at OzPunter01@gmail.com for some private conversation..

Otherwise I'll take on board what you've said and put it in the "to be studied and examined " basket...

Thanks Again, Crash

Kind Regards
OzPunter