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#1
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Why system betting beats punting-long term
We have all had amazing runs punting at the races. Pick up the form guide and the winners seem to 'jump off the page!' Confidence is a wonderful thing.
On the other hand during a bad run of punting, one almost dreads looking at the fields. Instead of a horse jumping off the page, all you see is a maize of horses, appearing almost like the squares on a blank lotto form, with any donkey likely to salute. System betting, on the other hand, takes away the 'human frailty' element of betting. There is a methodical resume to go through before a horse is selected, and this resume never changes, irrespective of the financial situation. Naturally I am talking about systems using level stakes betting each week. However for this to occur one must have total confidence in the system. This is where the research is required, and importantly with any research, be totally honest with yourself. Do not fudge the figures in any way to increase your confidence, just do more research, if that is required. Don't be a smart alec and go on a racing forum and gloat (like I did) about your system. Apart from Murphy's law that often takes you out; you also have that 'human frailty' thing come back into play. That happened with an old bloke like me who should have known better. As a result I am going back to my professional ways and not posting my tips here. Its then just a contest between me and the bookies, and not a third party who I am trying to impress. I'll still go in the tipping contest here and as my system rarely picks horses over 6/1 so I can have a punt with no chance of losing!
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When I want to understand what is happening today or try to decide what will happen tomorrow, I look back... Omar Khayyam-1099 |
#2
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Enjoyed everyone of your posts davo, and I cannot agree more about the above snippet. It be way cool to have simple light convos after the event on our respective system's result/failures etc. My system of things, there is not much to say as the method picks them in such a way I cannot post selections prior. There ain't much to pick these days, everyone has a opinionated tip and there goes the Value. BTW, the word here , Value, ( grin ) has been a long drawwwnnnn out topic. But your opinion may settle some old scores, or start new ones! Is it "value" or "Value", or is 15/1 better than 6/1, or is 6/1 better than 15/1 My version of Value, is to Target for a 25 Unit profit where where the Cost of the bet does not exceed that Target, ( 100% ~Variable). This also applies to Hedged bets and depending on Price, my statistics usually work better with 1-3 runners. 4 runners and you start to blow out the Value concept within the price range of the most probable, where it becomes a no-bet due the Cost exceeding the Target, unless of course you increase the allowance to 30 Units to make 25 Unit Profit. Last edited by Puntz : 16th July 2013 at 09:08 AM. |
#3
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We are allowed 7 minutes to edit our posts, or contact the admin.
I could not be bothered, so I posted it again, edited. Quote:
Enjoyed everyone of your posts davo, and I cannot agree more about the above snippet. It be way cool to have simple light convos after the event on our respective system's result/failures etc. My system of things, there is not much to say as the method picks them in such a way I cannot post selections prior. There ain't much to pick these days, everyone has a opinionated tip and there goes the Value. BTW, the word here , Value, ( grin ) has been a long drawwwnnnn out topic. But your opinion may settle some old scores, or start new ones! Is it "value" or "Value", or is 15/1 better than 6/1, or is 6/1 better than 15/1 My version of Value, is to Target for a 25 Unit profit where where the Cost of the bet does not exceed that Target, ( 100% ~Variable -). This also applies to Hedged bets and depending on Price, my statistics usually work better with 1-3 runners. 4 runners and you start to blow out the Value concept within the price range where the most probable may sometimes exist,and where it becomes a no-bet due the Cost exceeding the Target, unless of course you increase the allowance to 30 Units to make 25 Unit Profit, (100% +). |
#4
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You're target/value idea is the only way to go in my opinion. However I think if a horse is blowing from say 3/1 fav to 6/1 I am extremely worried if I am on that horse. Similarly a 6/1 horse blowing to 10/1 has the nerves tingling. On the other hand if a horse opens at 6/1 and comes in to 3/1 late, I don't think about it costing me $300 but rather, that winning feeling is increased immeasurably. I am also much more confident if a horse in my system opens at a better price than I rated and doesn't move. I go for max 2 bets at present (past 5 years) but I did dabble with up to 4 over previous years. You obviously have a lot more hits than if you pick one or two. A good selection method can show huge profits for months but when you have that run of roughies winning it doesn't take long to wipe out the profits. I also went around 5 years back in the nineties where my rules were much looser and I had selections in up to 10 races out of the 32 or so.(betting in 4 states). Again I had some unbelievable runs, some up to 18 months. With 10 races it usually meant at least 20 bets and that's fine during the good times. However that bad run hit again and wiped me out! It was then very difficult to tighten up the rules as it often meant eliminating past winners that paid great dividends. However that's what I did, and there were tears of blood as I went back through my form-guides and put a line through many10/1 winners that were no longer in my system. Cheer mate and thanks again.
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When I want to understand what is happening today or try to decide what will happen tomorrow, I look back... Omar Khayyam-1099 |
#5
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One HAS to have an edge that is unique and can escape the reflection from prices or form data. |
#6
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Old Time Bookie Quote.
"Give me a man with a system.In the end he will have his system but I will have his money". |
#7
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(the corporate bookie variation)
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Michal - Ratings2Win Pty Ltd R2W Axis - Axis is Australia's leading horse racing software and database; with sophisticated form analysis tools and accurate horse performance ratings for TAB meetings. http://www.ratings2win.com.au/ |
#8
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Makes you think we should be at least aiming for a return resembling bank interest i.e. retain the capital and a marginal return on funds. Would be an impossible dream for 95%+ of us, me thinks. LG
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The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB |
#9
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I did not listen to this race, but what "system" would have picked it ?
2013/7/17/ VR/4 Werribee Distance: 1400M Weather: Fine Track: Heavy 10:UNE MOMENTO- WON PAID: W.45.50 P.6.80 (TATTS) TF 10* 12* 14 $2255.80 barrier:7 Weight:56.5 L3S:48X RATED:81 RIDER; J DAROSE That race more than likely would have had a jackpot Trifecta if it was not for this stupid partial Trifecta bet thing they have. But someone got it. The only "system" I see is heavy track, barrier 7, 1400 M putting heavy emphasis on the heavy track and barrier 7, fav was showing 1.50 What "system" gets these? None that I know of. |
#10
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...Whether it be with system or without.
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When I want to understand what is happening today or try to decide what will happen tomorrow, I look back... Omar Khayyam-1099 |
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